INTRODUCTION

Getting to the “Africa We Want by 2063” articulated in Chapter 2 will not be easy nor will it come automatically, and setbacks and reversals along the way cannot be discounted. There will be challenges but success will be assured if African countries build upon past achievements and capitalize on emerging opportunities, and draw upon the continent’s strong cultural and spiritual values.

This chapter analyses in four parts the progress, challenges and opportunities facing the continent in the context of attaining the vision for Africa in 2063.

Part I presents an overview of the continent’s drive for political unity and economic emancipation over the last 50 years. It looks at the political evolution of the continent, including establishment of the OAU and its eventual transformation into the African Union, and reviews attempts to plan the continent’s long-term economic development, through initiatives such as the Monrovia Declaration, the Lagos Plan of Action, the Abuja Treaty and others.

Part II takes stock of where the continent stands today; the progress and the challenges. The stocktaking is based on the seven aspirations outlined in chapter two, covering, social, political and economic development, as well as democracy and governance, peace and security, women and youth issues, culture, as well as Africa’s place in the global context.

Part III reviews the lessons from current responses to these challenges as reflected in national development plans of African countries, as well as regional and continental frameworks.

Finally, the chapter concludes by drawing the implications for Agenda 2063.

3.1         AFRICA THE PAST FIFTY YEARS (1963-2013):

The Quest for Political Unity and Economic Emancipation

3.1.1   Pan Africanism, decolonization, political liberation and independence

Article II of the OAU Charter •   Promote the unity and solidarity of the African States; •   Co-ordinate and intensify their cooperation and efforts to achieve a better life for the peoples of Africa; •   Defend their sovereignty, their territorial integrity and independence; •   Eradicate all forms of colonialism from Africa; and •   Promote international cooperation, having due regard to the Charter of the United Nations and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights

Pan Africanism emerged in the early 19th century as an important vehicle in the struggle of Africans and people of African descent for emancipation and the restoration of their dignity and against slavery, colonialism, and all forms of racism and racial exploitation. It was founded on the conviction that Africans have a common history, destiny, emanated from ancient cultures and civilizations and that Africa is the cradle of humankind. The various strands of Pan-Africanism converged into the founding of the OAU in 1963 and were crystallised in the major objectives of the organization, captured in Article II of the organization’s Charter.

The goals of the organization were to be achieved through the harmonization of African countries’ policies in all fields. The OAU had a mandate to pursue both a political and socio-economic agenda and did so in five main areas: decolonization; advancement of peace and security; promotion of democracy, human rights and good governance; fostering international relations and cooperation; and regional integration. However, the political agenda dominated, particularly issues of decolonization, liberation and the struggle against apartheid.

 

At the time the OAU was established, only thirty-two African countries were independent. Twenty- four achieved their independence thereafter out of which eleven received direct assistance from the OAU. Today with the exception of some six islands that are still under direct colonial rule: Chagos Islands (United Kingdom); St. Helena Island (United Kingdom), The Canary Islands (Spain); The Azores (Portugal); The Madeiras (Portugal); La Réunion (France); La Mayotte (France); and Ceuta and Melilla (Spain)], and other lingering colonial legacies, remarkable achievement has been registered in the decolonization of the continent and the abolition of the apartheid regime.

Developments leading to the establishment of the African Union

The establishment of the OAU was a challenging process, and this impacted on the fulfilment of its mission for political unity and economic emancipation. From the beginning Member States had divergent views on the nature of the African unity they were striving for6. Africa’s early leaders had adopted different ideologies as their respective national visions, thus both the objectives of African unity and the methods by which they would be promoted and achieved were therefore contested issues during the deliberations leading to the establishment of the OAU7.

These differences manifested into two groups: Monrovia and Casablanca8. The main issue was whether continental political unity was to be brought about immediately or set as a long-term objective, and gradually achieved through the consolidation of the newly independent nation- States, and through the creation of sub-regional groups as the building blocks. The Monrovia group pressed for immediate continental unity. The Casablanca group however, argued for a more gradualist approach and won the day and influenced the establishment of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) and its Charter.

The fact that the OAU Charter did not have a clear vision and strategy for the realization of continental unity affected its structures, organs and performance in general. As a result, some of the resolutions taken by the OAU policy organs and the strategies that were adopted were not fully implemented.

In the 1974 OAU summit in Mogadishu, African leaders critically reviewed OAU’s performance and urged reforms needed during the implementation of the African Economic Community (AEC) process. Ultimately, because of lingering challenges and the changing context the OAU and the AEC were transformed into the African Union.

The African Union

Some of the main challenges faced by the OAU, particularly in the political field, were a combination of its strict adherence to the principle of non-interference in Member States, its subordination to the interests of Member States and persistent financial difficulties. The Sirte Declaration of 1999 was a major effort to reform the organization.

The Constitutive Act of the African Union incorporates the objectives of both the OAU and AEC’s and brought in new elements, under its principles. These included more participation of the African citizens in the activities of the Union; the right of the Union to intervene in a Member State pursuant to a decision of the Assembly in respect of grave circumstances, such as war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity. These were in addition to “the right of Member States to request intervention from the Union in order to restore peace and security; peaceful co-existence of Member States and their right to live in peace and security; and promotion of self-reliance within the framework of the Union”. All this enabled the AU to perform better.

 

 

 

6   Capturing the 21st Century: African Peer review (APRM) Best practices and lessons Learned (UNECA (2011)

7   Ibid

8   Ibid

 

The AU has been able to put in place many important organs, such as, the Pan-African Parliament; the African Court of Justice; the Commission on Human and Peoples Rights; the Peace and Security Council; the Economic, Social, and Cultural Council. It has enhanced not only the involvement of people, including the Africans in the diaspora, but also its relations with Regional Economic Communities (RECs). Above all, Member States have agreed on the AU vision of “an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the international arena”.

In line with the above vision, the AU has formulated many frameworks and strategies in both the political and socio-economic fields, which are now being, consolidated as the African Union Agenda 2063. However, the central question of political unity, or the form it should take, remains unresolved; instead a strategy of building from the bottom through establishment of Regional Economic Communities has been adopted.

3.1.2   The Quest for Economic Emancipation

African countries had initially been preoccupied with nation building and the liberation of the continent, particularly in southern Africa and against Apartheid, and some would argue, with less emphasis on the promotion of democracy and good governance in the independent African countries.

Nonetheless, economic emancipation was one of the fundamental objectives of the Pan-African Movement. The OAU from early on intensified cooperation in various fields and put in place appropriate continental frameworks aimed at advancing regional integration and re-organizing the continent politically, economically and socially. Examples include: (i) the Economic and Social Commission (1964) mandated to handle socio-economic matters leading to the creation of a Continental Free Trade Area and a Common Market; (ii) various Commissions on Education and Culture; Scientific, Technical and Research; and Health, Sanitation and Nutrition; (iii) Memorandum on the Responsibilities and Role of the Organization of African Unity in the Economic and Social Fields (1970) identifying Africa’s priorities in relation to the UN Development Decades which were initiated before the establishment of the OAU; (iv) African Declaration on Co-operation, Development and Economic Independence (or the Economic Charter of Africa) adopted during the Tenth Anniversary of the OAU, and which paved the way for the adoption of the Inter-African Convention Establishing an African Technical Co-operation Program in 1975; and (v) in 1976, the Cultural Charter for Africa intended to emancipate Africans from unfavourable socio-cultural conditions and promote ‘Africanism’ as well as the Kinshasa Declaration that provided for the establishment of the African Economic Community (AEC) by the year 2000 with Regional Economic Communities (RECs) as its pillars.

However, the most significant efforts at visioning Africa’s development over the long-term were the various strategies and frameworks for economic development formulated and agreed by the continent’s leadership from the late 1970s onwards. This was a period when Africa sought to grapple with the severe economic and political crisis that affected many African countries, and the need therefore to evolve strategies to come out of these crises.

During the first decade and half after independence (1960-1975), Africa as a whole performed relatively well economically; Africa’s GDP growth rate averaged 4.5per cent; exports growth rate was 2.8per cent; agriculture grew at 1.6per cent and manufacturing at 6per cent. However, by the end of the 1970s, serious economic crisis beset most African countries. By the beginning of the 1980s, the economic, social and political problems in African countries had reached crisis proportions. African countries had failed to generate and sustain economic growth to meet the growing needs of their expanding populations. Many were faced with severe balance of payments problems, external debt, and African countries largely followed daily crisis management and survival strategies. The situation was exacerbated by the world oil crisis. It was around this period that Africa’s per capita income levels began to diverge from other regions – see figure below.

 

 

African Initiatives for Economic Growth and Transformation – 1979 to the Present •     The Monrovia Declaration (1979) •     The Lagos Plan of Action (1980) •     The Final Act of Lagos (1980) and the Abuja Treaty (1991 •     OAU: Africa’s Priority Program for Economic Recovery (1986-1990) •     The African Alternative Framework to Structural Adjustment Program for Socio- economic Transformation (AAF-SAP) – 1989 •     The African Charter for Popular Participation in Development and Transformation (Arusha, 1990) •     The OAU Declaration on the Political and Socio-economic Situation in Africa and the Fundamental Changes Taking Place in the World (1990) •     The OAU Re-launching of Africa’s Economic and Social Development: The Cairo Agenda for Action (1995) •     NEPAD – New Partnership for Africa’s Development

In addressing the crisis, there were two competing approaches and visions; (i) African-driven and internally conceived visions and plans; (ii) externally driven visions and plans. These two had different approaches to the diagnosis of the problem as well as the prescription. Whereas the African grown initiatives largely put the blame for the continent’s problems on external forces and factors (colonialism, unfair international relations,

etc.), the reports and plans of the external players (largely the Bretton Woods Institutions) blamed “internal domestic policies” of African countries.

In the end, Africa’s own initiatives prior to the 1990s in the wider global context of the Cold War were side lined by external forces, which controlled African economies and the political systems. Nonetheless, African countries also bore some responsibility   for   the   situation due to poor economic policies and deficits in governance systems.

African initiatives for economic growth and transformation9

In response to the crisis of the late 1970s the OAU in collaboration with UNECA in 1979 mobilized to forge a vision and plan to address the crisis. This led to the Monrovia Declaration (1979). The

 

 

 

9 Abdalla Burja (2004) Pan-African political and Economic Visions of Development, From OAU to the AU: From the Lagos Plan of Action (LPA) to the New Partnership for African Development; Capturing the 21st Century: African Peer review (APRM) Best Practices and Lessons Learned UNECA (2011)

 

strategies of the Monrovia Declaration were subsequently incorporated in the Lagos Plan of Action (1980) and the Final Act of Lagos (1980). These three strategic visions articulated Africa’s future development trajectory, provided a practical plan of action to foster the continent’s development, and were underpinned by political decisions for attaining economic cooperation and integration– see Annex 1 for an overview.

These initiatives demonstrate that Africa has made several attempts to define continental visions and actions plans to address the economic, social and political challenges facing the continent, in particular the crisis that set in a decade and half after independence and later. These endogenous frameworks sought to carve out alternative paths for the continent’s future. Issues of poverty reduction, industrialization, agriculture, science and technology, structural transformation, integration and cooperation remained at the core of all these initiatives.

Unfortunately many remained only partly implemented. A variety of reasons have been advanced such as: lack of capacity; lack of political will; lack of resources; and external interference. One important factor was that the development of the plans was mostly technocratic in approach, were not sufficiently participatory and therefore failed to galvanize ordinary Africans.

Externally driven initiatives

 

Key among the externally-driven initiatives, backed essentially by the Bretton woods Institutions in the decades of the 1980s and early 1990s, was the World Bank Berg Report (1981) named “Accelerated Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Agenda for Action”, which was the foundation for the Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) that followed. The SAPs gained pre- eminence in African countries with adverse consequences on the socio-economic development of the continent. In many instances, the debt-ridden African countries were powerless to do otherwise.

Under the SAPs, African countries were compelled to devalue their currencies, raise interest rates, withdraw state subsidies, curtail service provision, reduce government role in economic activities and retrench and reduce the public sector leading to the creation of a “minimalist state”. By reducing the sphere of state activities in the field of economics and opening up Africa’s nascent economies to competition from more mature economies, SAPs contributed to slow growth, de-industrialization and increased dependence on raw materials exports. It is reported that real GDP growth rate averaged 1.32per cent during 1980-1989, and by 1990, per capita incomes in Africa were about half the level in Asia and a quarter of Latin America. Although the SAPs were not to be entirely blamed for the state of affairs, they bore a significant part of the responsibility.

 

Thus during the 1980s and 1990s, African countries at continental level continued to endorse bold and far-sighted visions and plans for socio-economic transformation, while at national level, competing external agendas held the day; at national level many African countries followed a course of action which was different from the strategies adopted at continental level. These experiences provide lessons that are of crucial importance for Agenda 2063, and highlight the importance of ensuring that Agenda 2063 is fully integrated into national and regional plans, and the need for strong political leadership to ensure that continental commitments are followed through at national and regional levels.

3.1.3   Conclusions

 

From the foregoing brief analysis of Africa’s political and socio-economic development since the founding of the OAU in 1963, the following conclusions emerge:

 

(a)            The durability of the quest for political unity, integration, dignity and economic emancipation

As shown above, political unity and economic emancipation have been a consistent quest for Africa from the early post-colonial times to the present. Against tremendous odds, the continent has continued to forge ahead, re-inventing and adapting to new challenges and forging new strategies appropriate to the times. Agenda 2063 should be seen in the context of the durability of this quest for political unity and economic emancipation of the continent.

(b)           The illusiveness of attaining economic and political emancipation

Since 1963, Africa’s continental and regional organizations have endeavoured to realize the objectives of Pan Africanism among which was the quest for dignity and political and economic emancipation. However, in spite of commendable progress, the task has not been easy, and the political and economic agenda remains an unfinished business. As a result, the fight against colonialism and its legacies is yet to be fully accomplished as some African territories are still under direct colonial occupation; and peace and security needs to be consolidated and stability maintained through full implementation of the African Peace and Security Architecture. While economic growth has been strong in recent decades, too many African are still mired in poverty and the growth has been mostly a jobless one.

Elements of the Paradigm Shift •     The promotion of effective citizens participation in public policy processes, government accountability, openness and transparency at all levels of governance – national, regional and continental are increasingly recognized as prerequisites for the continent’s overall transformation. •     Africa should speak with one voice and cede sovereignty in order to make progress and strengthen collective unity. A key feature of Agenda 2063 is that it seeks to alter Africa’s standing in the global political economy, away from its historical status as a ‘passive object’ to an active and dynamic actor. This means empowering the African Union and enabling it to authoritatively speak for the continent. This should be coupled with vigorous follow- up on the reform of key global institutions of governance such as the UN, IMF, and WB, strategic involvement in platforms of bloc politics such as the G8, G20 and BRICs, as well as negotiations on global agendas such as the Doha Round of Trade negotiations; climate change negotiations and the Post 2015 Development Agenda. •     Accountability for delivery of results so that the continent’s citizens can realize concrete benefits from continental and regional initiatives. The old way of doing business, namely elaboration of initiatives at continental level that are unimplemented at regional and national level must end. Agenda 2063 must be results-driven with accountability for delivering on programs rather a focus on purely normative processes.

Meanwhile, despite recent gains, democracy, human rights and good governance remain a challenge. On another level, harmonization of policies on international relations and cooperation need to be strengthened

so that Member States speak with one voice in order to ensure better gains in the international arena. The pace of regional

integration needs to be accelerated to allow Africans to take their destiny in their own hands.

(c)       Re-kindling the spirit of African solidarity in the face of new challenges

A spirit of solidarity, determination and sacrifice was a strong feature in the efforts of Africans and their political leadership in their quest to rid the continent of colonialism, apartheid, including the many scarifies made by the “Frontline States”. This spirit needs to be re-kindled, especially among Africa’s young people, to enable the continent to face the challenges of our times.

(d)           Strong political commitment to implement agreed actions

As shown by the preceding analysis, Africa has not been bereft of bold initiatives to address its political and economic agenda. What has been lacking is the commitment to implement agreed actions; in effect the continental agreements, programs and

 

frameworks are only slowly translated into national level actions. To succeed, Agenda 2063 should be embedded in national and regional plans and frameworks.

(e)           The imperative of a paradigm shift

The continent stands at a crucial point. After decades of poor growth, hopes for a better future have been rekindled in all corners of the continent. Over the last few decades there has been a remarkable convergence of Africa’s political and economic systems; all countries have adopted pluralistic democracy and market economies as models. Ideological tensions that divided Africa in the past and acted as bottleneck to political unity and economic integration have dissipated.

However, Africa must do business differently and adopt a paradigm shift if current hopes for a better future for the continent are to be realized. Key elements of this paradigm shift include citizens’ participation, speaking with one voice in international affairs and accountability for results. These represent a few elements that should underpin Agenda 2063. Chapter 5 presents a more detailed treatment of some of the critical drivers and enablers for the successful implementation of Agenda 2063.

The paradigm shift is critical if the problems and challenges Africa faces today (treated in detail in the section below) are to be resolved and the continent launched on a positive trajectory.

3.2         AFRICA TODAY: Progress, Challenges And Implications For Agenda 2063

Africa’s achievements over the last decade and a half are significant. Across the region, economic growth has firmly taken root (and there is more to that growth than just export of raw materials), with increased exports and foreign direct investment. If current growth trajectory is maintained, incomes are projected to double in 22 years. Furthermore, political stability, peace and security and reforms in governance have changed the political landscape. Women and youth are progressively having a greater voice in decision-making. With aid declining, Africa is also increasingly financing it own development thanks to export earnings, trade and remittances among others.

However, these positive developments are juxtaposed with significant challenges and the positive overview also masks significant variations across regions and between countries.

Below is an assessment of Africa today, the progress and challenges in context of the quest to attain the AU vision of “an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the international arena” and the seven African Aspirations outlined in chapter 2.

3.2.1   A Prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development

The Africa of 2063 envisioned under this aspiration is a prosperous continent where the citizens have a high standard of living, are well educated with a skilled labour force, transformed economies, productive agriculture and healthy ecosystems, with well-preserved environment and a continent resilient to climate change.

An assessment of where Africa stands today with respect to four parameters that are critical for attaining the African aspiration for prosperity based on inclusive growth and sustainable development is presented below:

• Social and human development: poverty, inequality, jobs and incomes, health, education, social security and protection, demographics and urbanization;

 

• Economic transformation and job creation: economic growth, private sector development, industrialization, manufacturing, trade and investment;
• Agriculture and the blue/ocean economy: agricultural productivity and production; and

 

• Environment and natural resources management: biodiversity, forests, wildlife, land, desertification and climate

Social and human development in Africa

In recent years, Africa has made much progress in the area of social and human development. Poverty levels are falling, incomes are rising and there are improvements in both health and education outcomes10. The Human Development Index (HDI) is reported to improve at a 1.5per cent annual growth and 15 African countries are now classified as medium to high human development11. However, 34 out of the 43 (i.e. 79per cent) of the countries in the low human development category are from Africa, and none were in the very high category. Globally, this demonstrates that despite commendable progress the continent still lags behind other regions.

Improvements in both income and non-income components have been reported to have a positive impact on human development in Africa12. Some countries have improved both incomes and non-income components (i.e. access to health and education) while in others (e.g. resource rich countries), incomes are rising faster than access to health and education. In these countries, growth is not broad-based enough and is not being translated into human development fast enough. In a few other countries social outcomes (health and education) are improving at a faster pace than improvements in incomes. Such investments in social capital can be expected to pay- off in terms of accelerated development once the fetters to economic growth are removed.

Poverty, inequality, incomes and hunger

According to key indicators, poverty in Africa is falling for the first time in a generation. The proportion of people living in extreme poverty (i.e. less than USD 1.25/day) fell from 56.5per cent in 1990 to 48.5per cent in 201013. Furthermore, a number of countries have reached or are close to reaching the MDG target of halving poverty by 2015. However, the poverty situation has worsened in several other countries. Overall, the gains remain fragile and reversible due to rising inequalities and exposure to shocks (economic, political, social and environmental).

Despite the progress, Africa remains the continent with the highest concentration of poverty. The number of Africans living below the poverty line has in fact increased from 290 million in 1990 to 376 million in 1999 to 414 million in 201014. The continent’s share of global poverty rose from 15 per cent in 1990 to 34 per cent in 2010. The continent has also made little progress in addressing the depth of poverty; the average per capita income of the extreme poor in Africa has remained almost constant between 1990 and 2010.

The consensus is that rapid economic growth of recent years has failed to translate into corresponding and significant poverty reduction or improved living conditions for many Africans. A key factor is the structure of growth. For example, the significant progress made in reducing poverty in Ethiopia and Rwanda is linked to rapid growth of the agriculture sector, and this is in contrast to those countries where growth is more linked to the extractive sectors, such as in Angola, Nigeria and Zambia.

 

 

 

10 African Economic Outlook 2014

11   Ibid

12   Ibid

13 Africa MDG Report, 2014

14  Ibid

 

Exclusion and unequal access to economic and social opportunities inhibit human rights and thwart both improvements to livelihoods and development of skills that economic expansion can offer. For instance, unequal access to education and barriers to the labour market exclude young people living in rural or urban low-income areas, women and the disabled from lucrative jobs in productive sectors that require skilled labour. This locks young people, for example, in a cycle of low-skilled jobs in low productive sectors with low remuneration, fuelling poverty. Only 51% of 15-24 year olds participate in wage-earning jobs. The lack of growing skilled- labour force in turn reduces national competitiveness and opportunities to attract investment that can promote economic diversification and technological advancement.

Exclusion and gender inequality are major sources of poverty15. Africa is reportedly the second most unequal region in the world after Latin America; the Gini Index for 2000 to 2009 was 43.9 compared to 52.2 for Latin America and the Caribbean16. However, Africa has made more rapid progress than other regions and showed the largest decline in inequality between 1990s and 2000s.

Women’s unequal access to land, ownership and control is a major factor behind inequality in many African countries; addressing inequality in Africa requires dealing with women’s access to ownership and control of land17. Agenda 2063 will only succeed if it changes the face of women poverty in Africa.

Some Policy Measures on Poverty and Hunger in Africa •     Economic diversification and structural transformation are key, and accelerated, inclusive and diversified growth and effective distribution policies will contribute to achieving the ambitious poverty reduction target; •     African governments will need to privilege structural transformation and people- centered development; •     Macro-economic stability and the pattern of economic growth are important factors in accelerating poverty reduction. Policies related to fiscal, monetary and exchange rates need to be aligned to sector poverty reduction objectives; •     Countries that have been able to address inequality have also succeeded in accelerating growth and reducing poverty – high inequality reduces the impact of high growth on poverty reduction; •     There is a need to invest in social protection programs – social protection in Africa currently covers only 20 percent of the poorest quintile compared to 50 percent in Central Asia and 55 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean. •     Strategies must be put in place to address the following features that characterize poverty in Africa: (i) predominance of rural poverty; and (ii) feminization of poverty. •     Unemployment is a huge challenge, with Africa in 2013 contributing the major share of global unemployment. Creation of decent jobs is therefore a policy priority.

Projections from the Africa Progress Panel (2014) shows that eradicating poverty within a generation is ambitious but not impossible as prospects are determined more by policies adopted by governments than by past trends.

Another dimension is the poverty – hunger nexus in Africa. Between 1990 and 2013, Africa reduced hunger by 23 per cent18. However, performance varies with countries; four countries have reached the MDG target in 2013 (Ghana, Angola, Malawi and Rwanda) while six are close, and some 29 countries have made modest to moderate progress. The reduction in prevalence of underweight children remains a daunting task. Overall, Africa is still far from reaching the MDG target on hunger. The main challenges in addressing hunger include: poor performance of agricultural sector; climate change and drought; conflicts; and more recently the outbreak of diseases (e.g. Ebola).

Strategies for poverty reduction should therefore include broad-based economic growth, job creation and substantial investments in building social capital in terms of access to education and health, as well as reduction in exclusion and inequalities of opportunities. As stated in the Common African Position on Post 2015, African countries need to give priority to structural transformation and people-centred development in order to address poverty.

 

 

15 Inequality is expressed in terms of access to income, economic opportunities, productive assets (land), and use of public services (education and health)

16   Africa MDG Report 2014

17   Africa MDG Report 2014

18  Ibid

 

Social protection and social security

 

Social security and protection can play a vital role in ensuring that growth leads to reduced poverty and inequality, as experience from Europe, Latin America and Asia has shown. Furthermore, addressing inequality through social protection makes growth more inclusive by contributing to domestic demand-led growth. It is also important to underline that social security is both a human right, and an economic and social necessity.

In Africa, employment – based contributory social security system hardly covers 10per cent of workers, as a result of the dominance of the informal economy and rural sector, and the increase in informal employment. This results in a significant social security coverage gap in the labour market. On the other hand, African countries have put in place many non-contributory social protection strategies/programs, including cash transfers, public works programs and a range of safety nets for the poor and vulnerable. These include 123 cash transfer programs in 34 countries and over 500 public works programs. The number of African countries with social protection programs increased from 21 in 2010 to 37 in 2013, nearly doubling in number in a space of just three years19. In addition almost all African countries have safety nets programs

• out of 48 countries sampled 45 had conditional in-kind transfers, 13 had conditional cash transfers, 39 had unconditional in-kind transfers, 37 had unconditional cash transfers and 39 had public works programs20.

Measures to enhance Social Protection •     Mitigating risks-African informal economy workers and farmers face through innovative insurance schemes; •     Protecting and building productive assets in case of emergencies triggered by floods, droughts, crop failures; •     Protecting and building human capital through cash transfers and other support measures. •     By injecting resources into local economies well designed social protection programs can yield dividends and spillovers in terms of local economic growth and job creation and strengthen social cohesion.

These efforts have yielded some results in terms of reducing poverty and inequality. Some are fairly extensive such as the Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), which reaches 8 million beneficiaries in 1.5 million households. Other country experiences include Mauritius, South Africa, Namibia, Rwanda (with universal healthcare covering 90 per cent of the population), Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, Kenya, Mozambique and Tanzania. Several countries also provide emergency food (Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, etc.).

At the continental level, the African Union has adopted the Social Policy Framework (SPF),

which aims to encourage Member States to extend coverage and provide a minimum package of services to the poor and vulnerable. Social protection plans target the Informal economy and rural workers since the huge majority of the labour force is engaged in the informal economy and rural sector with low social security coverage.

However, current measures are far from being adequate due to21: (i) underfunding: only up to 2 per cent of GDP is spent on social protection compared to 4 per cent as the global average, and in most AU Member States it is less than 2 per cent; (ii) limited coverage – only 20 per cent of African citizens benefit from social protection, this includes old age pensions and grants to persons with

 

 

 

 

19 Reported in Africa MDG Report, 2014

20  Ibid

21 At international level, key partners have developed social protection policies for developing countries: EU Agenda for Change (2012), World Bank Social Protection Strategy for Africa (2012-2022) and the ILO Social Protection Floors which inspire the policy commitment and work of other international structures such as the G20 and the OECD.

 

disabilities; (iii) the fragmented, donor-driven and disjointed nature of many projects leading to limited systematic approaches; and (iv) the limited effectiveness and efficiency of the existing social security systems.

To strengthen social security and social protection African countries should adopt a two-pronged strategy:

• Firstly, as a protection against poverty, African countries should build social protection floor and minimum package to improve access to essential health care and basic income security for children and families, women and men of working age, in particular in the informal economy and rural sector, and for older persons. On average, by allocating 5per cent of GDP, Member States will ensure the above minimum social protection package. Fiscal space exists in many countries for such
• Secondly, progressively ensuring social security benefits of guaranteed levels for all by extending contributory social security systems targeting household economic units in the informal economy and rural sector.

Education and skills development

 

Africa needs to significantly improve its human capital in order to achieve the economic transformation envisaged under Agenda 2063. This transformation calls for a transition from low to high productivity sectors, which is critical for enhancing productivity and competitiveness of African economies in a global knowledge-based economy. This in turn will translate into improved incomes, reduced poverty and overall better well-being for African citizens.

Most of Africa’s recent growth performance can be attributed to harvesting the “low hanging fruits” related to macroeconomic policy reforms, political stability, improvements in business climate and export of primary commodities22. While these are important to jump-start economic growth, they are not by themselves sufficient to sustain and expand growth in the long run23. The continent needs to raise the quality and quantity of its human capital significantly, build critical capacities, and expand skills in order for her to harness new job and technological opportunities in a global knowledge-based economy. Improved human capital will also help prepare countries to better capitalize on opportunities and mitigate risks in a fast-changing world.

The critical role of education in economic growth and transformation has been demonstrated by recent research24. A significant positive correlation exists between the two, with rates of return ranging from 5 per cent to 12 per cent for each additional schooling year, and higher rates for tertiary as compared to secondary education. The economic growth trajectory of the so-called Asian tigers closely mirrors their human capital formation. In the quest to build their human capital, African countries should take a critical look at their educational systems at all levels, with a view to adapting them to today’s (and the future) global knowledge-driven economy, as well as to the values of the African Renaissance and Africa’s emergence on the world stage.

This section analyses the progress made, and the challenges with respect to: basic (primary and secondary) education and tertiary education, including science and technology.

 

 

 

 

 

 

22 Africa 2050 Realizing the Continent’s Potential

23 Africa 2050

24 Barro and Lee. A New Data Set for Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010

 

Challenges in Education •     Although free primary education has been a positive factor, the cost of learning materials has in many instances made schooling unaffordable for poor families. Post-conflict countries such as Liberia, face serious challenges in improving primary education due to shortage of resources and immense demands. •     Completion rates at the primary level are low in general; 28 percent of the countries with data have below 60 percent completion rates. Moreover, progress in completion is also slow. A key problem is that in expanding access, a number of countries recruited many unqualified teachers, making teacher and professional development of key concern; •     Despite the progress made in education access it is estimated that one out of every three children drop out without having met the basic competencies in reading and mathematics. Low quality primary education has significant impact on prospects for jobs for young people and this in turn perpetuates inter-generational poverty. Thus special programs are needed to address the problems of school dropouts. •     Educational disparity between boys and girls have been drastically reduced at the primary level, however, the gap still exists, especially in rural and urban-poor areas – only 23% of poor girls in rural areas are completing primary education.

Basic (primary and secondary) education

 

Coming from a relatively low base, African countries have made spectacular progress, when compared to the rest of the world in primary school enrolment. The continent increased net enrolment by 24per cent over the period 1990-201125. In addition, gender parity has also improved markedly. The number of out of school children fell from 40 million in 1999 to 22 million currently. The policy of providing free, compulsory and universal primary education in many countries has been a major driving factor.

However, low completion rates and issues of educational quality and relevance remain as key concerns. When compared to other regions, Africa’s progress still leaves much to be desired. Pre-primary school coverage is 17per cent per cent compared to48 per cent for South Asia, 57 per cent for East Asia and 70 per cent for Latin America.

Lessons for Accelerating Achievement of MDG Targets on Education •     Speeding up private sector involvement in education; •     Enhancing science, technology and innovation (STI) to extend access and improve educational quality; •     Addressing the root causes of low completion rates and putting in place remedial measures •     Upgrading education management and planning capacities.

Furthermore, the slow demographic transition in Africa means that the continent will have to greatly expand basic education in the next few decades to keep pace with population growth while other regions would be shifting resources to expand post-basic education and improve education quality at all levels26.

High primary enrolment has boosted literacy rates in many African countries, although average literacy rates stand at50 per cent continent-wide. In general, countries with high completion rates at primary level tend to have high youth literacy rates. Due to low completion rates, poor quality and the mismatch between educational systems and requirements of the job market, as well as the imperative of creating jobs for Africa’s growing

youth population, many African countries have embarked on Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) initiatives.

Tertiary education

 

Investing in higher education27   will ensure that African countries produce the critical stock of human capital (engineers, doctors, accountants, lawyers, etc.) required to build modern competitive societies and economies. Tertiary education supports economic development directly by generating new knowledge, building capacity to access the global storehouse of knowledge, and adapting knowledge for local use.

 

25 Africa MDG Report 2014

26 Africa 2050

27 Universities, Colleges and Polytechnics

 

Challenges in Tertiary Education •     Underfunding: over the past decades, enrollment surged but funding declined resulting in fall in quality and relevance. Between 1991 and 2005, enrollment tripled (8.7% growth), while at the same time public financing declined such that annual funding per student went from USD 6,800 in 1981 to USD 980 in 2005. •     With decline in funding, across disciplines, only 70% of required faculty positions were filled, with some as low as 30-40 percent; •     Leadership and management were weak, and in the face of declining funding quality and research are falling and institutional quality assurance mechanisms are either not in place or are weak; •     The relevance of the curriculum in many tertiary education institutions is questionable given that most students continue to be enrolled in “soft” disciplines – in 2004 only 28 percent were in science and technology. This situation is compounded by the fact that in Africa, only 0.3 percent of the budget is allocated to Research & Development. •     There is a mismatch between the education provided and the capabilities required in the job market leading to waste of scare educational resources and unemployment.

In the immediate post-independence period, higher education in most African countries was seen as a “public good” and tertiary institutions received direct budget support from African governments. However, the crisis of the late 1970s and 1980s (i.e. the era of structural adjustment) led to reductions in funds allocated to the sector. This together with the surge in enrolments led to severe underfunding of Africa’s institutions of higher learning. Coupled with the generalized conflicts and poor economic conditions that prevailed in many African countries, the continent’s institutions of higher learning, some of which were comparable to the best in the world (e.g. Makerere University in Uganda, University of Ibadan in Nigeria) rapidly declined.

Current demand for higher education has expanded rapidly. For example, student population trebled from 2.7 million in 1991 to

9.3 million in 2006 and it is projected to rise to 18-20 million by 201528. It is estimated that Africa currently has over 800 universities and 1,500 institutions of higher learning29. Private universities   have   expanded   rapidly;   from   7

private universities in 1960 to 27 by 1990, and it is estimated that in 2006 up to 22 per cent of higher education was serviced by the private sector30. The importance of private providers of education at the tertiary level is shown by the following statistics: Uganda (7 public and 27 private); Somalia (40 universities, all private); South Africa (21 public and 87 private); Ghana (6 public and 42 private); and (Nigeria (36 Federal, 37 State and 45 private)31. This growth in private institutions at the tertiary level has helped meet the surging demand for higher education but it has also introduced issues of quality and standards.

Throughout the continent, there has been significant investment taking place in tertiary education, with the UNESCO Science Report of 2010 stating that investment in Higher Education in Africa averaged 4.5 per cent of GDP, which is close to the global median for developing countries. Similarly, there has been a surge in scholarly research, with 11,142 peer review articles in 2008.

Despite the growth in tertiary enrolments and the rapid increase in both public and private institutions at the tertiary level, Africa’s stock of human capital is comparatively small and its quality variable. African countries risk being marginalized in a highly competitive global economy because of weaknesses in tertiary education. Long-term investment is needed to both revitalize higher education and to support the development of centres of excellence in science, engineering and technology, as well as reverse the brain drain.

The African Union’s 2nd Decade of Education, spells out specific strategies for revitalizing the tertiary education sector.

 

28 Olugbemiro Jegede (2012) The Status of Higher Education in Africa

29   Ibid

30   Ibid

31   Ibid

 

At continental level, progress is being made as exemplified by the following: (i) the revised Arusha Convention whose aim is to promote pan-African cooperation for mutual recognition of academic qualifications (i.e. the legal instrument for the AU Harmonization Strategy) and which to date has been signed by 20 countries; (ii) the establishment of Pan African University (PAU) designed to contribute to higher education and meeting Africa’s development needs through innovation in training and research with a focus on science technology and innovation; (iii) the AUC’s Mwalimu Nyerere African Union Scholarship Scheme launched in 2007 to enable young African to study in leading universities; and (iv) an African Quality Rating Mechanism (AQRM) that has been set up to support development of institutional cultures of quality and commitment to quality.

Action areas for Agenda 2063 •     Investing in Early Childhood Education; •     Building critical skills through expanded access to primary education for all, addressing the issue of school-drop outs and improving quality issues; •     Improving the quality and relevance of technical and vocational skills development to address the needs of both cutting edge skills and training the majority who are involved in the informal economy; and •     Revitalizingtertiaryeducationthroughexpanding access, improving quality and relevance; •     Building human capital for knowledge and innovation-driven economies; and •     Harnessing regional and continental resources to significantly scale up human capital formation.

These and other measures taken at national and regional levels reflect the awareness of African policy makers of the importance of tertiary education to the continent’s development. However, the pace is slow and reform efforts need to be re-doubled to ensure that the required skills and competencies for a globally competitive economy are rapidly available in all African countries.

For Africa to build its human capital base it needs to expand enrolments at pre-school level, scale up completion rates at the basic, secondary and tertiary levels and expand literacy. There is an urgent need of ensuring access to quality education, including universal access through at

least secondary education for all children, with particular attention to girls’ retention and completion rates, as well as the need for more girls and women to enrol in STEM subjects for Africa to achieve rapid industrialization and economic transformation.

African countries would require aggressive and committed leadership and long-term investment if the continent is to close the human and skills gap needed to transform lives and build competitive economies. Tertiary education is the backbone of research and development, an area where Africa lags significantly. Although South Africa and Nigeria are able to act as global players in technology development, including in aero-spatial research, many African countries have poorly developed R&D capacities, which is also male dominated. Research and development as a percentage of GDP ranges from 0.3 per cent to 1 per cent in most African countries, as compared to European countries (Finland 3.5 per cent, Sweden 3.9 per cent), USA (2.7 per cent), as well as Japan, Singapore and Korea (2-3 per cent)32. However, in 2003, African Ministers of Science and Technology committed to raise R&D to at least 1 per cent in five years, demonstrating that African policy makers are fully cognizant of the challenge.

 

32 Simon. E (2008) Current state of International Science Statistics for Africa

 

Features and Challenges in Health •    The continent has 12 percent of the world’s population but 25 percent of its disease burden, 70 percent of those living with HIV and AIDs live in Africa and 50 percent of under 5 deaths are in Africa. Africa’s high disease burden is putting a major break on economic growth. A stark case in point is the current Ebola out-break in West Africa, which is predicted to curb growth by between 2.5 to 4 percent in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone. •    Health system strengthening is a major concern with most health care systems being seriously under- funded. Although 53 countries have signed the Abuja Declaration committing them to allocate 15 percent of their budgets to the health sector, most have not met this goal and some of those who have met it, have done so using donor funds, an unsustainable situation. •    Although infectious diseases as a cause of mortality and morbidity have declined in the rest of the world, these remain as the most frequent causes of deaths in Africa due to poor environmental management, weak water and sanitation systems and low knowledge of basic health household practices. •    With rising urbanization and lifestyle changes, it is predicted that there will be major increases in deaths related to cardio-vascular and respiratory illnesses, as well as from diabetes. •    Malaria continues to cause many avoidable deaths and hinders development in parts where it is endemic; global distribution of per-capita gross domestic product shows a striking correlation between malaria and poverty1. It is therefore imperative that Africa counters this major challenge to development whose comprehensive control amounts to approximately US$3.0 billion per year on average, or around US$4.02 per African at risk2.

Health

Despite the current outbreak of Ebola in West Africa, notable gains have been realized in the health sector of many African countries in recent decades. The current status of health on the continent however, also shows that many challenges remain. Progress with respect to some of the MDG-related health targets are briefly highlighted below33:

• Child Mortality: steep declines in under

5 mortality rates have been realized; continent-wide U5MR has fallen from 145 deaths per 1000 live births in 1990 to 80 per 1000 live births in 2012, which translates into a 44 per cent decline. Annual progress has also improved markedly; increasing from 1.4 per cent in the 1990 to 2000 period to 3.8 per cent in the 2000 to 2012 period. However, the gains are insufficient for the continent to meet the MDG target by 2015.

•  

Continental initiatives on Health •    Maternal Health:“Nowomanshalldieinpregnancy. There shall be full access to integrated sexual and reproductive health care and institutional delivery for all women of reproductive age” •    Child Health: “Africa shall advance towards nil death in under-five children in our continent” •    Maternal, Newborn and Child Health: To ensure the continuum of care, especially around MNCH, efforts will be scaled up to promote the integration of services, particularly at the primary health care level. •    HIV/AIDS: “Towards zero incidence, zero deaths from HIV&AIDS” •    Tuberculosis: “An Africa continent free of TB (Zero deaths, disease or suffering due to TB)”. •    Malaria: “Together with the world, we shall achieve an Africa free of malaria” •    Non-communicable diseases: •    Neglected tropical diseases: •    Infectious diseases (Public Health Emergencies): African governments should commit to the creation of a continent capable of preventing, detecting, containing, eliminating and responding to epidemic diseases and other public health risks attributable to human and animal diseases through multi-sector cooperation and strong partnerships. •    Health care financing: “Quality health care everywhere in Africa, every time”

• Maternal mortality: significant progress has been registered with maternal mortality ratio dropping from 870 per 100,000 live births in 1990 to 470 in 2013, reflecting a 47 per cent It is also reported that the number of women dying from pregnancy and birth complications declined by almost half in 2010 as compared to 1990. However, the continent is off-track for achieving this target. Reasons for this situation are poor access to community health services, especially in the rural areas, high adolescent birth rates and limited number of skilled birth attendants.
• HIV and AIDS: the trends with respect to HIV and AIDS among adults have been reversed due to strong political will and, increased access to antiretroviral drugs among other HIV prevalence rates have declined from 5.89 per cent to 4.7 per cent between 1995 and 2012, and between 2010 and 2011 access to antiretroviral drugs increased from 48 per cent to 56 per cent. However, some 25 million people are still living with HIV and AIDS in Southern, East, Central and West Africa.

 

33 Africa MDG Report 2014

 

• Malaria: the incidence, prevalence and deaths from malaria have declined over the past decade as a result of expanded treatment, care and preventive measures. However, the malaria burden remains high, especially for children under 5 years who continue to suffer For example, in 2012, it is estimated that 90 per cent of the 627,000 malaria cases world-wide occurred in Southern, East, Central and West Africa with 77 per cent of those cases affecting children under 5 years.

At continental level, various initiatives are underway to address the continent’s health related challenges- see box.

Looking to the future, the following actions need to be taken into account:

 

1. Committing to the achievement of financially sustainable health care systems, which ensure equitable access, aligned with local health priorities while being domestically directed and financed, including through:

• Engendering country ownership of the funding and management of health care, including increase in domestic funding;
• Engaging the relevant stakeholders in the funding of health care delivery;

 

• Mobilizing resources especially local and international, for the financing of health; and

 

• Aligning donor policy and funding with national government and local

 

The continent must optimally explore some opportunities that could effectively change the current scenario of health financing. This includes creating pooled funding at the national level to finance health, which may involve corporate social responsibility contributions as well as taxation.

The dwindling and unpredictability of development assistance compels Africa to look inwards for domestic resources for the care of her people. Africa will need to mobilize internal resources for the promotion of her health, encourage public –private partnership in the financing of health and the provision of services while promoting equity through universal health coverage. Cultural and context specific (community) health insurance schemes would need to be developed to guarantee access to services especially for the disadvantaged and the most vulnerable. The health system, defined to its fullest extent would need to be strengthened with sustained investment to ameliorate the social determinants of health.

Value for money will remain a critical component of health policy and processes will continuously need to be improved to ensure efficiency and curbing of wastages.

Health Policy Measures •     Aggressively address and reduce the high levels of communicable and non-communicable diseases on the continent •     Take preemptive measures to curtail the growth of chronic lifestyle diseases; •     Strengthen health systems, build technical capacity and institute health reforms that should include decentralization of health systems in an effort to promote universal access •     Put in place sustainable funding strategies to ensure universal basic health provision for all •     Make health services accessible to all through sustainable social policies such as development of robust health insurance systems, to replace subsidies that currently exist in most African countries

Accountability mechanisms should be put in place at all levels to ensure that duty bearers remain accountable to the right

holders with regards to responsibilities they have been assigned and resources over which they have custodial authority.

1. The African health agenda for 2063, due to the continent’s demographic profile, calls for a focus on both the health needs of the young and the chronic degenerative diseases of the Africa’s population has shifted from a 6per cent proportion of the aged to the total population to 13 per cent. The situation in northern part of Africa is

 

even more acute with the aged population reaching as high as 25per cent of the total in some countries. The African health agenda of the millennium will need to cater for the younger population while focusing heath services on effectively tackle the tertiary needs of the aged population, as well.

1. The increasing changes of lifestyles, particularly the abandonment of the traditional high fibre diets for high sugar and refined diets, coupled with the increasing adoption of other habits such as smoking and urban stress in rapidly urbanizing centres portends a conglomeration of risk factors for non-communicable diseases. The current emphasis on primary health care is consequently inadequate to respond to the projected health Thus African countries should develop policies to incorporate non-communicable diseases in primary health care while strengthening the technological base of secondary and tertiary health care services. Such investments are not only capital intensive but would require a new set of skills on the part of policy makers, program managers and health care workers.

Improving the health of Africa’s citizens also calls for broad-based strategies and a multifaceted approach that addresses access to water and sanitation, women’s empowerment, nutrition, access to basic services and improved education, rather than narrow vertical approaches that characterizes efforts so far.

The Abuja Declaration related to Health and the African Leaders’ Malaria Alliance, point to strong political commitment to improving Africa’s health status and this momentum should be sustained, including the mobilization of the continent, under the auspices of the AU to address Ebola outbreak in West Africa. The commitments to integrate sexual and reproductive health and rights, family planning and HIV/AIDS services through reinforcing action on earlier commitments to enhance maternal, newborn and child health status, ensuring the integration necessary to facilitate synergies between HIV/AIDS, TB, Malaria and Maternal, Newborn and Child Health programmes must be vigorously followed through.

Demographic Trends

Since 1950, Africa’s population size and growth has experienced an upward trend, growing from about 229 million to 1.2 billion in 2014, representing 9.1 and 15.1 per cent of the total world population respectively. This proportion is projected to increase to 19.7 and 35.3 per cent respectively by 2034 and 2100 (see Figure 1). Over this period, the African population will increase far more rapidly than the rest of the world population.

Figure 1- Evolution of the World population and relative share (per cent) of the African population, 1950-2100

 

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, DVD Edition.

 

Some Priority Actions for Urbanization and Human Settlements •     Improving shelter/housing delivery and slum eradication is a major priority in view of the rapidly expanding urban population and the backlog in delivery of shelter and services. This will require improvements in legal, institutional, regulatory systems and capacities. •     Ensuring financing for urban development: to cope with existing and anticipated needs to expand infrastructure, facilities, housing, innovative financing approaches will be required. Already there are emerging good practices: land value sharing; municipal development funds; urban bonds markets; improved revenue-generating efficiency; etc. •     Facilitating spatial planning and service delivery: rapidly growing urban populations need access to basic services in the areas of: water, sanitation, electricity, transport, waste management. Innovative strategies, which stress sustainability, low carbon green growth, are needed. •     Strengthening the productive base of urban economies: urban centers make substantial contributions to the GDP in African countries and can contribute to reducing poverty and generating employment. Thus Africa’s cities and towns can be a major driving force for the continent’s transformation. Appropriate policies and institutions need to be developed to ensure that the potential is realized. •     Improving management systems, governance and legislative frameworks: many countries have taken significant steps over the last decades, but these measures have not been effective to cope with rapid urbanization. •     Ensuring urban safety, disaster risk reduction: the imperative of creating safe urban neighborhoods, drugs and crime-free urban areas, as well as risks associated with climate change.

The pattern of population distribution varies between countries and regions, and over the years the geographical distribution of the population will change. East Africa is the most populous region today; by 2100, West Africa will occupy that rank. Central Africa is and will remain the least populous region on the continent.

Africa’s population is young with a median age of about 20 years in 2014, compared to a world average of 30 years. By 2050 the median age for Africa will increase to 25 years, while the average for the world as whole will climb to 38 years. The proportion of children aged 0 to 14 to the total population is projected to fall from 42.2 per cent in 2000 to 30.6 per cent by 2050, while the percentage of the working age population 15 to 64 is expected to increase from 54.5 per cent to

62.8 per cent between the two periods and, is projected to be at 63.7 per cent in 2100.

The continent is experiencing rapid urbanization (see next section). Migration is intense in Africa and takes various forms. There is first a rural-urban migration, contributing to rapid urbanization; there is also movements of populations across countries where there are limited visa issues; there are young Africans taking their chances outside the continent; and finally there are a good number of forced displacements, due to factors such as civil wars, droughts, water shortages and natural disasters. The rural-urban migration presents development challenges in the form of land access, infrastructure and provision of basic services, as well as employment.

The demographic changes underway in Africa

including rapid urbanization, rapid increases in the workforce, the changing age structure are complex and have profound implications for the continent’s human development and structural transformation. The key question is how Africa can leverage and harness these dynamics and ensure that they do not hinder but rather boost its economic growth and structural transformation.

Turning rapid urbanization into an opportunity requires new policy approaches to development and management of Africa’s cities. Harnessing the demographic dividend of a youth bulge resulting from the changing age structure and deriving economic, social and environmental gains may happen through the following process. As youthful populations become older and have fewer children than previous generations, a bulge in the working age population will likely result in many countries. When there are more working-age adults relative to children and the elderly, then the working-age population has a lower dependency burden, with fewer people to support with the same income and assets. That creates a window of opportunity to save on health care and other social services, improve the quality of education, increase economic output because of more

 

people working, invest more in technology and skills to strengthen the economy, and create the wealth needed to cope with the future aging of the population.

All these efforts need to be translated into action in a way that expands youth opportunities, giving them the skills to participate fully in the economy and public life, and promote healthy behaviours. The mega demographic shifts in Africa and the profound transitions in life styles from traditional to modern will support economic transformation if supported by appropriate population and development policies.

Urbanization and human settlements

 

As indicated in the previous section, the Africa of 2063 will be a predominantly urban future. It is estimated that more than two-thirds of the projected population of 2.5 billion will be living in urban centres by 206334. This has far-reaching implications from demographic, spatial and structural standpoints. Thus the urban issue is a crucial part of Agenda 2063. Africa needs to tap the transformative force of urbanization; it offers vital opportunities for economic development, entry into export markets and global value chains, as well as social and human development.

Urbanization is estimated to be occurring at an average rate of 3.2 per cent annually. The implications are a doubling of the continent’s population in 20 years and a tripling in 40 years. Africa’s urban population will reach over 800 million from 400 million, just slightly over 50 per cent of the population35. By 2063, up to 62 per cent of Africa’s projected population will be found in urban centres, while 38 per cent will be in rural areas36.

However, unlike experiences from other regions, rural populations will continue to rise up to 2050, making it important to address both urban and rural population growth. Africa’s urbanization agenda must thus address the dynamics of human settlements in the framework of increasing urbanization accompanied by an absolute increase in the number of the rural population.

This growth in urban population has many implications: spatial planning; access to housing; provision of basic services; job creation; economic and social development. However, construction of housing to accommodate a trebling of urban population will be a major challenge.

Urban centres will act as important engines of growth and Africa’s economic transformation in the coming decades. Urbanization and urban centres will contribute through enhanced productivity, industrialization, manufacturing and value-addition. The growth of Africa’s middle class, which will mostly occur in urban centres, will spur the growth of consumer-facing sectors.

However, skills development, employment and access to services and finance will be critical, as well as urban-rural linkages. Urban centres will also be a key to promoting regional integration, providing the nodes for the linkages associated with integration, and facilitating the movement of goods, services, capital and people.

Rapid urbanization in Africa is likely to impact on all aspects of the continent’s development in the coming decades. Appropriate policies need to be in place to address the challenges and tap the benefits and opportunities associated with the phenomenon.

 

 

 

 

 

34 Framework for Africa Urban Agenda. AMCHUD, Fifth Session of the African Ministerial Conference on Housing and urban Development, February 2014, N’Djamena, Chad

35   Ibid

36   Ibid

 

Highlights of Africa’s Economic Performance •     African countries have been among the fastest growing in the world in recent decades. During the 2002–2008 period, Africa’s economic growth rate averaged 5.6 per cent per annum. After a dip to 2.2 per cent in 2009, in the aftermath of the global food crisis of 2007/2008 and fuel price hikes, growth rebounded to 4.6 per cent in 2010 and 5.0 per cent in 2012. Excluding UMA countries, growth in the rest of Africa averaged 5 percent in 2013; and is projected to reach 5.8 percent in 2014 and 5 – 6 percent in 2015. •     This positive growth has been generally shared by all regions, but with variation among sub- regions. Primary commodities export has been the main driver of growth in many cases, although some countries, which are neither oil nor mineral exporting countries, have done remarkably well. The continent’s collective GDP reached US$2.5 trillion in 2013; however, this is roughly equal to that of Brazil’s or Russia’s. •     Per capita income more than doubled in the past decade-from US$958 (2004) to US$1878 (2012) but with variation among countries. It is worth noting that Africa’s per capita income was at par with that of East Asia in 1970. Forty years later in 2010, East Asia’s per capita income was five times higher. •     African states have improved their respective macroeconomic management, which was reflected in the continent’s macroeconomic stability of the past decade. Africa reduced its collective inflation rate from 22 percent in the 1990s to 2.6 percent in the past decade. Aggregate foreign debt declined from 82 percent of GDP to 59 percent; while the budget deficit from 4.6 percent of GDP to 1.8 percent. •     Africa’s investment share in GDP reached 23 percent, during the last decade, ending a long period of decline and stagnation during the 1980s and the 1990s. However, it remains about 10 percentage points lower than, for example, India. •     Private sector investment has also grown in absolute terms; although its relative share in GDP has declined. Recorded remittances have also shown resilience to the economic and financial crisis of past years; and continued to support livelihoods of many Africans including their access to education and health services. For the upper-middle-income African countries, private investment represents the main source of development finance, on average, accounting for 70% of total external flows over the 2010-14 period.

Economic growth, structural transformation and job creation

Maintaining high economic growth rates, coupled with structural transformation of African economies and more inclusive job-creating growth are central to attaining the Agenda 2063 aspiration of prosperity.

The   overview   presented   below    highlights the progress and challenges with respect to:

economic growth, employment, trade and investment; private sector development and financial services; and industrialization and manufacturing.

Economic growth, employment, trade and investment

One of the outstanding features of Africa in the past two decades has been the continent’s performance on the economic front – see text box. However, as indicated earlier, the robust economic growth experienced by many African countries has not translated into wellbeing of most African people, mainly because of low employment intensity of the primary commodities’ (mostly exported in raw form) sector (poor ability to generate jobs)37.

In terms of employment: (i) Africa’s labour force reached 419 million in 2012, with a participation rate of 65.5 per cent of the working-age population (excluding UMA countries). The participation of women and youth falls below the average; (ii) the employment generated was also of low quality and low wage with limited possibilities for labour to move from one job to another. Today, about 75 per cent of the African labour force is engaged in vulnerable employment, which is mostly in the informal sector of the economy. Africa’s trade performance has improved in recent years, but is dominated by primary commodities, and continues to be driven by rising commodity prices.

The main features of Africa’s trade are: (i) Africa’s

share in global exports has also declined from 4.99 per cent in 1970 to 3. 33 per cent in 2010, while that of East Asia, for example, rose from 2.25 per cent to 17.8 per cent during the same

 

 

 

37  (ECA and AUC, 2010)

 

Challenges of Africa’s Private Sector •     A relatively large and growing informal segment, which is also a dominant source of employment for women. “The share of informal employment as a percentage of local non-agricultural employment rose from 40 per cent in the period from 1985 to 1989 to 61 per cent over the period from 2000 to 2007”; •     Dominance of micro- and small-scale enterprises in both formal and informal sectors. Although large firms exist in many countries, “medium- scale enterprises that play a crucial role in the economic development of emerging and developed economies are either absent or few in number” (UNCTAD 2013). The relatively small size of African firms represents missed opportunity to operate at an optimum scale and benefit from the economies of scale needed to be competitive; •     Absence of or limited inter-firm linkages, i.e., between the formal and informal economies, between small and large firms and between domestic and foreign firms hinders expansion of skills base, innovation capabilities and creation of horizontal and vertical linkages within the national economy.

period (UNECA 2013); (ii) on the import side, fuels make up more than 17 per cent of Africa’s imports, of which over 90 per cent consist of refined petroleum products38. Africa also continues to source basic consumables, such as food, clothing and household items largely from outside of the continent; (iii) trade in agri-food, an important sector, continues to face several challenges due to its heavy concentration on a limited range of raw commodities (coffee, cocoa, tea, cotton, peanut, palm oil, pineapple, banana, fish and shellfish); high vulnerability to price volatility in global markets; unfair global trade practices and severe competition from highly developed and more productive systems; and (iv) Africa (excluding North Africa) remains one of the most expensive regions for trading internationally, just below Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Trade costs in landlocked countries are even higher; Africa has eleven of the world’s

twenty countries with the highest cost of exports. This is compounded by: long processing time; limited port capacity and limited access to trade finance.

Private sector development and financial services

Africa’s private sector is growing rapidly as countries continue to liberalize their markets, promote entrepreneurship, improve their legal and institutional frameworks, offer incentives and guarantees, and encourage open competition. Nevertheless, the sector remains at an infant stage compared to other continents.

Africa continues to lag behind other regions of the world in financial sector development. Commercial banks dominate the financial sector. Capital markets (stock exchanges) are not also well developed. Interbank market transactions are limited. Only 3.5 per cent of the African market is insured, indicating a vast opportunity for insurance firms as untapped sources of finance. With growth of population, incomes and the middle class, while the African pension industry is growing fast with asset value estimated at $379 billion,39 it is not yet fully integrated into the continent’s financial system and economic development. In general, the lack of access to finance by households and enterprises, particularly the smaller ones, and women continue to be a major constraint to development.

Industrialization and manufacturing40

 

Industrialization and manufacturing is key to Africa’s structural transformation. This will enable value-addition, growth of high paying jobs, increased incomes and greater share of Africa in global value chains.

In the early decades following independence, many African countries embarked on state

– led import substitution industrialization. The initial impact of the strategy was an increase in manufacturing output and jobs. By the mid-70’s, however, the strategy ran into problems, including productivity declines and recurring losses fuelled by overvalued currencies, macro-economic imbalances, inflation and shortage of foreign exchange to purchase critical inputs. Stabilization

 

38 UNECA analysis based on UNCTAD statistics.

39      Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/articles/pension-funds-hold-substantial-cash-for-private-equity-investment-in-africa

 

Features of Africa’s Manufacturing Sector •     The share of the manufacturing sector in GDP declined from more than 12 per cent to around 11 per cent (UNECA, 2013). •     Africa’s share in world output and global exports, the share of manufacturing in GDP, share of manufacturing in total exports have all declined relative to their 1970 levels; including during the past decade, when Africa enjoyed impressive GDP growth rates of around 5-6 percent. •     Africa’s share in world output declined marginally between 1970 (2.75%) and 2010 (2.7%) while that of East Asia increased by more than two fold: 1970 (9.82%) and 2010 (20%). •     Between 1980 and 2010, Africa’s manufacturing share in GDP declined by one percent to about 10 percent, while that of East Asia remained above 31 percent. •     Africa’s share of manufactured goods in total export of goods was 18 percent in 2010, while for countries that transformed their economies through export led industrialization was about 87 percent. •     Africa’s medium and high technology manufacturing output was 25 percent of total manufacturing output in 2010 while the corresponding figure for countries that achieved industrial transformation was over 85 percent. Source: Economic Report on Africa 2013.

programs (Structural Adjustment Programs) under the Bretton Woods Institutions led to the closing down / sale of some of the industries, reduction of   local   manufacturing   capacity and employment, worsening of poverty and increasing socio-economic   inequities.   The SAP period as been described by many as the beginning of the de-industrialization of Africa at a time when East Asian countries embarked upon the transformation of their economies through export led industrialization / manufacturing.

Today, Africa’s manufacturing sector faces many challenges such as: lack of appropriate policies and shortage of skills; rigid labour laws in some countries; inadequate power supply; cumbersome and expensive transport within the continent; low labour productivity and lack of innovation; political instability; and corruption (UNECA 2013).

Low productivity, competiveness and poor linkages with global value chains also hamper growth of the manufacturing sector. Africa’s

competitiveness has improved in recent years, although it continues to lag behind the rest of the world. Even the most competitive African economy, South Africa, ranks 54th out of 144 countries and the second most competitive country, Mauritius, ranks 55th 41. This low level of Africa’s competitiveness is reflected in Africa’s very low share (4 per cent) of global trade.

Based on the above analysis, the following policy measures need to be put in place to ensure Africa’s industrial development and growth of manufacturing and private sector development:

• Industrialization and commodity diversification: Build on measures promoted by the LPA, NEPAD’s / AU Africa Productive Capacity Initiative and its sequel the AIDA together with others (African Mining Vision and the Yaoundé Vision on Artisanal and Small-scale Mining).
• Accelerate the development of the private sector. Build on the creation of the AU Private Sector Forum as part of the AU structures and the Investment Climate Facility (ICF), building capacities in several fronts to: (i) overcome market and institutional failures and pursue sustainable business practices, (ii) strengthen and expand innovation capabilities and value chains to be regionally and globally competitive; and (iii) promote effective involvement in areas traditionally in the public domain, for example, investment in infrastructure markets including ICT, transport (road, air and maritime) and power.
• Africa has the potential to access global value chains and enter into global processes and markets directly by providing specific skills or products without the need to create entire But harnessing such opportunities entails putting in place the right policies and organizations as well as governance architecture to ensure that Africa not only participates in global value chains, but does so at the high end rather than at the low end of the chain.

 

40 The countries that transformed their economies are: Brazil, Chile, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam

41 World Economic Forum: The Global Competitiveness Report 2012–2013

 

• Beneficiation42: To fuel its industrialization, manufacturing and value addition, as well as contribute to structural transformation, Africa needs to benefit from more value addition to its vast mineral resources Rising commodity prices have spurred mining companies to make significant investments in exploration. New technologies will make mining in Africa’s remote regions economically viable; and also transform the landscape of mineral-dependent countries with some benefiting from shifts in globally important minerals, while others, once heavily dependent on mining and mineral revenues, will need to diversify into other sectors.

Political instability and state fragility have emerged as a tendency in countries with poor resource management records. In many cases, the sheer volume of revenues generated from the mineral or oil resources has also taken the attention of decision makers away from export diversification and value addition at the expense of local production. Many African economies remain highly vulnerable to the volatility of commodity exports and large price fluctuations in global markets.

Key global trends and factors •     Due to her high population growth, low and declining agricultural productivity, policy distortions, weak institutions and poor infrastructure, among others, Africa has turned into a net food importer, is currently importing nearly a quarter of her food needs. Consequently, one in four undernourished people in the world live in Africa. This calls for urgent measures for reducing food insecurity and malnutrition, among them, the need to implement clear and affirmative policies for sustainable food security. •     Climate change requires rethinking of farming systems as existing know-how and traditions are now challenged by environmental changes; thus, new cases are being advanced for adaptation and increased resilience; •     Globalization of market induced competition with products that benefit from support by some of the exporting countries or are produced under improved technology supported and productive economies of scale are conditions that are barely reachable by average African farmers. This results in prices that hamper the competitiveness of African agricultural products, especially those emanating from smallholders, and calls for measures aimed at enhancing competiveness; and •     The search for new sources of green energy induces increased demand for staples and for land, particularly for bio-fuel production. Without proper policies, regulatory frameworks, transparency and accountability, such ventures are driving the poor and rural/agriculture population further into poverty.

Recent discoveries of minerals in several African countries is expected to further expand fiscal space as well as public spending in several African countries. It is imperative that the wealth generated be reinvested, particularly, in developing human capital, industry/manufacturing capacity, social and economic infrastructure through: (i) ensuring Africa’s ownership of the development process and strengthening initiatives to monitor revenues generated; (ii) achieving a higher level of transparency and investing natural resources wealth in the creation of knowledge for economic innovation; (iii) negotiating better terms with external partners; and (iv) integrating fully the natural resources sector into national development plans.

Agriculture, food and nutrition

In the last decade, many African countries have experienced significant economic growth. However, the continent still faces major challenges including food insecurity and undernourishment, unemployment particularly of youth and women and this situation is most acute in rural areas.

The agricultural/rural population in Africa stands at 530 million people, and is expected to exceed 580 million by 2020. About 48per cent of this population relies directly on agriculture for economic and livelihood needs. Evidence in Africa and elsewhere shows that agricultural performance is central in driving socio-economic transformation, especially in the traditionally economically marginalized and largely rural populations.

With 60 per cent of the world’s arable land, agriculture is Africa’s greatest potential and can serve as the main engine to propel the continent’s growth and transformation. Africa has everything it needs to feed itself and the world – including arable lands with fertile soils and abundant water and hard-working farmers with longstanding knowledge of working the land. The sector

 

 

42 It is estimated that Africa hosts about 30 percent of the world’s mineral reserves, including 40 percent of gold, 60 percent of cobalt, 72 percent of chromium and 65 percent of diamonds.

 

accounts, on the average, for 37 per cent of Africa’s GDP, 40 per cent of total export value, and engages over 65 per cent of the African workforce. Smallholder, rain-fed and subsistence sector dominates Africa’s agriculture. Currently only 3.5 per cent of Africa’s agriculture is irrigated and despite its huge endowment with land, Africa generates only 10 per cent of the world’s agricultural output.

Despite strong economic growth over the last decade, the average annual growth of agricultural output barely reached 4 per cent; way below the 6 per cent CAADP target. Africa’s food demand continues to outstrip domestic supply owing to high population growth, rapid urbanization, income growth and the emergence of a large middle class. While Africa’s food production rose significantly from around 130 million metric tons in 1963 to 580 million metric tons in 2011, cereal imports, for example, increased from 5 million metric tons in 1963 to over 50 million metric tons today.

The average daily per capita caloric intake stands at 2,500 (up from just over 2,000 in 1963) with poor households spending more than 60 per cent of their income on food (UNECA 2009). Further, the high world food prices that started in the second half of the first decade of the new Millennium resulted in the deterioration of Africa’s terms of trade (UNECA 2009) and increased dependence on food aid.

In terms of productivity, Africa’s (excluding the UMA countries) average fertilizer use is 11 kg/ha as compared to 167 kg/ha for other developing regions, and 250 kg/ha for Asia; and the continent continues to suffer from serous soil nutrient depletion including primarily from soil and water erosion and nutrient leaching. The soils of many African countries are among the most degraded in the world with about 20 per cent of Africa’s agricultural lands seriously degraded; while up to 75 per cent of farmland is vulnerable to erosion and soil nutrient depletion.

Further, Africa (excluding UMA countries) has the lowest rate of mechanization with motorized equipment contributing to only about 10 per cent of farm power, compared to 50 per cent in other regions. Although the area of cultivated arable land has expanded from 132 to 184 million hectares between 1970 and 2010, the average farm size has declined from 0.59 hectares per rural person to 0.35 hectare during the same period (Africa Agriculture Status Report, 2014).

Despite huge fresh water resources, large rivers and lakes (Congo, Nile, Zambezi and Niger and Lake Victoria), Africa is the second driest continent in the world, after Australia. Africa’s annual water availability of 4,008m3 although way above the water stress limit of 1,700 m3 is unevenly distributed. Ground water, which about 75 per cent of the African population uses, accounts only for about 15 per cent of the continent’s total renewable water resources (Africa Water Vision 2025). Several countries, for example, all Greater Horn of Africa countries are either close to or below the water the water stress limit. In response, the AUC in collaboration with UNECA and AfDB have launched the “Africa Water Vision 2025,” which promotes, inter alia, the development of water sources as well as the equitable and sustainable use and efficient management of water resources.

There are a number of AU continental frameworks and declarations made to combat Africa’s food and agriculture problem, notably, CAADP (2003), the Maputo Declaration (2003), the Sirte Declaration (2004), Abuja Food Security Summit Declaration (2006), and Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation that offer strong basis for Agenda 2063 to build upon. There is now an Implementation strategy and Roadmap to translate the Malabo declaration into concrete outcomes. It is, however, vitally important to put in place mechanisms that help break the cycle of failures to translate political commitments to actual implementation and deliver on such commitments.

 

In the area of nutrition, one in four undernourished people in the world live in Africa, where the number of undernourished people has consistently increased over the last several decades. Since the early 1970s, Africa has increasingly turned into a net food importer, is currently importing nearly a quarter of her food needs. Reasons for this scenario are many and vary from country to country. However, common issues include high population growth, low and declining agricultural productivity, policy distortions, weak institutions and poor infrastructure. Indeed, for Africa, food security is a matter of national security that calls for urgent measures for reducing food insecurity and malnutrition. To this end, African countries need to implement clear and affirmative policies for attaining sustainable food security.

Blue / ocean economy43

 

Africa’s bodies of water are endowed with abundant flora and fauna and marine ecosystems including diverse fish and other aquatic life, coral reefs; and are also sources of livelihoods to many Africans including water, food, power generation and transportation. Coastal areas and lake basins have also emerged not only as major tourist attractions but also as important sources of minerals, including oil and gas. The sector creates jobs for 7.1 million fishers (2.7 million in marine fisheries and 3.4 million in inland fisheries and 1 million in aquaculture) and over 59per cent of these people are women.

Africa’s ocean and coastal resources include a total length of over 26,000 nautical miles of coastline across the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, the Mediterranean and Red Seas. However, the dumping of toxic waste, illegal trafficking, oil spills, degradation of the marine environment, transnational organized crimes, among others, have seriously threatened Africa’s oceans, seas and lakes. These problems are compounded by the aggravated effects of climate change, most notably the rising ocean temperatures and ocean acidification that is leading to the weakening of the capacity of the ocean carbon sink and loss of fishery resources, and also reduction in the size of water bodies, such as Lake Chad (UNEP 2002). In response, the AU developed and launched the 2050 African Integrated Maritime (AIM) Strategy to help tackle the above problems in a strategic, coordinated and sustainable manner.

There is need to develop a framework that defines Africa’s Blue Economy, help coordinate activities at the continental level and provide support to member states, in particular, small island states on strategies for beneficiation of sectors that have immediate potential for growth and job creation, such as aquaculture in marine and fresh waters; enhanced science, technology and innovations for sustainable management, and collaborative management of shared water resources and conservation.

Environment, natural resources and climate change

 

Africa’s natural resources: biodiversity, land, forests and wetlands

 

Africa’s natural resources play a critical role for vast segments of Africa’s population who depend on the continent’s biodiversity, forests and land for their livelihoods directly or indirectly. These natural resources also make a direct contribution to economic development through tourism, agriculture, logging and other activities.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

43 “Blue Economy” as used here refers to a sustainable and equitable economic growth driven by oceans, seas, lakes, rivers and floodplains.

 

Specifically:

 

• Africa is well endowed with biodiversity: both variety and abundance of species, ecosystems and genetic resources. Five of the 20 global centres of plant diversity are located in Africa. Africa has over 2 million km2 of protected areas, which is about 6per cent of Africa’s total land area, less than the 10per cent recommended by IUCN. These national parks and protected areas are concentrated in the savannah habitats of large mammals (elephants, black and white rhinos, lions, etc.), particularly those of Eastern and Southern Africa.
• In the African setting, land, in addition to it being the primary source of livelihood and productive base, continues to occupy a central place in the cultural, political and social organization of many countries.
• Forests have special place in Africa’s economic, social, and cultural wellbeing. They are vital sources of food, energy, construction material, employment, local and foreign trade as well as cultural identity. Forests also provide essential environmental services including controlling soil and water erosion, regulating climatic variability, conserving lakes and wetlands, and freshwater systems.

However, the continent’s natural resources – biodiversity, land and forests – are facing increasing challenges:

• Habitat loss is the major factor behind biodiversity loss. Evidence supports also a trend of accelerating erosion of the genetic resources of agricultural plants and animals with growing genetic uniformity of agricultural plants and animals, which means an increased risk of food loss from major epidemics.
• Land: unequal distribution of land, small farmers pushed out to marginal areas by large investment programs, severe soil degradation, deforestation accompanied by flooding and intermittent droughts are its main The recent scramble for Africa’s land by big investors (mostly foreign) in bio-fuels, minerals and oil, lately food production for consumption abroad without the necessary arrangements to ensure value addition, social and environmental sustainability as well as strong backward and forward linkages to the economy.
• Land degradation and desertification are believed to impact 43 per cent of Africa’s land surface with serious environmental and socio-economic
• The continent lost over 4 million hectares of forests annually over the past two decades due to extensive agricultural practices, unregulated and unsustainable wood harvesting and illegal commercial logging.

A number of policy measures need to be put in place:

 

• The African Convention on the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, African Water Vision, the Land Policy Framework for Africa lay the ground for putting in place the necessary sustainable land management, conservation of wild life and ecosystems, adaptation and mitigation programs and make transition to a low carbon economy through climate smart agriculture and energy development.
• The land question is a critical issue, hence the need to incorporate the implementation of the AU, AfDB and UNECA Framework Guideline on Land Policy in Africa as well as the Guiding Principles on Large Scale Land Based Investments in Africa to ensure equitable access to land, sustainable management of all land and water resources, protection of national parks and Natural World Heritage sites. Corporate social and environmental responsibility should also be enforced with observance of and recognition of the centrality of sustainable natural

 

resource management in the development process, including social reconstruction, poverty reduction, enhancing economic opportunities for women, tenure security, accelerating agricultural modernization, preventing conflicts and enhancing conflict resolution.

Climate change

Climate change is a global threat with severe, cross-sectoral, long-term, and in several cases, irreversible impact. While Africa’s contribution to the effects of global climate change remains low due to its low industrialization rate, the IPCC in its 2007 Report declared Africa as one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change. Furthermore, the most recent IPCC report (2014) confirms with a high degree of confidence that African ecosystems are already being affected by climate change, and future impacts are expected to be substantial.

Effects of climate change include the prevalence and severity of extreme events such as heat and cold waves, dust storms, severe winds, floods, droughts, greater rainfall variability and patterns that distort traditional crop cycles, would diminish agricultural and industrial raw materials productivity as well as export earnings, increase in plant and animal pests and diseases. Africa’s fragile peace and security is also severely impacted by the worsening environmental stress and resulting population displacement, spontaneous large-scale migration, land encroachment, and refugees. Sea level rise, increased frequency of coastal cities and erosion of coastal assets would severely impact major African cities. Nevertheless, Africa has a huge opportunity to build robust economies with sustained high economic growth rate, while at the same time reducing the immense risks of climate change.

In particular, Africa’s agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change, which adversely impacts not only production and productivity, but also people’s daily lives, including what to grow and when to plant, what livestock to keep, where to live, settlement patterns, overall well-being, attitudes, and hopes. However, under current agricultural management and practices, agriculture is also a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions; about 24 per cent of global GHG emissions is through enteric fermentation, manure deposited on pasture, synthetic fertilizers, paddy rice cultivation and biomass burning (Africa Agriculture Status Report, 2014), compounded by land use changes arising from extensive agricultural practices.

Disaster risk reduction and management

Because of its geographic location and low level of technological development, Africa remains highly vulnerable to disasters44. Most Africa’s disaster risks appear climate related or hydro- meteorological hazards, i.e., drought, flood and windstorms.

Less frequent hazards include pest infestation, earthquakes, landslides, wildfire and volcanic eruptions. Cyclones mainly affect Madagascar, Mozambique, and some of the Indian Ocean islands. More prevalent are diseases outbreaks, such as Ebola, that have left a trail of heavy destruction of both life and livelihoods. While African households have developed strong disaster capacity entrenched in their culture, these capacities, however, are challenged by outbreaks such as Ebola.

The African Strategy for Disaster Reduction and the Programme of Action for the Implementation of the Africa Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (2006-2015) provide a foundation for a comprehensive and robust disaster risk reduction and preparedness African capacity with financing mechanism.

 

3.2.2   An Integrated continent, politically united based on the ideals of Pan Africanism and the vision of Africa’s Renaissance

Under this aspiration, Africa by 2063 would have emerged as a sovereign, independent and self- reliant continent – a united and strong Africa that realizes full economic and political integration.

Political unity

As shown previously, the OAU was largely hamstrung and incapable of spearheading continental unity because of its insistence on non-interference in Member States, its subordination to State interests and its lack of appropriate structures and resources. The AU on the other hand has set up strong institutions/organs and established robust normative frameworks to address democracy, governance and human rights, constitutional government, promote regional integration and economic development, peace and security to cite a few.

From the analysis in section 3.1, it is clear that the piece-meal approach to continental unity has not borne fruit. After 50 years, the vision of a United Africa remains elusive; furthermore, the question of the ultimate form of continental unity: a United States of Africa, or a Confederation of States, or some other form has still not been resolved.

Agenda 2063 affords a unique opportunity for the present generation of African leaders, intellectuals, policy makers, ordinary men and women, as well as the youth to debate and reach consensus so as to definitively decide this question. While the voices of Africans during the consultations, particularly the youth, showed a strong preference for rapid progress towards continental unity, it is unclear to what extent this is a priority for Africa’s current political leadership.

Regional integration

When the OAU was established, regional integration was one of its primary objectives. However, due to the circumstances in which it was established, the organization found itself focusing more on political issues, particularly the decolonization agenda. However, by the mid-1970s, OAU took concrete steps towards promoting socio-economic development and integration and decided in 1976 to establish the African Economic Community (AEC) by the year 2000 – a culmination of many related previous initiatives.

Today, with 55 states, Africa is the world’s most fragmented continent – a legacy of colonialism. Small population and economic output, hence limited markets and lack of competitiveness as well as economies of scale in the production and distribution of goods and services characterize many African countries.

The Lagos Plan of Action (LPA) and the Final Act of Lagos of 1980 placed regional/economic integration as a key pillar of Africa’s self-reliance, economic growth and transformation. A decade later, in 1991, the Abuja Treaty was signed to complete the process and “establish an African Economic Community constituting an integral part of the OAU” to “promote economic, social and cultural development and the integration of African economies.” The Abuja Treaty envisaged establishing the African Economic Community over a 34-year period in stages starting with the establishment of economic communities in regions.

Currently, there are eight officially recognized Regional Economic Communities (RECs): the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS); the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA); the Southern African Development Community (SADC); the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS); the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD); Community of Sahel and Saharan States (CEN-SAD) and the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU).

An urgent measure to promote regional integration is the establishment of the Continental Free Trade Area. The Addis Ababa AU Summit of 2014 agreed upon, among others, to: fast-track the

 

establishment of the CFTA and the transition to a continental Customs Union with a Common External Tariff (CET) scheme; increase investment in market and trade infrastructure; promote/ strengthen multi-stakeholder platforms; and strengthen/streamline coordination mechanisms to promote a common African position on agriculture-related international trade negotiations and partnership agreements.

The BIAT (Boosting of Intra-African Trade) Action Plan has seven critical clusters that include: trade policy; trade facilitation; productive capacity; trade and infrastructure; trade finance; trade information; factor market and integration. The action plan has short, medium and long-term measures to deliver concrete outputs with responsibilities shared between the RECs, Member States and the AU organs. The establishment of the CFTA and its fast tracking will lead to a significant growth of Intra-Africa trade and assist Africa to use trade more effectively as an engine of growth, job creation, reducing poverty and sustainable development.

The CFTA will help enhance resilience of African economies to external shocks; improve competitiveness of Africa’s industrial products through harnessing the economies of scale of a large continental market; increase the depth and breadth of diversification through geographically based specialization and transform the continent’s capacity to supply its import needs from within Africa; and boost food security through reduction of protection on trade in agricultural produce among African countries.

In a huge step towards the CFTA, it has been agreed to launch the tripartite FTA. The tripartite FTA encompassing 26 Member/Partner States from COMESA, EAC and SADC, has a combined population of 625 million people and a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of USD 1.2 trillion, and will account for half of the membership of the African Union and 58per cent per cent of the continent’s GDP. The tripartite FTA will be the largest economic bloc on the continent and the launching pad for the establishment of the Continental Free Trade Are (CFTA) in 2017.

Intra- African trade

Trade has played a critical role in the economic development of countries both developed and developing. In recent times, the rise of the “Asian tigers” and China has largely been attributed to the impact of trade. This has had a tremendous impact on incomes, jobs and poverty reduction. In fact through trade China has been able to lift over 300 million of its population out of poverty in just a few decades. However, trade has still not played this role in Africa’s development.

• The volume of intra-African trade has increased from $32 billion in 2000 to $130 billion in 2011. Despite this growth, the share of intra-African trade in total trade has not shown significant progress over the past half century and remained at 12per cent per
• During the 2007 to 2011 period, for example, the average share of intra-African exports in total merchandise exports was 11 per cent compared with 50 per cent in developing Asia, 21 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean and 70 per cent in Europe45.
• Africa’s phenomenal economic growth in recent years, has not been translated into improved intra-African trade; but improved trade with external partners. Africa’s trade with emerging economies has been, particularly, growing fast (UNCTAD, 2010).
• On the positive side, intra-African trade is diversified and favours manufactured goods signalling the huge potential intra-African trade has to support Africa’s industrialization and structural transformation.

 

• In 2012, industrial products accounted for about 60 per cent of the total intra-African trade, while primary and petroleum products accounted for 18.5 per cent followed by agriculture and food products at 9 per cent. Services trade remains low at only 4.3 per cent.
• There is, however, significant country heterogeneity in the importance of intra-African trade among African countries. For example, over the period from 2007 to 2011, intra-African exports accounted for at least 40 per cent of total exports in 9 countries: Benin, Djibouti, Kenya, Mali, Rwanda, Senegal, Togo, Uganda and Zimbabwe.
• In terms of imports, 11 countries imported at least 40 per cent of their goods from Africa over the same period. With the exception of ECCAS, a very high percentage of the African trade carried out within each REC goes to its own region, indicating that the formation of these communities has a positive impact on trade within the bloc. For example, in the period from 2007 to 2011, 78 per cent of SADC trade within Africa went to the SADC
• For many African countries, trading costs, manufacturing tariff costs and non-tariff trade costs are higher vis-à-vis regional partners than with the rest of the world46. Document preparation for export/import47 and settling of payments in Africa are relatively very expensive Africa remains one of the most expensive regions for trading internationally, just below Eastern Europe and Central Asia48.

Key policy measures for expanding trade and investment: This involves, first and foremost, expanding productive capacity of the economy and its competitiveness. It will also involve:

• Expanding and deepening intra-African trade through, among others, removing constraints to trade through removing tariff and non-tariff barriers including poor infrastructure, limited port capacity, limited access to finance, lack of exploitation of supply chain potential, paucity of productive capacity, governance issues and political/security instability; and
• Accelerating the establishment of CFTA as per decisions of the Addis Ababa Summit (2014), which agreed upon, among others, to fast-track the establishment of the CFTA and the transition to a continental Customs Union with a Common External Tariff (CET) scheme, increase investment in market and trade infrastructure, promote/strengthen multi-stakeholder platforms, and strengthening/streamlining coordination mechanisms to promote a common African position on agriculture-related international trade negotiations and partnership agreements.

Infrastructure, connectivity and energy

Infrastructure

Africa’s economic infrastructure gap remains a key constraint to development and provision of basic services. The lack of interconnectedness hinders countries from linking up and benefiting from national, regional and global opportunities. Africa’s deficient infrastructure curtails economic growth by as much as 2 per cent a year.

Railways, a common and cheap form of transportation elsewhere in the developing world, has been slow to develop in Africa. The existing railway infrastructure is old with poor technical standards and only little investment has been made in the last decades. The situation appears to be changing however, as shown by planned new rail line linking Mombasa to Uganda and Butare in Rwanda.

 

 

46 UNECA, 2013: Facilitating Trade: an African Perspective. Addis Ababa: UNECA.

47 UNECA analysis based on ESCAP World Bank International Trade Costs Statistics.

48 UNECA, 2013: Facilitating Trade: an African Perspective. Addis Ababa: UNECA.

 

Africa’s road access rate is only 34 per cent compared with 50 per cent in other parts of the developing world. Transport costs are also high. The road infrastructure, though most dominant, is uneven and concentrated in urban areas. Africa’s rural sector remains poorly served. The delay in developing the Trans Africa Highway Network to connect the continent is seriously hampering the physical interconnectedness of the continent. Today, about 25 per cent of the Trans Africa Highways (TAHs) is still to be completed.

Maritime transport and intra- African trade are constrained by aging fleet, high freight cost and poor inland transport. Also a challenge is poor connectivity between the mainland continent and African Island States. Problems associated with the limited port capacities and facilities are compounded by port inefficiencies, which result in long delays, first at anchorage, and in the series of operations necessary to lift merchandise from the port (the so-called ‘dwell time’).

The African air routes network is relatively small with low connectivity; and with “non-African airlines accounting for 80 per cent of the intra-continental market” 49 Air transport is booming and the market in Africa is growing at an unprecedented rate, but the same cannot be said about the airlines in the continent. With its wide geographical area, Africa is a home to about 1 billion people. The most dynamic economies of recent years are in Africa and the continent is now the second fastest growing with rapid development and transformation. Air transport has a significant role as an engine for inter and intra-regional integration as it increases accessibility between regions, reduces travel time and cost by providing connectivity amongst several cities and countries of the African continent which would have been very difficult otherwise. The expansion of air service is also important for enhancing tourism and trade; the International Air Transport Association (IATA) statistics show that aviation in Africa supports 6.7 million jobs and contributes $67.8 billion in economic activity.

However, according to estimates by the African Airlines Association’s (AFRAA), the African Airlines share of world traffic is barely 3 per cent. The capacity share of African Airlines on European and Middle Eastern routes has declined from 58 per cent in 2002 to 22 per cent in 2012 making Africa the only continent where foreign carriers perform the largest proportion of intercontinental air transportation.

African airlines are losing their market share to foreign carriers due to lack of full implementation of the Yamoussoukro Decision, which is resulting in the fragmentation of the African aviation market and airspace and difficult air connectivity. Because airlines’ operating costs in Africa are well above the world average and ground handling, navigation as well as other services costs are high, coordinated efforts are needed that focus on reducing costs in the industry. For aviation to be the driver of Africa’s political, economic and social integration, as defined by the Yamoussoukro Decision, African states should demonstrate commitment for the full implementation of this decision.

Among the policy measures needed to address Africa’s infrastructure challenges are:

 

• Developing infrastructure and related services as well as predictable / transparent legal This involves the full realization of PIDA. In particular, in the ICT sector, there is need to: put in place policies and strategies that will lead to transformative e-applications and services in Africa; improve physical infrastructure, especially the intra-African broad band terrestrial infrastructure; and cyber security, making the information revolution the basis for service delivery in the bio and nanotechnology industries. Further, the African Internet Exchange System (AXIS); e-Transform Africa, which envisages transforming Africa into an e-Society and PIDA and the manufacturing component parts for e-devices merit priority consideration;

 

 

49 Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2014. Regional Integration: Uniting to Compete- Facts & Figures.

 

• Expanding and up-scaling the fiscal space for regional integration. Regional integration goes hand in hand with a growing inter-dependence of African economies, both in the real and financial sectors, and with a transfer of monetary and fiscal autonomy from single countries to continental institutions. Successfully managing these processes will require devising effective ways to: (i) deal with shocks affecting countries in the continent; and
  • address issues of structurally-surplus and structurally-deficit countries within the future African Monetary Further, the focus of regional trade initiatives needs to shift towards development of productive capacities;

(iii)            Implementing the Yamoussoukro Decision on the full liberalization of the Airline industry leading to “open skies”; and

(iV) Expanding Africa’s railway and road networks, port facilities and other transport infrastructure to enhance connectivity, spur trade and economic growth and create jobs and putting in place the appropriate funding arrangements and instruments.

Energy

 

Africa’s energy profile is characterized by low production, low consumption, and high dependence on traditional biomass energy in the midst of a huge wealth of unexploited energy resources. The continent’s energy resource endowment includes: crude oil reserves estimated at over 130 billion barrels – about 9.5 per cent of world’s reserves; about 8 per cent of the world’s total reserves of natural gas estimated at about 15 trillion cubic metres; about 4 per cent of the world’s total proven reserves (about 95 per cent of these reserves found in Southern Africa); hydropower resources potential to generate over 1,800 TWh/yr of electricity; geothermal energy potential estimated at over 15,000 MW; and huge solar and wind power potential. Because of its proximity to the Equator, Africa has also the world’s highest average amount of solar radiation each year. Africa’s bioenergy potential is immense, particularly given rapid advances in research that have brought new energy crops into production and second-generation lingo-cellulosic technologies within reach in less than a decade.

Despite the huge energy resources, the continent faces enormous energy challenges that include low generation capacity and efficiency, high costs, unstable and unreliable energy supplies, low access to modern energy, insufficient energy infrastructure, and lack of institutional and technical capacity to harness huge resources. Partly due to dependence on fossil fuels for generation of electricity, the average electricity tariff in Africa is about US$0.14 per kWh compared to US$0.04 in East Asia. Further, a number of countries have introduced containerized mobile diesel units for emergency power generation to cope with power outages at a cost of about US$0.35/KWh, with lease payment absorbing more than 1 per cent of GDP in many cases (UNECA 2011).

Today, most African countries have developed energy plans and policies that aim at: attaining energy security, achieving transition from traditional to modern and clean sources of energy and ensuring access of a majority of their citizens to electricity, and raise the share of renewable energy in total energy production. For countries heavily dependent on petroleum, technological change and rapid development of new sources of energy are likely to reduce the importance of petroleum.

Accelerating Africa’s transition from traditional to modern sources of energy and ensuring access to clean and affordable energy is a development imperative. Under the auspices of the AU, nineteen African countries have, recently, endorsed the Africa Clean Energy Corridor, an initiative that could advance the development of renewable energy projects in the East and Southern African Power Pool from its current 12 per cent to at least 40 per cent by 2030.

 

Information and communication technology

Governance and Democracy in Africa – Key Milestones and Instruments •     Recognition of the Charter of the United Nations and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights; •     Approval by the OAU in 1981 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights; •     Adoption (1981) and ratification (1986) of the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights; •     Establishment of the African Commission on Human Peoples’ Rights in Banjul, The Gambia; •     Participation in February 1990 of the OAU in election observation exercises in its Member States; •     Endorsement by the AU in 2002 of the “Declaration on the Principles Governing Democratic Elections in Africa”, re-affirming the universal principles of democratic elections stipulated in the UDHR; •     Adoption in 2005 of the Declaration on Unconstitutional Changes in Government; •     Adoption of the “African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance” (ACDEG) in January 2007 and entry into force in February 2012; •     Establishment of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) as an important instrument on governance in Africa, a home-grown instrument that has triggered the process of institutionalizing a culture of accountability, especially domestic accountability; and •     Establishment of regional level instruments which include: •     SADC: Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections (2004); Parliamentary Forum on Norms and Standards for Elections (2001); Protocol on Gender and Development (2008); Electoral Commission Forum (2001) •     ECOWAS: Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance (2001) and its supplementary protocol. •     EAC: Principles for Election Observation and Evaluation (2012) and Protocol on Good Governance. •     ECCAS: Brazzaville Declaration (2005).

The ICT industry is among the fastest growing sectors in Africa. Growth in terms of information flow, domestic and international trade, telecommunications network and services, public service provision, human capacity development and

innovation and skill enhancement are huge. Despite starting from a low base, Africa, today, has   the   potential   to   harness   sophisticated

technologies and investment in the sector is growing rapidly.

In the mobile sector, for example, in 2011, Africa became the second largest mobile market in the world after Asia, with about 620 million mobile connections. Currently, the mobile phone industry contributes around 3.5 per cent of Africa’s GDP and employs over 5 million people. The average number of Internet users in Africa is about 12 per 100 people, with large variation among countries. Increased investment in the ICT sector has clearly enormous rate of returns and has the potential to revolutionize access to markets and services.

3.2.3   An Africa of good governance, democracy, respect for human rights, justice and the rule of law

The Africa of 2063 envisaged under this aspiration, is a continent that has undergone a deepening of the culture of good governance, democratic values, gender equality, respect for human rights, justice and the rule of law.

The political systems of African countries have evolved considerably since independence and this evolution has been shaped by a number of realities and trends.

Two considered here are: (i) the movement towards greater political pluralism, decentralization and growth of civil society, as well as human rights, access to justice and the rule of law; (ii) the evolution of the role of the African state in the development process.

Democracy, governance, human rights and rule of law

Political governance, human rights and rule of law

In reviewing the evolution of governance and democracy on the continent, it is important to note that the struggle for democracy and human rights in post-colonial Africa – the so-called second wave of liberation – was essentially home-grown and had been impelled and won by Africans. The famous but now almost forgotten “national conferences” in many Francophone countries, paved the way to multi-party systems. Similarly, the “so-called “Arab spring” started on African soil in Tunisia.

 

Challenges to Governance and Democracy •     The quality of democracy remains a challenge: Internalization of democratic norms and the inconsistency in their application. Detention without trial, arbitrary arrests, torture, forced disappearances and extra-judicial killings are still unfortunately widespread; •     Access to justice and independence of the judicial system is a widespread concern; •     There are pervasive weaknesses of institutions, especially in the field of human rights at national, regional and continental levels; •     Progress in the area of human rights and the rule of law leaves much room for improvement. There many reported cases of violations of human rights, including limitations of freedom of assembly and association, freedom of speech, lack of independence of the courts, detentions (lengthy and without trails), and abuse by the uniformed services, as well as violence against women; •     While elections are essential in building democracy, they are not a panacea and there should be an active search for innovative models that secure citizens’ voice and dividends in governance; •     Civil society participation and contributions to democracy is frequently handicapped by their capacity and resources, as well as competition, internal governance and representation and legitimacy; and •     Policy making and service delivery is compromised in many countries due to poor public institutions and administration at central, municipal and local levels, leaving many citizens poorly served by their governments.

The process of democratization began with the establishment of the OAU and has continued since. However, for many years following the independence decade of the 1960s, Africa was, with a few exceptions, characterized by deficits in governance, in the form of weak institutions, unaccountable leadership, constricted political spaces and non-inclusive democratic processes. In many African countries there was a failure in participatory development and promotion of democracy, as demonstrated by military coups, one-party states, Marxist socialist regimes, authoritarian top-down systems, human rights abuses, etc. Between 1960 and 1990, it is reported that not a single opposition party came to power through the ballot box, and the ruling parties “won” all elections.

Beginning in the late 1980s however, a confluence of internal and external factors heralded remarkable transformations in Africa’s governance landscape. Notwithstanding the persistence of a number of challenges, a majority of African states have considerably improved political accountability, public service delivery and administration; devolved power to local governance structures and a culture of regular competitive elections is progressively taking root.

Since 2000, Africa has experienced significant improvements in political governance. Africa’s

democracy has largely improved through the holding of free and fair elections.

 

Stronger democracy has helped once marginalized groups to play increasing roles in the political process50. For example, women’s participation in the political process has increased across a number of countries. New constitutional, legal and institutional frameworks are strengthening the role of women in political and electoral processes. Young voters are increasingly likely to play important roles both as voters and in election observation and monitoring.

With the adoption in 2005 of the Declaration on unconstitutional changes of government, Africa has since witnessed a decline in the number of leaders ousted unconstitutionally, although five have been forced out since 2010. There are currently many former Heads of State in Africa who voluntarily left office after finishing their constitutionally determined mandates and are free citizens in their respective countries51. This phenomenon clearly reflects a maturing of democracy and governance on the continent.

The 2014 Ibrahim index of African governance shows that between 2009 and 2013, overall governance on the continent has improved. The main drivers of this overall trend have been participation and human rights, as well as human development. Positive trends are also registered for gender and rights, but the biggest gains have been recorded for political participation.

 

 

50 African economic Outlook 2014

51 For example: 3 in Botswana; 6 in Nigeria; 3 in Cape Verde; etc.

 

Progress in Elections •     While an average of only 28 elections were held on the continent in the 1960-1970 period, an average of 65 elections took place in the decade of 1980-1990. Between 2000 and 2005, some 41 elections were held on the continent. •     There were 15 Presidential elections in 2011 and five each in 2012 and 2013. •     In 2014-15, some 18 countries, which together account for half the continent’s population or over 600 million will elect their leaders. •     Most elections are now violence-free. •     By 2011, over 18 African countries were considered as democracies as compared to only 4 in 1991.

At the continental and regional levels, there has been commendable progress in terms of norms and standard setting on crucial political governance and democracy issues. A dense body of African grown norms, standards and institutions for governance and democracy have been developed. Furthermore, there is a growing consolidation of the role of civil society and non-state actors in the governance and socio-economic development of the continent. However, despite these remarkable achievements, the gains are fragile and several challenges remain.

Addressing these challenges calls for visionary

and transformative political leadership combined with vibrant citizen engagement both of which are critical for the realization of the ideals of African Agenda 2063.

Economic governance

Economic governance has shown steady progress over the last decade, which has a direct bearing on the sustainability of the economic performance of African countries52:

• Over the past decade 41 of 52 countries where data is available have registered improvements in domestic resource mobilization and public There are improvements in budget transparency and accountability of public institutions through for example, Parliamentary Accounts Committees (PACs).
• Modest progress is being made in fighting corruption, however according to Transparency International, four out of five African countries are below the world
• There are significant improvements in the business climate in many African countries. In 2013 countries with the best business climate include several African countries (Mauritius, Rwanda, Botswana, South Africa).
• Modest progress is being made in addressing illicit capital outflows, which will enhance domestic resource mobilization, strengthen inclusive growth, create jobs and sustain current growth performance.

Of particular importance is African and international initiatives for better governance in the mining sector and the extractive industry. Africa’s natural resources need to be governed effectively to foster transparency and counter illicit resource outflows and unacceptable exploitation of Africa’s natural resources. In this regards AU Member States need to be supported to fully implement the Africa Mining Vision.

To sum up, the continent has witnessed significant improvements in both political and economic governance over the last few decades but there are still many outstanding challenges.

The role of the African State in the development process

Overcoming the challenges of underdevelopment has been a constant priority for post- independence African states. As a result, African states have over the years played a central role in the development process.

 

 

52 African Economic Outlook 2014

 

Measures to Consolidate Peace and Security in Africa •    Promote ratification and implementation, building on existing AU mechanisms by setting up an independent monitoring mechanism and facilitate and support think thanks, civil society and other stakeholders to regularly evaluate the status of ratification, domestication and implementation; •    Prioritize and deepen support for the development of strong institutions at national and regional levels, in order to effectively tackle the root causes of conflicts such as bad governance and weak state institutions that perpetuate poverty, inequality, marginalization and exclusion, as well as issues relating to state legitimacy and the rule of law; •    Demilitarize politics at national level through establishment of effective civilian oversight mechanisms and processes as well as professionalization of security establishment to deepen accountability •    Strengthen capacity at all levels to implement continental frameworks on democratic governance, peace and security (the AGA and APSA) in order to accelerate progress towards sustainable peace, stability and development; •    Ensure an active involvement of all segments of society into the efforts aimed at the promotion of peace, security and stability is not only the preserve of Governments and International organizations. •    Consolidate the foundation of national infrastructures for peace involving civil society organizations, religious figures and institutions, women, private sector and other actors, including community and religious leaders, with a view to fostering inclusivity in peace processes. •    Ensure that the African Standby Force (ASF) attains full operational capability by 2015, as scheduled. In the meantime, the African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crisis (ACIRC) should be fully operationalized in the shortest time possible. •    Find a lasting solution with respect to the sustainable funding of AU led operations, especially those undertaken with the consent of the UN Security Council. •    Enhance the strategic partnership between the AU and the UN to ensure that both organizations are better equipped to deal with the evolving peace and security challenges on the continent. •    Strengthen coordination between the conflict prevention and mediation mechanisms of the Union, in particular, the relationship between the Panel of the Wise and Special Envoys and Representatives, as well as the human, financial and material resources available to these mechanisms; •    Sustain efforts to address the root causes of conflict and violence, including those relating to the eradication of poverty and the promotion of equal chances with in African societies. •    Find innovative approaches that address the nexus between security and development, prioritize the rule of law, good governance and the promotion of human rights. •    Build synergies and providing a more integrated framework for peacemaking, peacekeeping and peace building.

Characteristics of a Developmental State •    Vision setting, capable leadership and a developmental ideology (Capable (but not necessarily authoritarian) leadership constitutes a primary agency in the construction of a developmental state. •    Relative state autonomy, especially in formulating and implementing policy (the capacity of the state to formulate policies independent of contending social forces, to serve the best interests of the country as perceived by the managers of state power). •    State institutional capacity, notably a strong and competent bureaucracy •    Effective national development planning •    Coordination of economic activities and resources (effective coordination of economic activities includes creation of a pro- investment macroeconomic environment, effective supervision and monitoring of financial institutions, fiscal policies that provide incentives to the private sector, domestic resource mobilization and an effective public financial management system). •    Support for a national entrepreneurial class – make conscious efforts to expand and nurture its bourgeoisie, as it will facilitate industrialization and private sector–led economic growth. •    Commitment to expansion of human capacity •    Peace, political stability, rule of law and predictability in government business.

However, the efforts of African States to foster development and   improve    the    wellbeing of its people have not been entirely successful, partly explaining   continent’s   status as one of the least developed on the globe. The involvement of the African State in the development process, ranged from experiments with import substitution industrialization policies, backed by national development     planning      in the 1960s; through state-led inward-looking collective self- reliance strategies embodied especially in the   Lagos   Plan of Action in the 1980s. These approaches allotted the African State a commanding role in the development process, which saw it attempting to act as both the designer and executor of nearly all aspects of development. The end result was that the African State became overburdened and inefficient.

With the advent of Structural Adjustments Programs (SAPs), instituted by the Britton Woods institutions (IMF and World Bank) during the 1980s and 1990s, the role of the State in the development process was seriously questioned. However, today,   there   is   consensus that without an effective State sustainable economic and social development is   impossible. This has been   accompanied by a gradual reinvention of the African State, which has become increasingly, more tolerant of the involvement of other actors in the continent’s development endeavours, including civil society and the private sector.

Increasingly the role of the African State is seen to consist of providing the requisite

 

environment that enables various societal actors to effectively play their respective roles in the development of their polities; thus, the interest among various stakeholders of the need to encourage the emergence of developmental states in Africa, superintended by a transformative and visionary leadership, imbued with the determination to address Africa’s inter-locking challenges of participatory democracy and development.

African countries need to diversify their economies away from being raw materials exporters into manufacturing, value-addition and industrialization that is technologically advanced. Such a transformation requires an active role to be played by the State in order to direct resources and investments to productive sectors of the economy; market forces alone cannot accomplish this. African States should adopt active industrial, manufacturing and technological policies to drive the continent’s transformation. A hands-off role for the African State will not enable these functions to be fulfilled.

3.2.4   A peaceful and secure Africa

Under this aspiration, Africa is envisaged to emerge as a conflict-free continent with harmony among communities at the grassroots level and inter–state and intra-state wars eliminated and mechanisms put in place to prevent and/ resolve conflicts. Diversity (ethnic, religious, economic, cultural, etc.) would be a source of wealth and accelerated economic growth rather than a source of conflict.

The importance of ensuring peace, security and stability of the continent was recognized by the OAU from the very beginning of its existence. It established the Commission of Mediation, Conciliation and Arbitration as well as the Defence Commission and later the Central Organ and its Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution. Thus peace and security have been at the heart of concerns of Africa’s leadership from the very start.

For many decades, many African countries struggled with the challenges of deficits in governance, in the form of weak institutions, constricted political spaces and non-inclusive processes. These, alongside other factors, such as ethnicity, combined with exogenous factors, particularly the Cold War, made Africa’s peace and security landscape particularly volatile. The continent was the theatre of numerous inter-state conflicts, which were only overtaken both in frequency and intensity by intra-state conflicts after the end of the Cold War.

Many of the armed conflicts in the early decades after independence were fuelled by external interests and had their roots in economic factors. For example, mineral – rich areas were encouraged to secede with support of external forces to facilitate their easy access to these resources (e.g. Shaba in DRC in the 1960s)53. These conflicts left behind a legacy of failed and ungovernable states, insecurity and lack of development, the effects of which are still being felt today.

A deplorable effect of conflict and insecurity in Africa is the forced displacement of millions of people, particularly women and children, coupled with the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war and the phenomenon of child soldiers. These displacements predated the colonial times and continue today. Today, there are nearly 3.4 million refugees and 5.4 million internally displaced persons, and this combined with stateless people brings the total number of the forcibly displaced to 11million in Africa in 2014.

Africa’s conflicts also led to the diversion of resources away from critical development imperatives. For example, in some countries, there were prolonged periods of conflicts lasting over 20 years (Angola, Mozambique, Sudan), during which a great proportion of the country’s resources were

 

Major Threats to Africa’s Peace and Security •     The propensity to resort to the use of violence or resolution of contestations on real or perceived differences or on the distribution of resources within communities; •     Ineffective credible and legitimate democratic governance institutions for   the   prevention of violent conflicts; such as the rule of law, democratic access to power and effective wealth distribution; •     New practices and forms of confrontation and mobilization by citizens and youth that cut across historically established borders and render national level responses ineffective; •     Cultural, political, social and economic gaps between the minority at   the   center   and the larger population – rural or urban and intergenerational; •     Ease of trading, acquiring and circulating weapons; •     Failure to accommodate multiple community identities, especially at the local level, especially in fragile and conflict-affected areas; •     Limited state capacities leading to corruption lack of accountability and impunity, which restricts the provision of services.

directed to the war efforts. Africa’s regional and sub-regional organizations, the OAU/AU and the regional economic communities (RECs), dedicated much of their efforts on peace and security issues at the expense of pursuing their primary mandates of accelerating the continent’s economic development and integration. Similarly, Africa’s engagement with the rest of the world was generally dominated by calls for the international community to underwrite the cost of the continent’s conflicts, as well as to pressure its leadership to get its governance right.

Over the last decades however, there has also been a remarkable overall decline in the number of conflicts on the continent, despite the intractable character of several old conflicts and the emergence of new ones, in places such as South Sudan, Central African Republic and Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. These positive changes have been bolstered by the sustained economic growth in a number of countries, the increasing trends towards electoral democracy

as opposed to unconstitutional changes of government, and the progress made in combating corruption in many countries.

Significantly also, although Africa continues to solicit the support of the international community in the management of its conflicts, the continent has, in the past decade and half, through the African Union, successfully put in place an elaborate peace and security architecture (APSA) intended to address the entire gamut of Africa’s peace and security challenges, from prevention, through conflict management to post-conflict reconstruction and development.

The APSA complements the African Governance Architecture (AGA) and together, they hold great promise in the entrenchment of well-governed, secure and peaceful African states, which would facilitate the emergence of the Africa envisioned in Agenda 2063.

Yet, despite these significant achievements, the continent still faces tremendous challenges, particularly evidenced by recent increases in conflict since 2010, as well as violence and civil protests with potentials to degenerate into civil wars54. Incompatibility of positions, competition over scarce resources, behavioural characteristics and mutually opposed goals are some of the factors driving conflicts. Thus the need to build conflict resolution, conflict de-escalation and threat minimization mechanisms, as well as alternative dispute resolution mechanisms for intra/ inter and cross border conflicts.

There are also increasing threats posed by emerging transnational crimes such as terrorism and violent extremism, drug trafficking, piracy, illicit arms proliferation, human trafficking and smuggling, and money laundering. Other threats include: the rise in urbanization, social exclusion and unemployment; conflicts over trans boundary resources (e.g. water, oil, gas and minerals); and the impact of climate change and other factors (e.g. population growth) is triggering new conflicts over resources.

 

 

 

54 The 3rd High Level Dialogue on Democracy, Human Rights and Governance in Africa held in Dakar, Senegal (30-31 October 2014)

 

AU instruments and decisions pertaining to peace, security and governance provide a solid framework to address the current challenges to peace and security. However, there is a serious lack of a culture of implementation of these instruments and decisions. In this respect, there is a crucial need for a scrupulous and systematic implementation of instruments and decisions adopted by AU and RECs policy organs55.

The organization in response to the persistent problem of forced displaced developed landmark instruments as such as: (i) The 1969 OAU Convention Governing Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa; and (ii) the 2009 AU Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa, considered the first such legal instrument of its kind. Nonetheless, issues of forced displacement including many protracted refugee situation continue to plague many parts of the continent and urgent measures are needed to tackle the root causes as well as find durable solutions for those affected.

The importance of good governance and functional democracy in preventing and effectively managing conflicts cannot be overstressed. Most of the conflicts in Africa occurred due to deficiencies in ensuring accountable, transparent and inclusive governance systems, as well as inadequate efforts to address the challenges of poverty and inequality. It is clear that addressing poverty and deficits in governance will go a long way in reducing conflicts and strengthening peace and security of persons, communities and nations and contribute significantly to the socio- economic transformation of the continent envisaged under Agenda 2063.

3.2.5   An Africa with a strong cultural identity, common heritage, values and ethics

Threats to Africa’s Cultures, Heritage & Values •     Cultural domination during the slave trade and colonial era led to the depersonalization on the part of African peoples, falsified their history, systematically disparaged and combatted African values and tried to replace progressively and officially their languages by that of the colonized. Work done by great African scholars and writers have contributed a lot to re- examining and restoring Africa’s distorted and obscured place in the history of the world; •     Forces that are accelerating Africa’s integration into a western global culture – news media, music, art – with a key part being played by educational systems. While these can be sources that can enrich the African cultural heritage, they can also be a source of erosion and ultimately can supplant and replace African values and ethics; •     Heritage sites: despite her rich cultural heritage, Africa is poorly represented in the list of protected world cultural heritage sites. This risks to hasten the erosion of these sites and their eventual loss not only to African but the entire world; •     Languages: language is at the heart of a people’s culture and the acceleration of Africa’s socio-economic transformation is impossible without harnessing in a practical manner the indigenous African languages. A major threat to African culture and heritage is the educational system which is marginalizing African languages; and •     The poor management of Africa’s diversity – ethnic, religious, cultural – has often been a source of conflict, with considerable cost to the progress and harmony of the continent. Extreme expressions of this phenomenon is recently manifested in the rise of religious extremism has also fuelled much violence and social upheaval – Boko Haram in Northern Nigeria, the LRA in Uganda.

Agenda 2063 re-affirms Africa as a cradle of human civilization and African cultural identity, values and ethics as critical factors for Africa’s re-emergence on the global stage. It envisages that by 2063, the fruits of the values and ideals of Pan Africanism will be manifest everywhere. Culture will flourish, there would be a strong work ethic based on merit and traditional African values of family, community and social cohesion would be firmly entrenched.

Culture is a fundamental factor for defining and understanding the human condition. Culture affects how people think and act. It can be considered as the way humans and societies assign meaning to the world around them and define their place in that world. It is manifested in many ways including languages and words; ideas and ideologies; customs and traditions; beliefs and religions; rituals and ceremonies; settlement patterns; art and music; architecture and furniture; dress and fashion; games; images – in short, anything that is symbolic or representative of the values, norms, perceptions and interests of a people.

 

 

55 High Level Conferences and Retreats on Governance and Peace and Security

 

Culture plays a central role in the development process. The World Conference on Cultural Policies held in Mexico City in 1982 and the subsequent Declaration of the UN Decade of Culture (1988- 1997) contributed much to raising global awareness on the centrality of culture to the development process. Cultural activities can contribute to social and economic advancement by generating employment and creating valuable resources of commercial and economic value. Culture is also a tool for social cohesion.

The 2013 UN Creative Economy Report acknowledges “the importance of culture and cultural diversity for sustainable development” and argues that “investments in identity, innovation and creativity can help to build new development pathways…[which]…when nurtured [can] result in inclusive social development, inclusive economic development, environmental sustainability and peace and security”56.

The creative economy is a major contributor to economic growth and global trade. The 2013 Creative Economy Report reports that the world trade of creative goods and services totalled a record US$624 billion in 2011. Between 2002 and 2011 the global average annual growth rate of the creative economy was 8.8per cent.

The contribution of culture to Africa’s development is still well below its potential, although there are areas of progress. The creative industry is starting to be recognized in Africa today: e.g. Nigeria’s Nollywood is estimated to earn between US$200-300 million per year, is the second largest employer after agriculture and the second largest film industry in the world. African fashion designers are drawing on the continent’s rich cultural heritage and blending it with modern trends to acquire success at home and abroad. Because of this the fashion and apparel industry is proving to be a dynamic sector, particularly in small-scale enterprises. Similar trends are also evident in the leather, shoes, beads and other trendy African fashion. The rapid growth in music, TV and Film, fashion and lifestyle reflects a rising confidence in the African identity, especially among Africa’s young people.

African literature and art are of growing importance due to the rise of Africa’s middle class and new art markets are being established in Nairobi Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria. Estimates for internal African arts market are not easily available but have tremendous potential for growth in the coming decades. A growing phenomenon is in the growth of literature written so-called “Home” or “regional national” languages pioneered by early African writers.

Vehicular cross-border languages are powerful tools that can be used to foster the development and integration of Africa and facilitate the movement of people and goods. If fact, these languages do not respect the artificial colonial boundaries. In West Africa, for instance, a speaker of Mandinka can communicate and move freely throughout most of ECOWAS member states; a speaker of Fulfulde is free of any linguistic barriers from West to Central Africa. A Kiswahili speaker can move freely in Central and Eastern Africa. Taking all of this into account, the African Academy of Languages (ACALAN), which is the official language agency of the African Union, has been working in collaboration with the member states on the development of Vehicular Cross-Border Languages so that they are not only used in all domains of society in partnership with the former colonial languages, but also make a meaningful contribution to the implementation of Africa’s Agenda 2063.

African cultural diversity contributes to the expression of national and regional identities and more widely to the promotion of Pan Africanism and the building of inclusive societies.   The promotion of cultural values and practices are known for their capability and potential for peace making and conflict resolution.

 

56 Cited in “Concept Note: Africa Reimagination Creative Hub (ARCH). Developing the Identity, Heritage, Arts and Culture Chapter of Agenda 2063 (2014).

 

Culture has the power to transform societies, strengthen communities and foster a sense of identity and belonging. Of particular importance in this regard is the youth who can be a bridge between tradition and modernity. They have a tremendous thirst for information, are adept in using ICT, which allows them to transcend national boundaries, and thus can be potent agents for social change. However, work must be done to nurture a sense of pride and understanding of Africa’s rich heritage among the youth. Investing in the creative industry can open up vast possibilities for young people, while at the same time providing a conduit for transmitting African values, heritage and culture to young people. It will also build understanding, respect for cultural diversity and engender a culture of peace and progress on the continent.

Religion plays a central role in the cultural life of African societies and religious groups are a major component of the African society. This is evident in the popular view that Africa is a religious continent and its people, are religious as well in an era

AU Policy Instruments on Cultural Heritage •     The Campaign for African Cultural Renaissance. •     The Languages Plan of Action for Africa (1986) •     The African Union Plan of Action on Cultural and Creative Industries •     Revival of the Development of the Encyclopedia Africana

when this is not evident in many other societies. Religion

and religious expressions play a profound role in the construction of the African identity and social construct and interaction. However, Africa’s culture, heritage and values are under threat from several forces, including religious extremism.

Despite all the threats to Africa’s cultural heritage, the values of African people remain on a solid foundation both on the continent and in the diaspora. African renaissance and self-confidence is critical to the

continent’s progress. There is now a strong realization of the imperative of harnessing Africa’s cultural heritage for the continent’s socio-economic transformation, ending conflicts and promoting governance and democratization.

All African cultures recognize and reward the virtues associated with hard work, industry and thrift, as well as taking care of kith and kin, and the less fortunate. However, it is important to recognize that in many African societies, these positive virtues exist side by side with some harmful social practices. This is particularly evident in practices that limit or restrict the rights of women to inheritance, access to land and other productive resources, social practices such as female genital mutilation and early child marriages. Thus while African culture, heritage, values and ethics are a source of strength and cause for celebration, certain harmful social practices need to be done away with in the march towards the Africa we want by 2063.

3.2.6   An Africa whose development is people-driven, relying on the potential of African people, particularly its women and youth, and caring for children

Agenda 2063 envisages under this aspiration, a continent that has equal participation, opportunity and access for all segments of the continent’s population to development outcomes and social and political discourse regardless of gender, political affiliation, religion, ethnic affiliation, locality, age or other factors.

Gender equality and women’s empowerment

Africa has made significant advances in reducing gender inequalities:

 

• Political participation: with an average of 21per cent of parliamentarians as women, Africa is the only region to double women’s political participation in one decade – at 64per cent, Rwanda, is the country with the highest percentage of female parliamentarians in the
• Education: the number of girls out of school has dropped significant from 24 million in 2000 to 9 million in 2013. Furthermore, nearly half of the African countries have attained gender parity in primary school enrolment in 2012.

 

However, these gains have not yet fully impacted on reducing inequalities between men and women, especially with respect to access and control of economic resources, as well as in terms of labour market participation or reproductive rights (maternal mortality and fertility). Women still constitute the majority of those holding vulnerable jobs (i.e. poor wages and working conditions); ILO classified 84per cent of jobs held by women in 2012 as vulnerable as compared to 70.6per cent for men.

The progress made by the continent in terms of women’s representation in parliament is dampened by the fact that in many African countries women generally constitute a minority in some critical parliamentary committees tasked with drafting of bills which later become law.

Gender inequality is one of the most important structural root causes of Africa’s poor performance with respect to the MDGs and poverty reduction. Better access to education for women, especially post-secondary education contributes to improved household livelihoods and human development. In general African countries with low gender inequality have higher enrolment rates for women in higher education than countries with higher gender inequality. However, even then, the enrolment of women in science, technology, engineering and mathematics is low.

Overall, the subsidiary roles of women in society remain a key hindrance to development and socio-economic transformation. The continued monopoly of power by male political elites, a lack of political will, socio-economic challenges, the non-recognition of unpaid care and domestic work, as well as patriarchal traditions and beliefs continue to limit the formal and meaningful involvement of women in governance, peace and security and development processes. The continent cannot meet its ambitious goals under Agenda 2063 while it limits a dynamic segment of its society, which women represent, from realizing its full potential. Investing in women and girls and their integration into the labour market, alongside delayed marriage and child bearing and expanded access to education for girls, family planning and sexual and reproductive health rights, has been attributed as the driving forces behind the economic successes of the “Asian tigers”.

Continental Initiatives to Address Youth Issues •     The AU Second Decade of Education (2006 – 2015) •     The AU (2009 -2018) Ten year Plan for Youth development and empowerment •     The AU Youth Volunteer Corps Program •     Participation in decision-making (the African youth parliament, the Mano River Union youth Parliament, Youth Forums, representation at AU Summit, Conference of Ministers and Expert consultations

Further, there is a need to introduce mechanisms such as an African Gender Development Index or similar indices to ensure adequate monitoring and tracking of progress with respect to gender equality.

Youth engagement and empowerment

Africa has a very youthful population. In 2010 there were 364 million people on the continent aged 15–34 years and 209 million aged 15–24 years. These accounted for 35.6 per cent and 20.2 per cent of the total African population, respectively. Africa is therefore experiencing a youth bulge, defined as an “extraordinarily large youth cohort relative to the adult population”.

The youth of the continent however face many challenges:

 

• Education: inadequate access especially at the secondary and tertiary

 

• Employment: estimates put youth unemployment at under 5 per cent for Malawi and Rwanda, above 20 per cent in Ghana, Zambia and Zimbabwe and over 30 per cent in Mauritius, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland, Algeria and South Africa57.

 

 

 

57 Regional Overview: Youth in Africa, UN 2011

 

• Health: the youth are the group most affected by the three major diseases – HIV/AIDS, Malaria and Tuberculosis. Emerging challenges of alcoholism and illicit drugs have also led to the recorded cases of youth with mental disorders, disabilities and accidents amongst
• Poverty: poverty among youth is very high and it is estimated that 71per cent live below US$ 2 a day.
• Violence and Conflict: the youth bulge presents a myriad reasons for concern given indications of a strong correlation between countries prone to civil conflict and those with burgeoning youth populations.

Priority initiatives – An Africa Fit for Children •     An Africa free from child labor and trafficking. •     Healthy and well-nourished children in Africa •     Free, compulsory and child friendly education for all •     An Africa free from violence against children •     Children free from the impacts of armed conflicts •     Child participation becomes a reality •     An inclusive Africa •     Birth Registration for all children

Several regional and continental initiatives are in place to tackle youth issues and these could be expanded and improved. The “demographic dividend” – the result of an increase in size of the labour force and a decline in dependency ratios, could contribute to urban induced economic growth and increased national savings for development. Reaping the demographic dividend provides an opportunity for Africa to develop the skills of the youth in science, technology and innovation for global competitiveness.

Situation of children in Africa

Africa’s young, in particular her children are the foundation of Agenda 2063. Yet, despite the existence of legislations and policies adopted to protect children, the rights of thousands of children are being violated. In many parts of Africa, child rights face formidable obstacles:

• Recent studies show that globally, close to 250 million children are working in the world. More than 150 million of these children, including those in Africa, are working in dangerous These children are exploited in plantations, mines, or will become domestic workers;
• Every minute eight under-five children die in sub-Saharan Africa and every 30 seconds a child dies from malaria. Most African countries have under-five mortality rates above 100 per 1000 live Two thirds of the under-five deaths are due to preventable causes mainly pneumonia, malaria, diarrheal diseases, measles and HIV/AIDS, most of which are complicated by malnutrition. Furthermore, under-nutrition, according to WHO, is directly or indirectly responsible for 3.5 million child deaths every year;
• Sub-Saharan Africa has one of the highest prevalence of low birth weight ranging from 7-42per cent. Exclusive breastfeeding rate is low and complementary foods are inadequate and inappropriate;
• Lack of access to clean water and sanitation in Africa kills children at a rate equivalent to a jumbo jet crashing every four hours;
• Many children are still unable to access or benefit from education in a meaningful 33 million primary school-aged children in Sub-Saharan Africa do not go to school and 18 million of these children are girls;
• Children are subjected to many forms of violence often perpetrated by family members, teachers and the police;

 

• Children are seriously affected during armed conflicts. They are recruited, abducted, and sexually abused during conflict. Moreover, many children are victims of forced displacement arising from conflict;
• Many children are subjected to child marriage and female genital mutilation. Africa has the highest incidence of child marriage and the highest prevalence of child marriage is concentrated in Western and Sub-Saharan Africa. Recent studies show that one in three girls get married before the age of 18. Female genital mutilation has a high prevalence rate in 28 countries in Africa. Overall, the subsidiary roles of women in society remain a key hindrance to development and socio-economic transformation;
• About forty per cent of Africa’s population consists of people with disabilities, including 10- 15 per cent of school-age However, school enrolment for the disabled is estimated at no more than 5-10 per cent; and
• In many parts of Africa, children are denied of their right to participation and freedom of expression due to cultural norms.

Africa must urgently scale up investment in its young people, especially children, as the highest rate of return Africa can realize is through investing in the young generation.

3.2.7 Africa as a strong, united, resilient and influential global player and partner

Under this aspiration, Africa will emerge as a strong, resilient and influential global player and partner, with a bigger role in world affairs.

AU – AFRICA’s PLACE IN THE WORLD •     Continue the global struggle against all forms of racism and discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerances; •     Act in solidarity with oppressed countries and peoples; •     Advance international cooperation that promotes and defends Africa’s interests, is mutually beneficial and aligned to our Pan Africanist vision; •     Continue to speak with one voice and act collectively to promote our common interests and positions in the international arena; •     Reiterate our commitment to Africa’s active role in the globalization process and international forums including in Financial and Economic Institutions; and •     Advocate for our common position for reform of the United Nations (UN) and other global institutions with particular reference to the UN Security Council, in order to correct the historical injustice with Africa as the only region without a permanent seat.”

The Assembly of the Union at its 21st Ordinary Session 26-27 May 2013 stated the following on Africa’s place in the World: “Our endeavour is for Africa to take its rightful place in the political, security, economic, and social systems of global governance towards the realization of its Renaissance and establishing Africa as a leading continent”.

This section examines the situation of Africa today in the global context with respect to four key parameters, namely: global governance; global commons; partnerships; and development finance.

Global governance

Global governance matters a great deal for Africa as decisions made in global institutions and forums have a direct impact on the wellbeing of Africans and their continent. Yet Africa has to date

been a marginal player in the governance of global institutions. This is particularly so with respect to international peace and security, economics, environment, and trade issues, and in other areas.

• International peace and security: will remain for Africa a key priority for the foreseeable In particular, the decisions of the UNSC have direct consequences on peace and security on the continent. For example, more than half the resolutions passed by the UNSC in 2011 were directed at Africa. Yet the continent is not among the Permanent Members, and African members of the Council have no veto power. For Africa, the reform of the UNSC is therefore an urgent priority.

 

• Global economic governance: the Bretton Woods institutions have a huge impact on the economic affairs of nearly all African countries. Yet, despite some progress Africa’s representation in the governance of the Bretton Woods institutions, does not correspond to or reflect the continent’s
• Global trade negotiations: while the EU represents 27 European countries in world trade negotiation, the African Union is not a member of WTO. This weakens the collective voice of Africa in WTO negotiations, and this must be

There are many other areas where global governance reform is needed; overall, African countries continue to stress the fact that there is a serious mismatch between global challenges and the global governance systems that are in place to address them.

Global commons

AFRICAN SPACE INITIATIVES •     African resource Management (ARM) Satellite Constellation •     Regional African Satellite Communication Organization (RASCOM) •     African Reference Geodetic Network (AFREF) Program)

The global commons refers to the resource domains or areas that lie outside of the political reach of any one nation state and include the high seas, the atmosphere, Antarctica and outer space58. These are regarded as the common heritage of mankind and the advancement of science have made access to and exploitation of the resources of the global commons much easier. A critical area is outer space, which is of enormous economic, security and social importance to Africa.

The global economy is changing to a knowledge-based one and outer space is one of its critical areas. The market for space-based products is estimated at close to US$ 300 billion annually. Though Africa owns less than one per cent of satellites in orbit, the continent has one of the highest demands for space products and services. There are over 1000 operating satellites orbiting the earth; about 45 per cent are from USA and less than one per cent from Africa. Thus African space capability is seriously limited59.

Africa’s economy is increasingly becoming space-dependent. Space based products include: communication technology (voice and data/imageries); defences/military; economic – financial transactions (e-banking, etc); navigation by GNSS; and use of space-based technologies for disaster management and climate change; health.

However, space capacity in Africa is gradually improving. Some countries have set up key strategic institutions such as National Space Agencies to manage their space program. Emerging countries in this respect include: Algeria, Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Seychelles, Kenya, Ghana and Ethiopia. Many countries are also participating in a variety of space technology initiatives. There are also a number of organizations on the continent involved in space technologies and their terrestrial applications. This is contributing to building Africa’s capabilities in space exploration, constellation programs, earth observation systems, navigation and positioning, satellite communication and education.

Outer space presents an opportunity for AU Member States to cooperate and share the enabling infrastructure and data and collectively manage programmes of mutual interest such as disease outbreaks; natural resources and the environment; hazards and disasters; weather forecasting (meteorology); climate change mitigation and adaptation; marine and coastal areas, agriculture and food security; peacekeeping missions and conflict prevention and management.

 

 

58 UNEP

59 Mohammed. S (2012) The Cost of Instability of Space: Impacts on End-Users in Africa

 

Although space technologies offer unique opportunities for the continent to collectively address socio-economic development issues, they are often complex, cost intensive with a high financial risk. Moreover, geographical and/or population size are often decisive factors for effective and efficient implementation of some space applications. A common continental approach that, in a coordinated and systematic manner, allows for the sharing of the costs, expertise, and the enabling infrastructure (including data), reduction of risks and collective management of strategic programmes, is therefore important. In this regard, the AU policy organs, sectoral Ministerial Conferences and the Executive Council have called upon the Commission to develop a common space policy and strategy as a continental framework for promoting the African civilian space agenda for socio-economic development.

The Commission, through an AU Member States-based Working Group is currently finalising the draft space policy document and strategy that outlines ambitious high-level goals to mobilise the continent to develop the necessary institutions and capacities to harness space technologies for socio-economic benefits, in order to improve the quality of lives and create wealth for Africans.

The development of the requisite human capital to sustain Africa’s space program remains a critical gap. The Commission through the Pan African University, designated the southern African region to hub the institute of space to address this. The institute will capitalize on the achievements of the best universities on the continent and by creating regional knowledge satellites campuses around the space thematic area.

It is of urgent importance for African countries in the context of Agenda 2063 to build upon these on-going initiatives and strengthen their capability in space science and technologies for the continent’s transformation; Africa needs to develop its technological capabilities to exploit outer space and to defend its interests.

Partnerships

To promote the continent’s interests, the African Union has entered into a number of strategic partnerships such as: Africa-European Union partnership (or JAES – Joint Africa-EU Strategy), the Africa-South America partnership (ASACOF – Africa – South America Cooperation Forum), Africa-China partnership (FOCAC – Forum for China-Africa Cooperation), the Africa-Japan partnership (TICAD – Tokyo International Conference on Africa’s Development), the Africa-US partnership, Africa-Arab League of States partnership (Africa-Arab Forum); Africa – India partnership (AIFS – Africa-India Forum Summit), the Africa-Turkey partnership (Africa-Turkey Cooperation Summit), Africa-Korea partnership (Korea-Africa Forum).

Strategic partnerships are different from traditional development cooperation, which are premised on a donor-recipient relationship. Africa’s strategic partnerships are structured partnerships articulated, in a “win-win” and co-development approach, around addressing the challenges faced by the continent and realizing socio-economic development for Africa and its people. The transformational benefits are expected to be achieved via the implementation of industrialization and technology transfer, infrastructure development, trade and investment, social investment, and sustainable and inclusive growth policies, programs and projects of continental or regional dimension.

As a result of its increasing importance in economic and political terms, not only do Africa’s partners want to deepen their relationship with the AU, but also a number of prospective partners have requested to forge similar relationships with the AU.

The importance of Africa to its partners is evidenced through the following:

• Oil and gas supply security for strategic partners (see table below);
• Mining resources supply security for strategic partners;
• EPC contracts in the huge infrastructure market of Africa;
• Growing market for consumer and industrial products; and
• Attractive investment destination across many

 

 

 

Table : Importance of Africa to its Top Five Strategic Partners + Brazil60 Compared (2013 Figures rounded, USD billion unless otherwise expressed)

 

	EU	USA	JAPAN	CHINA	INDIA	BRAZIL
GENERAL
Population (nb. inhabitants)	505 million	317 million	127 million	1.388 billion	1.2 billion	202.5 million
GDP, nominal	17,371	16,800	5,000	9,725	1,870	2,242
Global FDI Stock	EUR 5.206 (2012)	2,800	1,000	531	92.4 (2010)	181 (2010)
Global ODA/Aid provided61	EUR 50.5	19	10.60 (2012)	7.1	1.2	1.2
TRADE
Imports from Africa	EUR 180	50	12-13	113.1	23 (2011)	15.43
Export to Africa	EUR 100	35	9 – 10	85.3	43 (2011)	12.22
Two-way Trade	EUR 162 (2001) to 280 (13)	29.4 (2000) to 85 (2013)	9 (2000) to 24 (2010)	10.6 (2000) to 198 (2012)	6 (2004) to 66 (2011)	4.9 (2000) to 27.6 (03)
Africa’s Share of P Oil Import	Oil (8%), Gas (21%)	18%	–	33%	20%	–
Africa’s Share of P Total Trade	2% – 4%	1% – 2%	1% – 2%	4% – 6%	6% – 8%	5% – 7%
P Share of Africa’s Total Trade	38.27% (2011)	11.46% (2011)	2% – 3%	16% – 18% (2011)	5.2% (2011)	5.32%
Asymmetric Trade Agreement	EBA	AGOA	–	Zero-tariff/LDCs	Zero-free/LDCs	–
INVESTMENT
Stock of P FDI in Africa	EUR 250 (2012)	61 (2012)	6 – 7	21.3	14	1 – 2
Africa’s Share of P Total FDI	4% – 5%	< 1%	< 1%	4% – 6%	15%	1% – 2%
ODA
ODA/Foreign Aid of P to Africa	EUR 18 (2012)	12 (2012)	2.3 (2010)	1.2 (2008)62	0.043	0.022 (2010)

 

ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS	–  ITF generated 80 grants that resulted in 6.5 billion in infrastructure investment in 2012 –  2012 remittances from EU: EUR 60 billion	–  In 2013, USD 6 billion of MCC investment for 20 countries –  Pr. Obama’s USD 8 billion Power Africa & Trade Africa initiatives announced in 2013	–  USD 500 facility for African SME sector administered by AfDB –  US 32 billion pledge of ODA + commercial finance under TICAD V –  Strong follow-up mechanisms	–  USD 40 billion EPC contracts in 2013 for Chinese firms –  US$2.385 billion in 61 projects in 30 Afr countries under CADF –  Oil & gas investments in 12 African countries	–  OGM investments in 15 African countries –  Strong offer for 78 TVET institutions & other excellence centers	South America strategic partnership with Africa not strong but Brazil bilateral cooperation strong in OGM and infrastructure.
IMPROVEMENT AREAS	More Industrialization and technology transfer partnership	Trade and investment outside oil sector. Other untapped opportunities	–  Trade and investment –  Technology transfer	–  Local content in China’s Africa operations –  Technology transfer –  JV in industry	–  Industrialization and SME development –  PPP institutions	– Industrialization, SME, agriculture and health

60 Brazil which is not a strategic partnership is included for comparison purpose only; however, South America which includes Brazil is a strategic partner

                                                61 Estimates for China, India and Brazil

62 Source: Brautigam (2011)

 

Despite the significance of the financial pledges of partners such as EU, Japan, China, and India, the overall implementation level of action plans agreed-upon is: low to nil (for Africa-South America, Africa-Arab League of States, Africa-Turkey); marginal in terms of significance (for Africa-Korea); largely under-target with good potential in technology transfer/TVET (for Africa-India), particularly good in infrastructure and resources sector investment but quite limited in technology transfer (for Africa-China); good in overall social infrastructure, agriculture and PSD and fair in economic infrastructures (for Africa-Japan); good in overall social infrastructure/MDGs, political governance and regional stability, private sector development and fair in economic infrastructures and industrialization (for Africa-EU); still marginal though bilateral cooperation is strong or potentially strong namely through AGOA, MCC, Power Africa (for Africa-USA).

As a result, the overall socio-economic and transformational impact of the activities implemented under Africa’s strategic partnerships is yet to be maximized.

The management of Africa’s strategic partnerships is constrained by number of challenges, including the following:

• Lack of a partnership policy and strategy framework, namely a strategy based on a specialization of individual partners on a limited number of activities with meaningful transformational benefits;
• AU-level technical capacity, procedural and knowledge gaps as well as financial resources challenges that limit the ability of the AU to contribute to the implementation of the agreed- upon action plans; and
• Weaknesses in the monitoring/follow-up, review, reporting and evaluation mechanisms of the quasi-totality of the strategic

Africa’s strategic partners have made a number of financial pledges and technical assistance- related support packages (in trade and investment, industrialization, regional integration, social and sustainable development and peace and security) to the AU, RECs and member countries that are yet to be fully leveraged.

 

Japan 2017 2013	China 2015 – 2013	India 2011-2014	EU 2014-2017/20
USD 32 billion	USD 20 billion USD 5 billion	USD 5.4 billion	EUR 30.5 billion (ACP-wide)

These financial pledges and technical assistance packages can be leveraged to support Agenda 2063 at four levels:

• Direct support to the domestic resource mobilization process;

 

• Provide catalytic finance;

 

• Direct finance to Agenda 2063 programs and projects; and

 

• Technical assistance and technology transfer support in a number of Agenda 2063 programs and projects.

In the context of Agenda 2063, Africa needs to phase out some of the rather low impact partnerships or re-orient them appropriately towards ensuring that they contribute to the implementation of Agenda 206 and to the continent’s transformation.

International cooperation and partnerships for development on both bilateral and global levels that are in line with national ownership, has a crucial role to play as enablers to support through

 

providing finance, technology transfer, capacity building to achieve Agenda 2063. In this regard as agreed in the Rio+20 Outcome Document, Africa’s strategic partnerships should include the obligation of developed country partners to contribute to the realization of the continent’s development through effective technology transfer.

Development finance

In 2012, Africa’s GDP stood at US$2 trillion with a population of over 1 billion. If Africa were one country these metrics would place the continent as the 8th economy in the world in terms of GDP and the 3rd most populous. In addition, African countries are wealthier than two decades ago, and 23 African countries are middle income ones according to the threshold of per capita greater than US$1000. Yet individually, African countries continue to rely on outside sources to finance their development.

Worse still, currently donors contribute 96 per cent of the programme funding for the African Union Commission, a situation that is unacceptable. Africa needs to look inwards to mobilize domestic resources to finance and accelerate its transformation, integration, peace, security, infrastructure, industrialization, and democratic governance and strengthen continental institutions.

The Changing landscape of development finance

 

Over the last decade, the landscape for development finance has changed dramatically, in terms of actors, motives and financing instruments. From predominantly, DAC-donors based development cooperation, the development finance arena has evolved into a multi-polar system with the following architecture of actors:

• Traditional development partners, their aid organizations and their export credit agencies which conform to DAC norms and rules, are governed by the “Washington Consensus” and include largely OECD countries;
• New and emerging partners, regrouping the wide array of South-South co-operation actors often referred to as “non-traditional” They include predominantly: BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); but also MINT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) and countries such as Malaysia;
• Arab countries and their multilateral organizations, led by oil revenue-rich GCC countries;

 

• Development finance institutions (DFIs) which operates along the lines of the “Washington Consensus” and the UN system;
• Private philanthropic organizations, including foundations and international NGOs;

 

• Private sector (banks and enterprises), which are motivated by commercial interests as opposed to other actors that can be considered as development finance actors;
• Diaspora remittances, which would also not be considered as development finance, but constitute in many cases important external resource flows, usually captured in the current account in the balance of payments

These major shifts in the international development finance landscape have created new opportunities and options; but also, new challenges for Africa – the AU, RECs and member states of the AU.

For the effective implementation of the African development agenda, it is critical for all parties to adequately mobilize resources needed from all funding mechanisms to strengthen the capacities of relevant institutions for the implementation of Agenda 2063.

 

The continuing challenge of Aid effectiveness

 

Despite the Paris Declaration, the Accra Agenda for Action and the Busan Partnership for Effective Development Cooperation, development cooperation continues to be driven by donor countries’ priorities and interest. Current forms of development cooperation therefore are not optimally delivering meaningful socio-economic transformational benefits for Africa, which continues to be financially dependent, food insecure with a weak industrial base and the lowest average HDI as a region.

The Post-2015 Development Agenda and the Third International Conference on Finance for Development (FfD3)

The Post-2015 Development Agenda and Financing Implications: With the conclusion of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the United Nations has initiated a process of defining a post-2015 development agenda. This agenda will be launched in September 2015 during the UN General Assembly Session.

The post 2015 development agenda is country-led with broad participation from major groups and civil society stakeholders. In particular, a High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons (HLP) was convened to advise on the post 2015 development agenda. Other related activities include the formulation of a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by an Open Working Group of the UN General Assembly, an intergovernmental committee of experts reviewing sustainable development financing, General Assembly dialogues on technology facilitation and other related initiatives. Africa has articulated its inputs to the post 2015 process through the formulation of a comprehensive Common African Position (CAP).

Third International Conference on Finance for Development (FfD3): The Third International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD3) is scheduled to take place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in July 2015. The FfD3 is expected to strengthen mutual commitments and mechanisms that will govern and determine financing and partnership framework for development over the next decades. The conference will assess progress made and identify the challenges to be addressed in relation to the commitments made and the targets set in the framework of its two predecessors frameworks: the 2002 Monterrey Consensus and the 2008 Doha Declaration. The anticipated review will cover external financing mechanisms for development (ODA, FDI, Portfolio Investment as well as the role and potential of Diaspora resource-based financing such as remittances) as well as domestic resource mobilization efforts of developing countries and related support from the international community (taxes, resource rents, illicit financial flows, domestic savings and capital market) and other enablers of development and development financing such as growth and trade performance, technology transfer, and capacity building,

The outcomes of both the Post-2015 Development Agenda and FfD3 will have important implications for Africa’s development financing needs, particularly, for the low-income countries (LIC) of the continent. Both the Post-2015 Agenda and FfD3 will also impact the implementation of the socio-economic transformation agenda of Africa and related continental, regional and national programs and projects. Agenda 2063 transformation needs and related financing and partnership requirements will therefore be at the centre of African countries’ negotiating positions in both the Post-2015 Development Agenda and FfD3.

Call for more focus on new forms of financing and domestic resource mobilization

 

Against this background, there is an emerging consensus that Agenda 2063 has to rely more on the mobilization of domestic resources. The AU has, with this objective in mind, has initiated a number of studies in this regard – bee box below.

 

Current Domestic Resource Mobilization at Continental Level
Initiatives	Key Highlights
OBASANJO-LED HLPASF (High-level Panel on Alternative Sources of Funding) proposal on alternative sources of stable funding for the AU (July 2012)	•      Report evaluates potential for resource mobilization through levies on private sector activities: insurance premiums (rate of 1per cent); international travel (US$2.5 for travel outside the Continent and US$1 for travel within the Continent); Tourism and hospitality (US$1 for each stay); v) Import levy (0.2per cent on goods imported from outside the continent); text messages (e.g. 5 cents per mobile phone text message) •      Impact study was conclusive •      Proposals have evolved from initial ones to two types of levies: US$2.00 hospitality levy per stay in a hotel; US$10.00 travel levy on flight tickets to and from Africa.
MBEKi-LED GROUP / UNECA “Illicit Financial Flows: Why Africa Needs to Track it, Stop it and Get it” “Background paper of the High-level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows, ECA, 2012”	•      Study reviews challenges posed by Illicit Financial Flow and proposes solutions around the (1) shared responsibility of source country and destination country and (2) global governance to stop, track and repatriate the funds involved.
III. NPCA/UNECA STUDY “ “Mobilizing Domestic Financial Resources for Implementing NEPAD National and Regional Programmes – Africa Looks Within” (January 2014)	•      Studies assesses the potential for DRM on: Illicit financial flow, remittances, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, banks, stock market •      Proposes the setting-up of 2 DRM-based institutions: (1) Africa Infrastructure Development Fund (AIDF) and (2) Africa Credit Guarantee •      Facility (ACGF) to support the implementation of NPCA programs
AfDB-LED AFRICA50 FUND, a private equity fund to support PIDA (2013)	•      An initiative of the AfDB aimed at setting-up a private equity fund of USD 50 to 100 billion through DRM targeting foreign reserves, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and other African institutional investors

Domestic resources of a country could range from domestic financial capital, to ‘human capital’, to ‘social capital’ to ‘natural resources’. However, in the context of Agenda 2063 financing, domestic resource mobilization (DRM) refers to the savings and investments generated by households, domestic firms (including financial institutions) and governments.

In contrast to mobilizing external resources (through FDI, aid, trade, and debt relief), DRM offers the advantages of greater domestic policy ownership and greater coherence with domestic needs, higher development impact. It does not suffer from the disadvantages associated with FDI and foreign aid, which are often tied to the objectives of foreign investors (e.g. exclusive focus on certain sectors, where profits will be maximized such as OGM and telecommunication to the detriment of the agriculture sector) and donors (e.g. sector and technology tied aid and conditional aid). But it also presents obvious challenges in many African countries, which makes attracting external resources seem like an easier option.

 

Hence, while DRM would not meet all financial requirements of the Agenda 2063, it has the potential to contribute, at 70per cent to 80per cent, to the financing of the Agenda 2063. The remaining needs of Agenda 2063 will be rightly financed through traditional mechanisms including the international financial market, FDI, official development assistance that needs also to be leveraged towards more adoption of African priorities.

Current DRM initiatives in Africa

 

Financing development continues to be a major challenge for the large majority of African governments, RECs and continental bodies such as the AU and its organs. As a result, the three levels of the continental governance system have initiated a number of DRM initiatives.

At the national level, an increasing number of countries have come to rely more on enhanced fiscal resource management through reallocation, expenditure control and a stronger revenue management authority to meet a larger portion of their development financing needs. This comes ahead of alternative development financing vehicles such as the local financial market, dominated by the banking sector and timid attempts to restructure the national contractual savings system (insurance and pension sector) towards a more robust management system. Domestic network of microfinance institutions (MFI) have also emerged in many African countries.

Regionally, a greater role has been given to regional development banks (AMU’s new Investment Bank; ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID); Development Bank of Central African States (BDEAC); East African Development Bank (EADB); Preferential Trade Area (PTA Bank) which are key regional institutions working along other regional financial institutions (such as BOAD, West African Development Bank, Africa Re, the continental reinsurance agency); and attempts to fill the financial market gap is being considered by RECs such as COMESA which has contributed to establishing the African Trade Insurance Corporation (ATI) and ECOWAS which has planned to set-up the ECOWAS Investment Guarantee  Agency.

At the continental level, the Africa 50 Fund, meant to contribute to the financing of infrastructure priority projects from domestic resources, is potentially a key milestone in development financing process of Africa. The AU-approved Africa Credit Guarantee Agency (ACGA) and African Investment Bank (AIB) are two major continental development financing vehicles that should enhance quite significantly the continental development finance architecture.

Yet, at national, regional and continental level; significant financing gaps still remain both in terms of products (private and public equity, risk management, growth capital and, more generally, long- term finance for SME and industrial projects) and markets and institutions (private equity fund, investment banks, asset management firms, stock exchanges, bond markets, derivatives market, and so on).

3.3         LESSONS FROM RESPONSES TO AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES AT NATIONAL, REGIONAL AND CONTINENTAL LEVELS

The preceding sections have shown that while Africa has made tremendous progress, the continent also faces significant challenges in the social, economic and political fields. African countries through their national, regional and continental plans have deployed significant efforts to respond to these challenges. Reviewing these plans and identifying the priorities therein is therefore important, because while Agenda 2063 is a long-term strategic framework for Africa’s socio-economic transformation, it must be grounded in the current and future realities of AU Member States and those of regional and continental organizations.

This section briefly highlights the main priorities, gaps and key lessons gleaned from reviewing some 33 national plans, several regional frameworks and continental ones, and which served to inform the formulation of Agenda 2063.

 

Priorities at national, regional and continental levels

Priorities at national level

Examples of some long-term visions as well as medium term plans extending from 3-5 years are presented in the box below.

 

COUNTRY	TIME FRAME	VISION STATEMENT
Kenya	Vision 2030	Globally competitive and prosperous Kenya with a high quality of life.
Uganda	Vision 2035	Transform Ugandan society from peasant to a modern prosperous country.
Tanzania	Vision 2025	High quality of life anchored on peace, stability, unity, and good governance, rule of law, resilient economy and competitiveness.
Rwanda	Vision 2020	Become a middle income country by 2020
Burundi	Vision 2025	Sustainable peace and stability and Achievement  of global development commitments in line with MDGS.

From the national medium-term plans reviewed, the following focus areas appeared most frequently:

• Inclusive economic/wealth creation;
• Human capital development;
• Employment;
• Governance/public sector reform; and
• Gender, women and youth/social

Focus Area/Goal Frequency Inclusive economic growth / wealth creation 27/27 Human Capital Development 26/27 Employment 25/27 Social Protection / Gender Women and Youth 22/27 Governance/Public Sector Reforms/Capacity 26/27 Environment/Sustainable Development 19/27 Infrastructure 18/27 Science Technology and Innovation 10/27 Peace and Security 5/17 Culture, Sports and the Arts 2/17

On the other hand issues related to:

science, technology and innovation; culture, sports and arts; and peace and security were less frequently included in national plans of the Member States reviewed.

Regional level priorities

At the regional level, the Minimum Integration Programme (MIP) arising from the Abuja Treaty, which called for the establishment of the African Economic

Community and the Sirte Declaration of 1999, provides a common denominator for the core work of all the RECs, albeit allowing for different paces of development. Within the eight integration priority sectors of the MIP of: free movement of persons, goods, services and capital; peace and security; energy and infrastructure; agriculture; trade; industry; investment and statistics, the RECs have developed strategic plans that reflect the member states collective development priorities to be handled at the regional level. A review of the regional plans63 indicates that the RECs are pursuing all the goals under the MIP but with varying emphasis reflecting regional specificities.

 

 

63 Review of Regional Plans, (Draft), Agenda 2063 Technical Unit, SPPMERM Department, The African Union Commission May 2063

 

Beyond the MIPs, some RECs are pursuing other priorities in areas such as: political integration, economic and monetary integration, capacity development, harmonization of policies in delivery of basic social services- health, education and social protection and inter-connectivity of electricity.

Below are the examples of vision statements of some of the Regional Economic Communities.

 

RECs	VISION STATEMENT
COMESA	To have a fully integrated internationally competitive regional economic community within which there is economic prosperity and peace as evidenced by political and social stability and high standards of living for its people.
CEN-SAD	Collective security and sustainable development; preserve and consolidate peace, security and stability.
EAC	The Vision of EAC is to attain a prosperous, competitive, secure and politically united East Africa.
ECCAS	A peaceful area, with prosperity and solidarity; an economic and politically united space with inclusive development and free-movement of people
ECOWAS	To create a borderless, peaceful, prosperous and cohesive region, built on good governance and where people have the capacity to access and hardness its enormous resources through the creation of opportunities for sustainable development and environmental preservation
IGAD	The promotion of joint development strategies; the gradual harmonization of macroeconomic policies in the social, technological, and scientific fields; and the harmonization of policies on trade, customs, transport, communications, agriculture, and natural resources.
SADC	A regional community in which the people of Southern Africa can realize economic well-being, improved living standards and quality of life, freedom and social justice, and peace and security.

Continental level priorities

The AU Constitutive Act, which identifies 12 priority areas, form the basis for the development of continental frameworks such as the PIDA, CAADP, the African Mining Vision, the African Governance Architecture and the African Water Vision amongst others. A review of these frameworks64 identifies the following priority areas at the continental level:

• Agriculture: food security and rural development;

 

• Human capital development: health, nutrition, science, technology and innovation – driven education;
• Social development: social protection, access/participation/advancement of women, youth, the marginalized and the vulnerable to economic, social and governance opportunities;
• Industrialization and manufacturing: industrial policy framework/mechanisms; value additions to agriculture; increased control of natural resources; employment generating manufacturing; linkages of firms to regional / global value chains; increased intra-African trade; science, technology and innovation driven industrialization;

 

 

64 Review of Continental Frameworks, (Draft), Agenda 2063 Technical Unit, SPPMERM Department, The African Union Commission May 2063

 

• Integration: free movement of people, goods, services and capital; a common monetary union; infrastructural interconnectivity- (road, rail, marine, air, voice, electronic);
• Governance: political governance, capable nations, democracy, human rights, constitutionalism and the rule of law/justice and humanitarian affairs; and
• Peace and security: standby force; alternative mechanisms for conflict

 

Conclusions and lessons for Agenda 2063

From the review undertaken, a number of conclusions and lessons emerge.

 

1. At national level, there is strong convergence on some of the key priorities that are addressed by plans of member states. The priorities reflected in most Member States plans include: inclusive economic growth/wealth creation; human capital development; employment; governance/public sector reform; and Gender, women and youth/social
2. However, there are areas unique to some Member States, reflecting their national circumstances and For example, member states coming out of civil wars / national strife, tend to place greater emphasis on peace and stability and post conflict reconstruction; island countries focus on issues related to the blue economy; while landlocked countries pursue issues related to regional integration in transport infrastructure.
3. At regional level, while RECs are seen as the implementing arms of the AU frameworks, the priority areas for RECs do not always correspond with those of the AUC strategic
4. Finally, vision statements at both national and regional levels provide a strong evidence of the level of ambition of African countries, and clearly show a determination to reach the same level of development as countries in other regions of the world. In effect these visions substantially validate and reflect the African aspirations for 2063 outlined in chapter

Agenda 2063 must therefore take as its point of departure current priorities reflected in national plans, and the regional and continental frameworks, and take into account the desired destination reflected in the country and regional vision statements.

3.4         OVERALL CONCLUSION AND ISSUES FOR AGENDA 2063

• General conclusion

As the analysis above demonstrates, there has been a remarkable turn-around in Africa’s fortunes over the last decade and half. This change in fortunes is also reflected in the way the continent is now perceived. For example, in a 2000 edition, the Economist Magazine described Africa as the “Hopeless Continent”. A decade later in 2011, the same magazine labelled Africa as “Rising Continent” and in March 2013, described Africa as “Hopeful Continent”.

Policy makers and ordinary African citizens should not be taken in by such facile analysis of the situation on the continent and be lulled into a false sense of complacency. Nonetheless, they reflect the changed perceptions of the continent, the road Africa has travelled and the opportunities the continent now has to break with its past poor record in many areas, and set a new trajectory of growth, prosperity and peace for her citizens.

Africa today is at the cusp of a significant transition and actions taken now, individually and collectively will determine the fate of future generations.

• Today the African Union is better organized institutionally and making significant strides for peace and security on the continent.

 

• Democracy and good governance is consolidating, notwithstanding occasional reversals and challenges of managing elections; most people on the continent live in countries, which are better governed than two decades
• Respect for human rights and other fundamental freedoms such as freedom of expression and association have improved.
• Major gains have been made in terms of sustainable economic development, gender equality, health and education. Collective response to HIV and AIDS has produced good results in terms of treatment and care as well better management of the
• The vision of an integrated and prosperous Africa anchored on the RECS and NEPAD
• Africa’s economic performance has improved considerably and growth is

 

• Africa has greater prospects for economic transformation with the discovery of immense mineral, gas and petroleum resources, and the unleashing of the potential of its

While these achievements should be a source of hope, Africa still needs to make radical policy commitments and be cognizant of the daunting challenges that remain, and which could impact on the realization of Agenda 2063 aspirations.

Alongside these challenges are also tremendous opportunities.

 

Based on the analysis undertaken in the preceding sections of the chapter, Annex 1 summaries the main action areas required for achieving Agenda 2063 aspirations. These have been used to inform Agenda 2063 goals, priority areas and targets presented in the following Chapter 4.