CHAPTER 5: CRITICAL FACTORS FOR SUCCESS, POTENTIAL RISKS AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES

Course Content
INTRODUCTION
Excerpt from the Online Course: Understanding the African Union Agenda 2063 Framework Welcome to the Course Welcome to "Understanding the African Union Agenda 2063 Framework"! This course is designed to provide you with a comprehensive understanding of Africa’s strategic framework for socio-economic transformation over the next few decades. Whether you are a student, policymaker, development professional, or simply interested in Africa’s future, this course will equip you with the knowledge and tools to engage with and contribute to the Agenda 2063 vision. Module 1: Introduction to Agenda 2063 Learning Objectives: Understand the vision and aspirations of Agenda 2063. Familiarize with the background and inception of the Agenda. Identify the key themes and goals of the framework. Overview: Agenda 2063 is Africa’s blueprint for transforming the continent into a global powerhouse of the future. It aims to achieve inclusive and sustainable development, build on the foundations laid by previous initiatives, and respond to emerging challenges and opportunities. Video Lecture: In this module, we will explore the origins and objectives of Agenda 2063. Watch the introductory video where Dr. Amina Ahmed, a leading expert in African development, discusses the genesis and vision of this ambitious framework. Reading Material: Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want Supplementary Article: "Historical Context and Need for Agenda 2063" Interactive Activity: Reflect on the key goals of Agenda 2063 and discuss in the forum how these goals align with the development priorities of your country or region. Module 2: The Seven Aspirations of Agenda 2063 Learning Objectives: Learn about the seven key aspirations driving the Agenda. Understand the significance of each aspiration. Overview: The seven aspirations of Agenda 2063 represent the collective vision and commitment of African nations to achieve a prosperous, integrated, and peaceful continent. These aspirations guide the goals and strategies outlined in the framework. Video Lecture: Join us in a deep dive into each of the seven aspirations. In this video, Professor John Kofi, an esteemed African historian, elucidates how these aspirations reflect the continent’s priorities and values. Infographic: Download the "Seven Aspirations of Agenda 2063" infographic to get a visual summary of the key points. Discussion Prompt: How do you see the aspiration of "A prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development" playing out in your community? Share examples or initiatives that align with this aspiration. Module 3: Flagship Projects of Agenda 2063 Learning Objectives: Gain insight into the flagship projects designed to drive Agenda 2063. Learn about the impact and progress of key projects. Overview: Agenda 2063 includes several flagship projects intended to accelerate development and ensure tangible benefits for African citizens. These projects address infrastructure, education, energy, and technology, among other areas. Case Study Video: Watch the case study video on the "Integrated High Speed Train Network" project. This project aims to enhance connectivity and trade across African countries, facilitating economic growth and regional integration. Assignment: Analyze the potential impact of the Single African Air-Transport Market (SAATM) on regional trade and tourism. Submit a 500-word essay detailing your findings. By the end of this course, you will have a robust understanding of the African Union Agenda 2063 Framework, its aspirations, goals, flagship projects, and the strategies for its implementation. Engage with the materials, participate in discussions, and apply your learning to contribute to the continent’s development journey. We are excited to embark on this educational journey with you and look forward to your active participation.
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Introductory Note
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Agenda 2063 is the fruit of an immense collaborative effort to reflect on the “Africa We Want by 2063”. Ideas and inputs have therefore been received from Africans of all walks of life, and through a variety of forums and mechanisms, including from the general African citizenry and the Diaspora. Consequently, it is difficult, if not impossible, to acknowledge all the diverse inputs and contributions. The African Union Commission from the onset therefore expresses its gratitude and sincere thanks to all those who contributed to the preparation of Agenda 2063. However, there are organizations and individuals whose role deserves recognition and special mention. The Commission expresses its deep gratitude to the Assembly of the Union, the Executive Council, the Bahir Dar Ministerial Committee on Agenda 2063, as well the Permanent Representatives Committee (PRC) of the AU, for their outstanding leadership in steering the development and final adoption of Agenda 2063. The Commission further gratefully acknowledges the pivotal role of AU Member States, who through written submissions, as well as through participation of their experts in diverse forums, have contributed significantly to the preparation and adoption of Agenda 2063. The Government of the Federal Republic of Ethiopia hosted the first Ministerial Retreat of the Executive Council, 24-26 January 2014 at Bahir Dar, which laid the basis of, and contributed greatly to the development of Agenda 2063. The Commission notes with particular pleasure and gratitude the enthusiasm with which the Forum of Former African Heads of State and Government embraced Agenda 2063 and the richness of their inputs into the process, and wishes to take this opportunity to thank them and the Secretariat of the Forum. Leading African policy makers, including Ministers and national experts also took part in various Ministerial conferences that discussed Agenda 2063. Similarly, many senior African experts participated in continent-wide stakeholder consultations, including from the private sector, academics/think tanks, civil society, planners, women, youth, media, the Diaspora, faith-based groups and others. Their inputs were critical and helped lay the foundations of the Agenda 2063 Framework document. The Executives of the NEPAD Planning and Coordination Agency (NPCA), UNECA and AfDB - Dr. Ibrahim Mayaki, Dr. Carlos Lopez and Dr. Donald Kaberuka - played an outstanding role, sharpened the debate and contributed immensely to shaping Agenda 2063. The Commission sincerely thanks them for their dedication and commitment to this and other continental causes. The Regional Economic Communities are at the forefront of the implementation of Agenda 2063. Fittingly, they also played a key role in its formulation. The Commission takes this opportunity to express its sincere thanks to the Chief Executives of the RECs and their staff for their contributions, and for hosting the Commission’s teams during visits to their respective institutions. In any endeavor, it is important to have a locomotive to drive the process and lead it to a successful conclusion. The Commission gratefully acknowledges the key role played by all the AU Commissioners in this regard. At the political level, the Commissioner for Economic Affairs Dr. Anthony Maruping, on behalf of the Chairperson of the Commission, led the process. At the technical level, our late brother Mr. Mandla Mandonsela, who as Director of Strategic Planning, Policy, Monitoring, Evaluation, and Resource Mobilization (SPPMERM) ably led the Agenda 2063 team; setting the overall strategic direction, overseeing the technical work and managing the necessary partnerships. The Commission takes this opportunity to pay a special tribute to the late Mr. Madonsela for his outstanding leadership, dedication and commitment to the African cause. Ambassadors Febe Potgieter-Gqubule, Basso Sangqu and Lazarous Kapambwe, respectively Deputy Chief of Staff, Chief Advisor and Advisor in the Bureau of the Chairperson similarly made many valuable contributions, which the Commission gratefully acknowledges. The Commission takes this opportunity to express special thanks to the Agenda 2063 Technical team comprised of Dr. Amadou Tijan Jallow, Mr. Yaw Adu-Boahene, Mr. Mersie Ejigu, Mr. Oumar Seck, Mr. Retselisitsoe Mabote and Mr. Kassim M. Khamis for their outstanding contributions. This core team spent many months synthesizing the inputs received from all stakeholders, undertaking the background research and drafting/finalizing the Agenda 2063 documents, namely: Agenda 2063 Framework Document, the Popular Version and the First Ten Year Implementation Plan. Their dedication and commitment has been exemplary. Ms. Christiane Matondo as part of the team also played a key role in the communication and outreach activities on Agenda 2063. Sincere thanks also go to all staff of the Strategic Planning Directorate, in particular, Mr. Christopher Kachiza, Mr. Abdelkreem Ezaldin and Mr. Charles Wangadya, as well as the departmental planners and support staff of SPPMERM for facilitating the stakeholder consultations and contributing in many other ways. Sincere thanks also to all AUC Heads of Departments/Directorates and other Commission staff who in various contributed to Agenda 2063. Sincere thanks also go to staff of the three core AUC partner institutions; members of the Agenda 2063 Technical Committee – the NEPAD Planning and Coordination Agency (Mr. Gengezi Mgidlana); UN Economic Commission for Africa (Adeyemi Dipeolu, Emebet Mesfin, Francis Ikome, Hopestone Chavula and Mama Keita); African Development Bank (Steve Kayizzi-Mugerwa, Chioma Onukogu and other staff); as well as the Joint Secretariat (AUC/AfDB/UNECA). The Commission acknowledges with gratitude, the following additional contributions from these institutions: African Development Bank for the financial and technical resources provided and UNECA for the short-term consultants put at the disposal of the Commission. Finally, the Commission would like to express its appreciation to AU partners in general, especially those involved in the Joint Programme Arrangement (JPA) for Institutional Capacity Building. The Commission takes the opportunity to also sincerely thank the Government of Denmark in particular, as well as the Government of Sweden for their generous support to the work on the preparation of Agenda 2063.
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Collaborative efforts
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fifty years after the first thirty-three (33) independent African states gathered in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to form the Organization of African Union, now the African Union, the continent is looking ahead towards the next fifty years. On the occasion of the Golden Jubilee of the OAU in May 2013, Africa’s political leadership acknowledged past achievements and challenges and rededicated itself to the Pan African vision of “an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the international arena.” The AU Summit tasked the African Union Commission (AUC), supported by the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) Planning and Coordinating Agency (NPCA), the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), to prepare a 50-year continental agenda through a people-driven process. Agenda 2063 was developed through an extensive consultative process involving various African stakeholders, including the youth, women, Civil Society Organizations, the Diaspora, African Think Tanks and Research Institutions, Government planners, Private Sector, the African media, inter-faith leaders, the Forum for Former African Heads of State and Government, African Islands States and others. In addition, ideas captured from continent wide sector ministerial meetings and meetings with the Regional Economic Communities are included. Outcomes of these consultations form the basis for the Aspirations of the African People, the driver of Agenda 2063. Preparation of Agenda 2063 also included an extensive review of African development experiences, analysis of challenges and opportunities of today, as well as a review of national plans, regional and continental frameworks and technical studies, including drawing upon publications and research materials from many institutions and organizations. The plans and the frameworks reviewed contributed insights for the development of the priorities that form a plank for Agenda 2063, in particular the First 10 Year Implementation Plan. Furthermore, a resource mobilization strategy for Agenda 2063 has been developed looking at strategies for Africa to finance her own development. Lastly, an Agenda 2063 communication strategy has been designed and it is now being implemented with the goal of engaging Africans from all works of life, and the Diaspora to galvanize action in support of Agenda 2063. Agenda 2063, Africa’s endogenous plan for structural transformation and a shared strategic framework for inclusive growth and sustainable development, consists of three dimensions as follows: 1. The Vision for 2063: based on the African Union Vision and the seven aspirations emanating from the voices of the stakeholders consulted, it paints a vivid picture of where Africans would like to see their continent 50 years from now, when Africa would be celebrating the centenary of the founding of the OAU. The vision incorporates milestones, which represent transitions in the journey towards the “Africa we Want” by 2063. 2. The Transformation Framework: presents the foundations on which Agenda 2063 is built, as well as the detailed milestones in the journey in the form of goals, priority areas, targets and indicative strategies. The framework is presented in two comprehensive results matrices; at national and at regional and continental levels. This will facilitate measurement of progress and strengthen accountability for results at all levels. The transformation framework represents the “what must be done” to attain the vision for 2063. 3. Making it Happen: outlines the “how to get there” of Agenda 2063, and treats aspects related to: implementation, monitoring and evaluation principles and responsibilities; financing; partnerships; capacities for implementation; and communication and outreach. The three dimensions described above are presented in the six chapters of the Agenda 2063 Framework document, whose contents are summarized below
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Executive Summary
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CHAPTER 1-4
CHAPTER1: Introduction Chapter 1 outlines the genesis of Agenda 2063 anchoring it on the AU Vision, and the eight ideals of the Solemn Declaration of the Golden Jubilee of the founding of the OAU. It situates Agenda 2063 in the historical context of Pan Africanism, as well as the various transitions marking the responses of African countries to the exegeses of the times. The chapter shows that Agenda 2063 builds upon past and present continental initiatives such as the Monrovia Declaration, the Lagos Plan of Action, the Abuja Treaty and NEPAD, as well as on Africa’s recent positive performance in the economic, social and political fields to put the continent on a new positive trajectory of growth, peace and prosperity. The Agenda draws upon the continent’s rich history, natural resources, people, culture, as well as its institutions at all levels, and capitalizes on the opportunities of changing African and global trends and dynamics. CHAPTER 2: The Vision and African Aspirations for 2063 This chapter presents the Vision for 2063. Africans of diverse social formations1 and in the Diaspora affirmed the AU Vision of “an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the international arena” as the overarching guide for the future of the African continent. Further, they reaffirmed the relevance and validity of the OAU/AU 50th Anniversary Solemn Declaration. The converging voices of Africans of different backgrounds, including those in the Diaspora have painted a clear picture of what they desire for themselves and the continent in the future. From these converging voices, a common and a shared set of aspirations has emerged: 1. A prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development; 2. An integrated continent, politically united, based on the ideals of Pan Africanism and the vision of Africa’s Renaissance; 3. An Africa of good governance, respect for human rights, justice and the rule of law; 4. A peaceful and secure Africa; 5. An Africa with a strong cultural identity, common heritage, values and ethics; 6. An Africa whose development is people-driven, relying on the potential of African people, especially its women and youth, and caring for children; and 7. Africa as a strong, united, resilient and influential global player and partner. These seven aspirations show strong convergence with the AU Vision, and are in line with the eight priorities of the OAU/AU 50th Anniversary Solemn Declaration. Collectively these shared aspirations demonstrate strong continuity of thinking between the OAU founders and the present generation of Africans, albeit in a new dynamic global context. The chapter details what achieving each of the seven aspirations would mean for Africa and her citizenry. For example, the attainment of Aspiration 1 (A prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development) would mean that: • African people will have a high standard of living and quality of life and well-being; • Well educated citizens and skills revolution underpinned by science, technology and innovation for a knowledge society will be broad-based, and no child misses school due to poverty or any form of discrimination; • Citizens are healthy, well-nourished and have long life spans; • Cities, peri-urban and rural communities are equipped with modern communication, sanitation, education and health facilities and are vibrant, dynamic market economies, people have access to affordable and decent housing including, housing finance together with all the basic necessities of life, and social capital is valued and preserved; 1 Different consultations were made with the following stakeholders: Academicians and Think Tanks, Civil Society, Planning Experts from Ministries of Planning, Women, Youth, Media, Private sector, RECs representatives, Forum for Former African Heads of State and Government and others. • Economies are structurally transformed through industrialization, manufacturing and value addition to create shared growth through private sector development, entrepreneurship and decent jobs for all; • Modern agriculture for scaled-up production, improved productivity and value addition through commodity transformation and services, contribute to farmer and national prosperity and food and nutrition security; and • The continent embeds principally adaptation processes to maintain healthy ecosystems, preserve the African natural environment – as the largest remaining reserve of pristine waters, old growth forests and land in the world. The chapter concludes by indicating that at current rates of performance (i.e. a “business as usual” scenario), the continent would neither catch up nor be able to meet the rising expectations of her citizens, especially the youth and women as: • Only a tiny number of countries, which had consistently high growth for the last two decades, will converge with the rest of the world, while the majority of the other countries do not converge, and the fragile countries stay fragile. • Per capita incomes continue to rise at 1.9 per cent annually but given growth in the rest of the world, however, Africa’s per capita incomes would actually diverge further from those of the rest of the world. • The middle-class would increase but after decades would still be only a third of the population. Nearly one in five Africans would, correspondingly, still be mired in poverty. • Finally, given growth elsewhere in the world, Africa’s share of global GDP would stagnate at a low level. Such a scenario, or at worst one of stagnation does not correspond with the aspirations of Africans for their future and is certainly unacceptable. CHAPTER 3: Africa the last Fifty Years and the Present: Progress, Challenges and Implications for Agenda 2063 This chapter takes each aspiration as a point of departure, and presents a comprehensive analysis of progress made and identifies some of the key issues and challenges to be addressed if the vision outlined in chapter 2 is to be attained. While recognizing the tremendous progress the continent has made in all areas, the following summarizes some of the main priorities for action (see annex 1 for a more elaborate summary): • Aspiration 1 (A prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development): ending poverty, inequalities of income and opportunity; job creation; addressing the challenges of rapid urbanization, improvement of habitats and access to basic necessities of life; providing social security and protection; developing Africa’s human and social capital (through an education and skills revolution emphasizing science and technology and expanding access to quality health care services, particularly for women and girls); transforming Africa’s economies through beneficiation from Africa’s natural resources, manufacturing, industrialization and value addition, as well as raising productivity and competitiveness; radically transforming African agriculture to enable the continent to feed itself and be a major player as a net food exporter; exploiting the vast potential of Africa’s blue/ocean economy; and finally putting in place measures to sustainably manage the continent’s rich biodiversity, forests, land and waters and using mainly adaptive measures to address Climate change risks. • Aspiration 2 (An integrated continent, politically united, based on the ideals of Pan Africanism and the vision of Africa’s Renaissance): accelerating progress towards continental unity and integration for sustained growth, trade, exchanges of goods, services, free movement of people and capital through: (i) establishing a United Africa; (ii) fast tracking of the CFTA; (iii) improving connectivity through newer and bolder initiatives to link the continent by rail, road, sea and air; and (iv) developing regional and continental power pools, as well as ICT. • Aspiration 3 (An Africa of good governance, respect for human rights, justice and the rule of law): consolidating democratic gains and improving the quality of governance, respect for human rights and the rule of law; building strong institutions for a development state; and facilitating the emergence of development-oriented and visionary leadership in all spheres and at all levels. • Aspiration 4 (A peaceful and secure Africa): strengthening governance, accountability and transparency as a foundation for a peaceful Africa; strengthening mechanisms for securing peace and reconciliation at all levels, as well as addressing emerging threats to Africa’s peace and security; and putting in place strategies for the continent to finance her security needs. • Aspiration 5 (An Africa with a strong cultural identity, common heritage, values and ethics): inculcating the spirit of Pan Africanism; tapping Africa’s rich heritage and culture to ensure that the creative arts are major contributors to Africa’s growth and transformation; and restoring and preserving Africa’s cultural heritage. • Aspiration 6 (An Africa whose development is people-driven, relying on the potential of African people, especially its women and youth, and caring for children): strengthening the role of Africa’s women through ensuring gender equality and parity in all spheres of life (political, economic and social); eliminating all forms of discrimination and violence against women and girls; creating opportunities for Africa’s youth for self-realization, access to health, education and jobs; and ensuring safety and security for Africa’s children, and providing for early childhood development. • Aspiration 7 (Africa as a strong, united, resilient and influential global player and partner): improving Africa’s place in the global governance system (UNSC, financial institutions, global commons such as outer space); improving Africa’s partnerships and refocusing them more strategically to respond to African priorities for growth and transformation; and ensuring that the continent has the right strategies to finance its own development and reducing aid dependency. CHAPTER 4: Agenda 2063: Goals, Priority Areas, Targets and Indicative Strategies Chapter 4 presents the transformation framework, including the foundation of Agenda 2063, the conceptual approach, and importantly the goals, priority areas, targets and indicative strategies. These are presented in detail in Annexes 3 and 4. Below is a schematic presentation of the foundation of Agenda 2063, the aspirations, as well as the goals. The Table below presents the Aspirations and the related goals and priority areas at national level. Aspirations Goals Priority Areas A prosperous Africa, based on inclusive growth and sustainable development A high standard of living, quality of life and wellbeing for all citizens • Incomes, jobs and decent work • Poverty, inequality and hunger • Social security and protection, including persons with disabilities • Modern, affordable and liveable habitats and quality basic services Well educated citizens and skills revolution underpinned by science, technology and innovation • Education and science, technology and innovation (STI) driven skills revolution Healthy and well-nourished citizens • Health and nutrition Transformed economies • Sustainable and inclusive economic growth • STI driven manufacturing, industrialization and value addition • Economic diversification and resilience • Tourism/Hospitality Modern agriculture for increased productivity and production • Agricultural productivity and production Blue/ocean economy for accelerated economic growth • Marine resources and energy • Port operations and marine transport Environmentally sustainable and climate resilient economies and communities • Sustainable natural resource management • Biodiversity conservation, genetic resources and ecosystems • Sustainable consumption and production patterns • Water security • Climate resilience and natural disasters preparedness and prevention • Renewable energy An integrated continent, politically united, based on the ideals of Pan Africanism and the vision of Africa’s Renaissance A United Africa (Federal or Confederate) • Frameworks and institutions for a United Africa Continental financial and monetary institutions established and functional • Financial and monetary institutions World class infrastructure criss - crosses Africa • Communications and infrastructure connectivity. Aspirations Goals Priority Areas An Africa of good governance, democracy, respect for human rights, justice and the rule of law Democratic values, practices, universal principles of human rights, justice and the rule of law entrenched • Democracy and good governance • Human rights, justice and the rule of law Capable institutions and transformative leadership in place • Institutions and leadership • Participatory development and local governance A peaceful and secure Africa Peace, security and stability is preserved • Maintenance and preservation of peace and security A stable and peaceful Africa • Institutional structure for AU instruments on peace and security • Defence, security and peace A fully functional and operational APSA • Fully operational and functional APSA pillars Africa with a strong cultural identity, common heritage, values and ethics African cultural renaissance is pre- eminent • Values and ideals of Pan Africanism • Cultural values and African Renaissance • Cultural heritage, creative arts and businesses An Africa whose development is people-driven, relying on the potential offered by African people, especially its women and youth, and caring for children Full gender equality in all spheres of life • Women and girls empowerment • Violence and discrimination against women and girls Engaged and empowered youth and children • Youth empowerment and children’s rights An Africa as a strong, united and influential global player and partner Africa as a major partner in global affairs and peaceful co-existence • Africa’s place in global affairs • Partnerships Africa takes full responsibility for financing her development • African capital markets • Fiscal systems and public sector revenue • Development assistance The transformation framework recognizes the diversity of the continent. Each country while being inspired by the same set of goals and targets will develop policies and strategies adapted to its circumstances. Agenda 2063 also emphasizes the need to build on existing frameworks and of integrating the Flagship programs in the First 10-Year Implementation Plan, namely: i) The Integrated High speed Train Network; ii) African Virtual and e-university; iii) African Commodity Strategy; iv) Annual African Forum; v) Continental Free Trade Area; vi) A Single African Airspace; vii) African Passport and Free Movement of People; viii) Continental Financial Institutions; ix) The Grand Inga Dam Project; x) The Pan African e-Network; xi) Silencing the Guns; xii) Outer Space.
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CHAPTER 1-4
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CHAPTER 5-ACRONYMS
CHAPTER 5: Critical Factors for Success, Potential Risks, Threats and Mitigation Strategies Chapter 5 identifies the critical factors for success, as well as the risks, threats and mitigation strategies for attaining the vision for 2063. • Critical success factors identified include: mobilizing African resources to finance and accelerate its transformation and integration; putting in place transformational leadership at all levels and in all fields; ensuring capable developmental states with the appropriate institutions, policies, human resources, systems and processes; changing attitudes and mind-sets to strengthen Pan African values of self-reliance, solidarity, hard work and collective prosperity and building on African successes, experiences and best practices; taking charge of Africa’s narrative and brand, to ensure that it reflects continental realities, aspirations and priorities and Africa’s position in the world; integrating Agenda 2063 into all national and regional development plans; strengthening and transforming national, regional and continental institutions and the manner of doing business, so as to effectively lead and drive the agenda for transformation and integration; and learning from the diverse, unique and shared experiences of various countries and regions as a basis of forging an African approach to transformation. • Risk factors identified include: conflict, instability and insecurity; social and economic inequalities; organized crime, drugs trade and illicit financial flows; poor management of diversities; religious extremism; failure to harness the demographic dividend; escalation of Africa’s disease burden; climate risks and natural disasters; and external shocks. • Mitigation strategies include: drawing on the resilience found in African societies and communities; economic diversification, climate resilience and disaster preparedness and prevention; and the priority that Agenda 2063 accords to well-educated citizens underpinned by skills revolution, science, technology and innovation. The Chapter also analyses mega and global trends likely to impact Africa’s growth and transformation such as: democratization, the rise and empowerment of the individual; climate change and the low carbon economy; natural resource depletion and demand shifts; demographics and urbanization; new technologies and innovation; changes in the global financial architecture; and global political and economic power shifts. CHAPTER 6: “Making It Happen” – Implementation, Monitoring, Evaluation, Financing, Capacities for Implimentation and Communication This chapter makes proposals on implementation; monitoring and evaluation; financing; partnerships; capacities for implementation; and communication and outreach: • Implementation arrangements and M&E is based on the need for the identification of all key stakeholders in the results chain from continental, regional and national levels. It also spells out the various roles and responsibilities in implementation and monitoring and evaluation. The First 10-Year Implementation Plan provides greater detail on these aspects. • Financing and domestic resource mobilization and intermediation strategy: detailed strategies for the financing of Agenda 2063 are presented and related to the attaining of each of the seven aspirations of Agenda 2063. In contrast to mobilizing external resources (through FDI, aid, trade, and debt relief), domestic resource mobilization (DRM) offers the advantages of greater domestic policy ownership and greater coherence with domestic needs, and higher development impact. For these reasons, Agenda 2063 requires Member States to place greater emphasis on domestic resources in the financing of Agenda 2063. It is anticipated that DRM has the potential to contribute, up to 70per cent to 80per cent, of the financing needs of the Agenda 2063. Agenda 2063 financing strategy is articulated around three dimensions: (i) domestic resource mobilization; (ii) intermediation of resource into investment and (ii) access to finance facilitation, including through project development fund, viability gap funding, capitalization fund, and bankability and investment- readiness support for projects, firms/SMEs, entrepreneurs and other parties. Agenda 2063 financing and DRM strategy involves different areas of policy and reform including: (a) public/fiscal revenue maximization; (b) enhanced savings mobilization; (c) curbing of illicit financial flows and fighting corruption; (d) regional bond market, regional stock exchange and African-owned private equity funds promotion; (e) Diaspora financial resources leveraging; (f) leveraging institutional financial resources of pension fund, sovereign wealth fund, insurance funds, governments’ foreign reserves and wealthy African citizen; and (g) promoting intra-African investment. A number of intermediation instruments and intervention areas are proposed: policy, knowledge and capacity building (enabling environment front); fund mobilization and intermediation (supply-side front); and access to finance facilitation (demand-side front). A more detailed elaboration can be found in “Agenda 2063 Financing and Domestic Resource Mobilization Strategy”. • Partnerships: the need to re-orient Africa’s partnerships in line with the continent’s ambitious agenda for economic, political, social transformation has been articulated based on the assessment of partnerships in place. • Capacities for implementation: building upon the NEPAD Capacity Development Strategic Framework (CDSF), this section looks at capacity needs at individual, organizational levels, and those related to the policy and enabling environment in line with Africa’s transformation agenda. • Communication and outreach: outlines the strategies and activities to galvanize and mobilize the continent’s population on a sustained basis to achieve Agenda 2063. LIST OF ACRONYMS 3ADI Africa Agro-Industry and Agro-Business Initiative AIDA Accelerated Industrial Development for Africa AfDB African Development Bank ACCNNR African Convention on Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources ACGF Africa Credit Guarantee Fund ACHR African Charter on Human Rights AGI African Governance Initiative AIB African Investment Bank AIDF Africa Infrastructure Development Facility AIF African Investment Fund AIMS Africa’s Integrated Maritime Strategy AMU Arab Maghreb Union AMV Africa Mining Vision APCI Africa Productive Capacity Initiative APRM Africa Peer Review Mechanism APSA African Peace and Security Architecture AQIM AL Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb ASACOF Africa-South America Cooperation Forum ASCI African Scientific and Innovation Council AU African Union AUC African Union Commission BDEAC Banque de Développement des Etats de l’Afrique Centrale BIAT Boosting Intra African Trade BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa CAADP Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program CADF China-Africa Development Fund CAPST Consolidated Action Plan for Science and Technology CENSAD Community of Sahel Saharan States CFTA Continental Free Trade Area CDSF Capacity Development Strategic Framework (NEPAD) COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CoSSE Committee of SADC Stock Exchanges CSI Corporate Social Investment CSO Civil Society Organization CSR Corporate Social Responsibility DAC Development Assistance Committee (of the OECD) DFI Development finance institution DREA Department of Rural Economy and Agriculture DRM Domestic Resource Mobilization DRC Democratic Republic of Congo EAC East African Community EBID ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EIB: European Development Bank ERA Economic Report of Africa EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FDI Foreign Direct Investment FfD: Financing for Development FOCAC Forum on China-Africa Cooperation GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GHA Greater Horn of Africa GDP Gross Domestic Product GNI Gross National Income GNP Gross National Product HDI: Human Development Index HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Country HLPASF High Level Panel on Alternative Sources of Funding HPS Health Plan and Strategy HSGOC NEPAD Heads of State and Government Orientation Committee IAIGC Inter Arab Investment Guarantee Corporation ICIEC Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit ICT Information Communication Technology IFF Illicit Financial Flows IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development IPPF NEPAD Infrastructure Project Preparation Facility IPSAS International Public Sector Accounting Standards ITF Infrastructure Trust Fund ITN Insecticide Treated Nets IEA International Energy Agency IFC International Finance Corporation IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development IMF International Monetary Fund IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JAES Joint Africa-EU Strategy LAC Latin American Countries LPA Lagos Plan of Action LRA Lord’s Resistance Army M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MCC Millennium Challenge Corporation MDGs Millennium Development Goals MFI Microfinance Institution MIGA World Bank Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MIN Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey MIP Minimum Integration Program MN Multinational Corporation MoU Memorandum of Understanding MSME Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development NGOS Non-Governmental Organizations NPCA NEPAD Coordinating Agency OAU Organization of African Unity ODA Official Development Assistance OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development PAF Pan African Fisheries Development PDF Project Development Fund PIDA Programme for Infrastructural Development in Africa PIPO Pan African Intellectual Property Organization PPP Public-Private Partnership PRC Permanent Representative Committee PSO Private Sector Organization PTA Bank Preferential Trade Area Bank RADS Resource-based African Development Strategy RECS Regional Economic Communities SACCO Savings and Credit Cooperative SACU Southern African Customs Union SADC Southern African Development Community SAP Structural Adjustment Program SMEs Small and Medium Scale Enterprises SPF Social Policy Framework SPS Sanitary and Phytosanitary System ST&I Science Technology and Innovation STAP Short Term Action Plan on Infrastructure STISA Science Technology and innovation Strategy for Africa TICAD Tokyo International Cooperation on Africa’s Development TVET Technical Vocational Education and Training UMA Union of Maghreb Arab UN United Nations UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNDESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs UNCBD United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity UNCCD United Nations Convention on Combatting Desertification UNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and Development UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa UNEP United Nations Environmental Program UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFPA United Nations Fund for Population Activities UNIDO United Nations Industrial Development Organization US United States USD United States Dollars VGF Viability Gap Funding WHO World Health Organization WB World Bank WBG World Bank Group
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CHAPTER 5-ACRONYMS
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CHAPTER 1 (PROPER)
1.1 Background Fifty years after the first thirty-three (33) independent African states gathered in Addis Ababa to form the Organization of African Union, now the African Union, the continent is looking ahead towards the next fifty years. Thus, on the occasion of the Golden Jubilee of the OAU, Africa’s political leadership acknowledged past achievements and challenges and rededicated itself to the Pan African vision of “an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the international arena.” The Summit tasked the African Union Commission (AUC), supported by the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) Planning and Coordinating Agency (NPCA), the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), to prepare a continental 50-year agenda through a people-driven process – hence Agenda 2063. The 50th Anniversary Solemn Declaration incorporates a pledge to make progress in eight priority areas (see text box). These priorities define the continental agenda, which will be integrated into regional and national development plans. Agenda 2063, the continent’s shared strategic framework for inclusive growth and sustainable development, takes account of past achievements, challenges and opportunities at the national, continental and global levels to provide the basis and context in which the continent’s transformation is being designed and implemented, including: • The durability of the Pan African vision and project, which guided struggles of African people and their descendants against slavery, and the disruptiveness of colonialism, apartheid and racial discrimination; and the commitment of the founders of the OAU to self- determination, integration, solidarity and unity. This today forms the backdrop for Africa’s renaissance, transformation and integration. • Lessons from global developmental experiences, such as: the significant advances by major countries of the Global South to lift huge segments of their populations out of poverty, improve incomes and catalyse economic and social transformation, and the global drive through the United Nations to find multi-lateral approaches to humanity’s most pressing concerns including human security and peace; the eradication of poverty, hunger and disease; and reduction in vulnerability to climate change risks. • An African turning point, with the end of the Cold War and the destruction of apartheid in Namibia and South Africa, reigniting Africa’s determination to end wars and conflicts, to build shared prosperity, to integrate, to build responsive and pluralist democratic governance and to end the continent’s marginalization and return to Africa’s priorities through the adoption of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development and the transformation of the OAU into the African Union. Thus over the last decade Africa has experienced sustained levels of growth, much greater peace and stability and positive movements on several human development indicators. Africa must sustain and consolidate this positive turnaround, using it as a springboard to ensure its transformation and renaissance. • The continuities and changes in the African development paradigm and dynamics, reflected in post-independence state - and nation-building, industrialization and modernization efforts, the fight against disease, and poverty; the focus on deepening Africa’s appreciation of its many, diverse assets and the push for integration, as captured in the OAU Charter, the Monrovia Declaration, the Lagos Plan of Action and NEPAD; the sectoral policy frameworks, strategies and architectures including agriculture, peace and security, infrastructure, science and technology, governance, industrialization, education, social policy, culture, sports and health and in normative frameworks around human and people’s, children’s and women’s rights. • The need for people-centred development and gender equality, which places the African People at the centre of all continental efforts, to ensure broad-based participation in the transformation of the continent, and the building of caring and inclusive societies and communities. It recognizes that empowering and removing all obstacles to women’s full participation in all areas and levels of human endeavour, is pivotal for any society reaching its full potential. Further, an enabling environment for its children and young people to flourish and reach their full potential is a pre-requisite to sustained innovation. • The ebbs and flows of the global context, and in our times the modern information technology revolution of real time communication across vast distances, globalization and changes in production, changes and advances in technology, production, trade expansion, development of new knowledge and labour markets; the opportunities presented by global demographic trends and the increasing global middle and working classes in emerging and developing countries and regions; the move towards multi-polarity with strong elements of uni-polarism remaining, global security alliances and the undisputable evidence of the impact of climate change. Humanity today has the capacities, technology and know-how to ensure human security and a decent standard of living for all inhabitants of our earth, yet children continue to die of preventable diseases, while hunger and malnutrition remain part of the human experience, and inequality between regions and countries and within countries persist. Over the last fifty years, African states have developed a number of responses to the exigencies of the times. Two major transitions stand out in this regard: The first transition came in the 1960s and 1970s - a decade after the majority of African countries gained independence. To continue advancing the agenda for economic emancipation and drawing lessons from the global energy crisis of the 1970s, Africa took the strategic decision to pursue continental integration as a strategy for economic development. The various liberation and economic development strategies of the seventies and eighties including the Lagos Plan of Action have their genesis in that transition. This period was also marked by the Bretton Woods agenda on Structural Adjustments, which saw the contraction of African economies with far reaching consequences on critical social sectors. The second transition occurred in the decade of the 1990s after the end of cold war and the adoption by the OAU of the Declaration of the Fundamental Changes in the World and Africa’s Response. The Declaration encapsulated Africa’s determination to tackle the peace and security challenges of the continent, including those within nations, to foster democracy and good governance as well as economic development through deepening integration of the continent. After two dead decades of development (80’s and 90’s) in Africa and the potential for increased marginalization, the continent turned the corner, with a better organized African Union and Regional Economic Communities (RECs). Since then the continent has witnessed impressive and sustained growth, the consolidation of democracy and good governance such as the introduction of the African Peer Review Mechanism, and improved gender equality, and through the promotion of human rights and the rule of law. As Africa celebrates half-century of independence, it is opportune to embark on a critical process of stock taking and mapping out a new long-term vision for the continent. “Agenda 2063: The Future We Want for Africa” is, therefore, an endogenous, shared strategic framework for inclusive growth and sustainable development for Africa’s transformation, and a continuation of the Pan African drive, for self-determination, freedom, progress and collective prosperity, in order to: • Galvanize and unite in action all Africans and the Diaspora around the common vision of a peaceful, integrated and prosperous Africa, driven by its citizens and taking its rightful place in the world; • Harness Africa’s continental endowments embodied in its people, history, cultures and natural resources, and geo-political position to effect equitable and people-centred growth and development; eradicate poverty; develop Africa’s human capital; build social assets, infrastructure and public goods; consolidate enduring peace and security; put in place effective and strong developmental states, participatory and accountable institutions; and empower women and youth to bring about the African renaissance; • Build on and accelerate the implementation of continental frameworks including, most notably, the Lagos Plan of Action, Abuja Treaty, NEPAD, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme–CAADP, the 2014 Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods (3AGTs), the Plan of Action for Accelerated Industrial Development in Africa (AIDA), the Minimum Integration Programme, the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), the AU/NEPAD Science and Technology Consolidated Plan of Action, and Africa’s Agro-industry and Agribusiness Development Initiative (3ADI) ; • Provide internal coherence, alignment and coordination to continental, regional and national frameworks and plans adopted by the AU, RECs and Members states; • Offer policy space/platform for individual, sectoral and collective actions to realize the continental vision; • Develop an implementation mechanism that is underpinned by a strong knowledge management system which enhances the quality of delivery through cutting edge research, innovation and codification of ground breaking experiences, promote sharing of experiences and learning from each other, and establish communities of practices; and • Delineate the respective roles and responsibilities of each stakeholder such as RECs, Member States, Civil Society and private sector in the formulation and implementation of Agenda 2063. This new effort to envision Africa’s long-term development trajectory is timely for several reasons. Globalization and the information technology revolution have provided unprecedented opportunities for countries and regions, including Africa, with the right policies to make significant advances and lift huge sections of populations out of poverty improve incomes and catalyse economic and social transformations. Africa is also now in a better position to build on the past and present successes such as the NEPAD experience. National, regional and continental efforts made to implement NEPAD, unseen during the LPA and the Abuja Treaty, have enabled AU to build institutions (e.g., APRM, etc.), demonstrate strong commitment to implement agreed agenda, generate valuable lessons that present a strong foundation for Agenda 2063, and which can be considered a logical continuation of NEPAD and other initiatives. The continent is more united, a global power to reckon with, capable of rallying support around a common agenda and speaking with one voice with capacity to negotiate and withstand the influence of forces that would like to see it divided. Furthermore, Africa’s regional institutions have been rationalized and the eight officially AU recognized Regional Economic Communities (CEN- SAD, COMESA, EAC, ECCAS, ECOWAS, IGAD, SADC and UMA) are today stronger development and political institutions that citizens’ can count on and Agenda 2063 can stand on. Finally, a confluence of factors presents a great opportunity for consolidation and rapid progress of the continent. These include: significant positive and sustained growth trajectory of many African countries; notable reduction in violent conflict, increased peace and stability, coupled with advances in democratic governance; prospects for a rising middle class, coupled with the youth bulge, which can act as catalyst for further growth, particularly in the consumer sectors and services; and the change in the international finance architecture, with the rise of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and improved flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The above-mentioned factors constitute a unique opportunity for Africa to capitalize upon. However, success depends upon acting in unity, transparency, willingness and capability to assess performance and correct mistakes and build on successes, placing citizens’ first, and sound governance and values. Long - term planning as per Agenda 2063 is not new. A number of African countries have developed long term plans and national visions (e.g., Uganda (2040), South Africa and Egypt (2050), Sierra Leone, Senegal and Cameroon (2035); while Malawi, Nigeria, Rwanda, Lesotho, Cote D’Ivoire are preparing to replace their respective visions that end in 2020, which would take them to beyond 2050. Agenda 2063 fits within this tradition and seeks to build upon and consolidate these efforts. 1.2 Agenda 2063 Preparatory Process Agenda 2063 was developed through an extensive consultative process of various African stakeholders, including Youth, Women, Civil Society Organizations’, the Diaspora, African Think Tanks and Research Institutions, Government Planners, Private Sector, the Media, inter-faith leaders, the Forum for Former African Heads of State and Government, African Island States and others2. In addition, ideas captured from continent wide sector ministerial meetings and meetings with the Regional Economic Communities are included. Outcomes of these consultations form the basis for Aspirations of the African People, the driver of Agenda 2063. Preparation of agenda 2063 also included an extensive review of the African development experience, analysis of challenges and opportunities of today as well as a review of national plans, regional and continental frameworks and technical studies. The plans and frameworks provided insights for the development priorities that form a plank for Agenda 2063, in particular in the First 10 Year Implementation Plan. Furthermore, a Resource Mobilization Strategy for Agenda 2063 has been developed looking at strategies for Africa to finance her own development. Lastly, a specific Agenda 2063 Communication Strategy has been designed and it is being implemented with the goal of engaging Africans from all works of life, and the Diaspora to galvanize action in support of Agenda 2063. 2 Written contributions/Inputs were also received from diverse stakeholders such as African governance forum, Association of Public Administration, African Trade Unions, RUFORUM, Wildlife Foundation, Cultural Heritage Foundation, African Airlines Association and many others Agenda 2063 is presented in three key documents listed below: • Agenda 2063 Framework Document that contains the vision for 2063, a comprehensive situational analysis of key issues, the goals, priorities, targets and indicative strategies, as well as proposals on “Making it happen” dealing with implementation, monitoring and evaluation; • Agenda 2063 Popular Version presenting the Agenda in simple terms to facilitate ownership by the African citizenry; and • First 10-year Implementation Plan (2013-2023) which lays out the immediate priorities and is designed to kick-start the journey towards 2063. 1.3 Overview of Agenda 2063 Framework Document The Framework document is organized in three parts and presented in six chapters as follows: (i) The Vision (context, challenges and opportunities for achieving it) - Chapters 1-3; (ii) The Transformation Framework outlining the goals, priority areas, targets and indicative strategies (Chapter 4) as well as the critical success factors - Chapter 5; and (iii) “Making it Happen”: implementation, monitoring, evaluation and associated accompanying measures – Chapter 6. The Vision for 2063 Chapter 1: Introduction Situates Agenda 2063 in the historical context of Pan Africanism, African Renaissance and the struggle for self- determination and economic independence; outlines the preparatory process; and presents the Agenda 2063 document. Chapter 2: The Vision and African Aspirations for 2063 Paints a detailed picture of where Africa would be in 2063 when the continent will be celebrating the centenary of the founding of the OAU. Chapter 3: Comprehensive Situational Analysis Examines the trends, challenges and opportunities in the political, economic, social, cultural fields and highlights key issues to address. The Transformation Framework Chapter 4: Agenda 2063 Goals, Priority Areas, Targets and Indicative Strategies Outlines Agenda 2063 goals, priority areas, targets and indicative strategies. Chapter 5: Critical Success Factors Risks and Mitigation measures Presents critical success factors, risks and mitigating strategies, as well as global megatrends likely to impact Africa’s future. Making it Happen Chapter 6: Making it Happen Presents implementation, monitoring and evaluation arrangements, financing, communication strategy and capacity for implementation. Annexes Annexes Annex 1; Highlights African initiatives for economic growth and transformation in the 1980s and 1990s Annex 2 Synthesizes the main areas of concern Agenda 2063 should address based on the comprehensive situational analysis in Chapter 3. Annexes 3 and 4 present the national and regional/continental results matrices, respectively
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CHAPTER ONE (PROPER)
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THE VISIONS AND AFRICA ASPIRATION
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Draft Lesson
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CHAPTER 3: AFRICA THE LAST FIFTY YEARS AND THE PRESENT: PROGRESS, CHALLENGES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR AGENDA 2063
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CHAPTER 3: AFRICA THE LAST FIFTY YEARS AND THE PRESENT: PROGRESS, CHALLENGES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR AGENDA 2063
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CHAPTER 4: AGENDA 2063: GOALS, PRIORITY AREAS, TARGETS AND INDICATIVE STRATEGIES
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CHAPTER 4: AGENDA 2063: GOALS, PRIORITY AREAS, TARGETS AND INDICATIVE STRATEGIES
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CHAPTER 5: CRITICAL FACTORS FOR SUCCESS, POTENTIAL RISKS AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES
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CHAPTER 5: CRITICAL FACTORS FOR SUCCESS, POTENTIAL RISKS AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES
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CHAPTER 6: “MAKING IT HAPPEN” – IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING, EVALUATION, FINANCING, COMMUNICATION & CAPACITIES FOR IMPLEMENTATION
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CHAPTER 6: “MAKING IT HAPPEN” – IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING, EVALUATION, FINANCING, COMMUNICATION & CAPACITIES FOR IMPLEMENTATION
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Aspiration 7: An Africa as a strong and influential global player and partner
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Aspiration 7: An Africa as a strong and influential global player and partner
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QUIZ
This quiz is meant to test your aptitude to ascertain your proficiency in the workings of Agenda 2063
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AFRICAN UNION AGENDA 2063 PROFICIENCY QUESTIONS
AGENDA 2063 FRAME WORK
About Lesson

For Agenda 2063 to achieve accelerated growth, broad structural transformation and sustainable development desired by African citizens, it is important that the most critical factors and processes for success are clearly identified and acted upon. These factors are political, economic, social, environmental, technological, legal and institutional and they directly or indirectly contribute to or trigger a transformative change or serve as a catalyst for the realization of the African aspirations for 2063.

Further, in the next 50 years, new and unforeseen risks and threats (i.e. factors likely to have a disruptive influence on Africa’s future) and/or opportunities for development are likely to emerge, while the ones we know today could assume new dimensions. In this context appreciating global mega trends and how these are likely to impact on Africa is of critical importance.

This chapter highlights these critical factors for Agenda 2063 success as well as potential risks/ threats and mitigation measures, to facilitate the realization of Agenda 2063.

5.1         CRITICAL FACTORS FOR SUCCESS

  • Leadership and political commitment: this is a critical factor that would shape Africa’s future and determine the success of Agenda The leadership challenge for accelerated economic growth, transformation and sustainable development that Africa faces today is more complex, albeit nor less demanding, than at the time of the struggle for independence from colonialism. There is a need for visionary leadership in all fields and at all levels: politics, business, industry, science, religion, education, and culture. Experiences from across the world suggest that success comes from a political leadership that has vision and commitment as well as the will and capacity to implement it.
  • Capable development state. Effective, accountable and development oriented institutions, efficient and strong bureaucracy, clear and pragmatic development vision and planning, public policy that supports national entrepreneurial class and builds public trust, and governance structure based on transparent laws and rules are critical for the realization of Agenda In cases where structural transformation has succeeded, the state has played a crucial role in the process. State capacities and institutions need to be strengthened to build a vibrant private sector, mobilize the population and build national consensus around a common development agenda, and ensure that adequate resources are committed to achieve it. Above all, the African state must be accountable and responsive to the needs of its population.
  • Participation, inclusion and empowerment of Effective participation of all stakeholders in the conception, design, implementation and monitoring and evaluation of Agenda 2063 is a critical success factor. Thus, Agenda 2063 must be fully participatory and be owned by all the continents’ stakeholders – the whole continent must be part of it to rekindle the spirit of working together to forge the destiny of the continent – the engagement of women and the youth in particular is critical. With empowered citizens, a responsive civil society, social and economic transformation can become a reality. The active engagement of the Diaspora can be one of the key drivers of change for Africa’s development; contributing to strengthening of African economic independence through investment, expertise and general political, cultural and social solidarity.

 

  • A results-based approach with concrete targets that are measurable and can be tracked and While providing a general framework and a common set of goals and targets, Agenda 2063 also takes account of Africa’s diversity and defines trajectories and addresses issues related to this diversity.
  • Revitalizing strategic planning and ensuring effective interface among national plans, regional initiatives and Agenda Integrated continental, regional and national planning based on series of short, medium and long term time horizons is vital for sound economic management, the pursuit of holistic and integrated (across sectors and physical space) development and, in a word, for ensuring the realization of Agenda 2063. Interface among national plans, regional development initiatives and Agenda 2063 is also critical for the success of Agenda 2063. While the ultimate responsibility for plan implementation rests with national governments, there is need for coordination and interface at all stages of the planning cycle, including in defining priority issues, setting of goals, plan formulation, implementation and monitoring and follow up.
  • Making Agenda 2063 an integral part of the African Renaissance. The African Renaissance calls for changes in attitudes, values and mindsets and inculcates the values of Pan Africanism, self-esteem, hard work, entrepreneurship and collective prosperity. Therefore, promoting the values of discipline, focus, honesty, integrity, an ethos of hard work are key for the realization of Agenda 2063, making it different from preceding continental frameworks and be successfully Agenda 2063 provides the opportunity for Africa to break away from the syndrome of “always coming up with new ideas but no significant achievements”.
  • Africa taking charge of its global narrative. Africa needs to take charge of its global narrative and brand, to ensure that it reflects the continent’s realities, aspirations and priorities and Africa’s position in the world. In this regard, Agenda 2063 reaffirms African unity and solidarity in the face of continued external interference including by multi-national corporations, attempts to divide the continent and undue pressures and illegal sanctions on some countries.

5.2         RISKS, THREATS AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES

Existing and new threats faced by the continent, include scrambles for its resources in the face of changing global demands and demographics; undue external influence in the affairs of the continent; Africa’s disproportionate burden of the impact of climate change; and the huge scale of illicit outflows of African resources and capital.

More specifically, the key risks/ threats are:

 

  • Conflict, instability and insecurity: in the past 50 years, many African countries have experienced varying degrees of conflict and insecurity caused by, among others,: (i) lack of sound governance and democracy; (ii) poor management of diversities – ethnic, religious; (iii) severe competition over scarce resources (land, minerals, water, timber, etc.);

(iv) poor economic management; and (v) natural and man-made disasters. Although many African countries are stable and much stronger today compared to the immediate post- independence years, the threat of state fragility lingers on with potential to spill over to neighbouring countries. The new trend in politics associated with the “street” can have a destabilizing effect if not properly managed.

 

  • Social and economic inequalities: income inequality in Africa is high and reaches 60per cent in some countries. The robust economic growth that Africa enjoyed over the past decades has increasingly concentrated wealth in the hands of a few with limited amounts trickling to the majority of the This combined with the huge urban youth unemployment and prevalence of poverty make social and economic inequality a major source of political, social and economic risks.
  • Organized crime, drugs trade and illicit financial flows: in the past decade, international drug cartels have used West Africa as a major transit route to Europe. The United Nations Office for Drugs and Crime has estimated that at least 50 tons of cocaine worth some US$2billion from Latin America transits through West Africa every year. The trade has corrupted government officials and the military in some countries. The proliferation of maritime piracy in Africa has also been closely related to state fragility. Today maritime piracy is staged mainly from two regions of Africa: the Horn and the Gulf of Guinea. Similar to drug trafficking, piracy also distorts regional economies. For example, Kenya’s tourist industry was seriously affected by the activities of the pirates and the government was forced to take extraordinary measures. Illicit financial flows divert much needed finance away from development of Africa to elsewhere in the
  • Poor management of diversities; religious extremism, ethnicism and corruption: since the creation of the OAU, Africa has been successful in forging solidarity and building upon shared values and history while taking full cognizance of her diversity (economic wealth, stage of development and culture). However, religious extremism, ethnicism and corruption have compounded the challenges of managing diversity because of sharp economic and social rifts they create among
  • Failure to harness the demographic dividend: In the next 50 years, Africa’s biggest single asset but also its potential Achilles heel is the large and youthful In 1994, Africa had a total population of 697 million (12.5 per cent of the world’s population); twenty years later in 2014, it reached 1.2 billion (15.1 per cent of the world’s population) and by 2060 it is projected at 2.7 billion (close to one third of the world’s population). Africa will also account for 28 per cent (1.2 billion) of the global youth population aged between 15 and 29. In many of Africa’s so-called fragile states, almost three-quarters of the population are aged below 30 years. Strategies and policies are needed to harness the potential and convert potential threats and risks to opportunities. Governments must be willing to take comprehensive actions, including, expanding education and training, creating job opportunities, combating diseases, enhancing socially and environmentally responsible investment.
  • Escalation of Africa’s disease burden: A combination of several factors including inadequate investments in public health system, its geographic location, i.e., largely tropical location, poverty, poor nutrition and sanitation have exposed Africa to disproportionately heavy disease burden compared to other developing countries. New viruses and diseases may also emerge in the future.
  • Climate risks and natural disasters: Climate change will continue to adversely impact Africa’s development for many years to come. In 2007, the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) declared Africa as one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by the interaction of multiple stresses

 

at various levels and the continent’s low adaptive capacity. Africa has also limited capacity for disaster preparedness and prevention, and every natural disaster leaves a trail of human and material destruction. There are also substantial risks of land grabs and privatization of the commons, which would accentuate vulnerability to climate risks.

  • External shocks: African countries have been and will continue to be vulnerable to the vicissitudes of global market forces. In the context of a 50-year time frame, changes in the global economic environment such as a collapse of commodity prices, financial crisis or some other developments in the political, social and environmental fields can potentially derail Africa’s development trajectory.

These threats and challenges can however, be mitigated and turned into opportunities through mounting collective strategies and effective public policy responses and actions to counter the most disruptive economic, social and environmental changes facing Africa.

Overcoming risks and addressing fragilities entails several dimensions:

 

  • Drawing on the resilience found in African societies – farming communities have shown a strong capacity to weather risks and create livelihoods in the most difficult environments; through civil society, communities are able to govern their affairs, manage disputes and protect the vulnerable; and African women play a vital role in forging peace and rebuilding livelihoods. Building upon these diverse forms of resilience can help Africa counter risks;
  • Building interlocking partnerships and institutions at community, member states, regional and continental levels to help absorb these disruptive changes and reduce associated community and state Building the capacities of RECs to find regional solutions to address drivers of fragility is of critical necessity.
  • Promoting economic diversification, climate resilience and disaster preparedness and Already envisaged by Agenda 2063, value addition in the agricultural and mining sectors, diversification of African economies away from dependence on agriculture based exports and also dependence on one or two primary commodities will be crucial risk mitigation mechanism.
  • Building human capital and promoting a skills Agenda 2063 accords priority to having well-educated citizens underpinned by skills revolution, science, technology and innovation combined with full access to quality health care. This has the potential to transform the risks of demographic and disease burdens into a demographic dividend and lead to the economic transformation of the continent.

These strategies and others will better position Africa to face up to global mega trends and forces discussed below.

5.3         GLOBAL MEGA TRENDS AND FORCES

Agenda 2063 is being implemented at a time of a fast changing Africa and the world. The key drivers of these changes are different forces originating within Africa (endogenous) and outside of Africa (exogenous). Drivers of these changes in 2063 will also be different from those of today given political, demographic, economic and social dynamics as well as shifts in societal interests and concerns.

 

Fifty years is a long time to meaningfully identify mega trends that are likely to significantly impact Africa’s growth trajectory and transformation. However, based on what stakeholders’ consultations on Agenda 2063 highlighted in terms of threats and opportunities, combined with literature review, the following mega trends have been identified:

Democratization, the rise and empowerment of the individual:

 

Rapid advances in technology and educational opportunities are producing smart, mobile, connected, borderless and informed citizens, which is unprecedented in human history. Africa’s ICT broadband penetration rate has increased rapidly from a base of only 7per cent in 2010; while the average number of internet users in Africa is about 12 per 100 people, with large variation among countries. Connecting the unconnected and the fast rising digital economy will create tremendous opportunities for growth and transformation that will reshape Africa’s economic and social landscape. It will also have a significant impact on the practice of democracy and governance.

Democratic and participatory governance structures are expanding in many parts of the world, more so in Africa. In response to demand from these, citizens are in turn creating an enabling environment for empowerment and freedom to unleash their ingenuity and energies for growth and transformation.

 
   

 

Climate change and the low carbon economy

 

Climate change impacts on Africa are expected to be severe, pervasive, cross-sectoral, long-term, and in several cases, irreversible. IPCC estimates median temperature increases of 3°C to 4°C for Africa, one-and-a-half times greater than the global mean increase of 2.0˚C and 4.5˚C by the end of the century, which, among other things, will force Africa’s fish to migrate to European waters.

 

It will also threaten Africa’s fragile peace and security through worsening environmental stress, inducing population displacement, spontaneous large-scale migration, land encroachment, and creating refugees.

 

Sea level rise and erosion of coastal areas are predicted to severely impact major African cities: Abidjan, Accra, Alexandria, Algiers, Cape Town, Casablanca, Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Djibouti, Durban, Freetown, Lagos, Libreville, Lome, Luanda, Maputo, Mombasa, Port Louis, and Tunis. Small Islands are also particularly vulnerable.

 

Over all, the prevalence and severity of extreme events such as heat and cold waves, dust storms, severe winds, floods, droughts, greater rainfall variability and patterns are expected to distort traditional crop cycles, and diminish agricultural and industrial raw materials productivity as well as export earnings, and increase plant and animal pests and diseases.

Natural resource depletion and demand shifts

 

Deforestation results in significantly environmental degradation, diminished earnings with negative social and environmental consequences, including: deterioration of ecological systems with resulting negative impacts on soil fertility, water availability and biological resources and acute shortages of fuel wood and construction material in many parts of the continent.

While managing natural resource scarcities and abundance has the potential to define Africa’s development, peace and security agenda, Africa’s challenges and opportunities include:

 

  • Water scarcity: which can trigger conflicts and crisis;

 

  • The scramble for Africa’s vast arable land resources;

 

  • Mineral processing technologies – improving efficiency of resource exploitation (yield rate); and developing applications for lower grade ore; and

 

  • Blue/ocean economy, including deep sea mining and reclaiming Africa’s maritime

 

Demographics and urbanization

 

At current growth rates, Africa’s population will reach 2.6 billion by 2063 – larger than that of India or China. The developed world’s population is ageing, paving the way for developing economies, Africa in particular, with their younger population to fill the gap. Africa is, thus, well positioned to reap the demographic dividend in the years to come given its projected 1.2 billion youth population by 2063.

Africa has the highest urbanization rate (3.23per cent) in the world with an urban population of 400 million doubling in the next 20 years reaching 1.5 billion people. However, about 61.7 per cent of the continent’s urban populations were living in slums in 2010, the highest rate in the world. Africa’s megacities of today, i.e., Cairo and Lagos suburbs with population of 19 million and 15 million respectively will be followed by the soon – to – be mega cities of the coming 50 years: Gauteng (Johannesburg and Tshwane), Western Cape (Cape Town), Luanda, Accra, Khartoum, Dakar, Brazzaville/Kinshasa,; Addis Ababa; Maputo; Dar es Salaam, and Nairobi

 

New technologies and innovation

 

Among the technologies that are likely to impact Africa are:

 

  • Agricultural biotechnology – which utilize gene-based techniques to improve agriculture productivity, farm management practices, produce more drought, water logging, and disease resistant varieties that help minimize the high costs of agrochemicals, pesticides, and water;
  • Health and health innovation systems – inventing new drugs, vaccines, nuclear medicine, diagnostic tools, to cope with emerging diseases as well as treat the untreatable;
  • Renewable energy and new technologies: driven by diversification of energy sources, enormous demand increase for energy arising from accelerated economic growth, carbon emissions become taxed and regulated, energy security, cleaner and affordable electricity with smart power meters and grids;
  • ICT, robotics and automation: all likely to witness rapid changes in the world in the coming

Changes in the global financial architecture

 

Issues raised in the WTO and multilateral trade liberalization negotiations suggest impending changes in global trade and financial regulations that would lead to increased financial integration

– capital is used effectively and that safeguards are built against sudden halts and capital flow reversals.

Global political and economic power shifts

 

The European and US bilateral trade engagements with Africa: the end of preferential schemes for Africa (AGOA, Everything But Arms (EBA) replacement by Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA), and end of the Cotonou Agreement) are possibilities that would impact Africa’s development trajectory.

Aid policy could also change. By 2063 aid flows to Africa could diminish to zero with the withering away of the constituency for aid to Africa in Europe and the decline of the relative income differential between Africa and Europe.

To effectively deal with these megatrends and transform potential risks into opportunities, Africa needs to invest in building its knowledge base, fully understand dramatic shifts constantly taking place, anticipate what may come and put in place appropriate and timely policies and strategies.

In particular, there will be a need to:

 

  • Ensure prevalence of human freedom and full connectivity while provisioning for growing numerous challenges to government structures and processes emanating from empowerment of the individual;
  • Bring up Africa’s science and technology to the frontiers of global change;

 

  • Manage natural resource revenues; tackling illicit capital flows and developing innovative development financing such as sovereign wealth funds including inter-generational funds based on exhaustible natural resources;

 

  • Build biotechnology into Africa’s indigenous genotypes of flora and fauna and ensure that biotechnology including genetically modified organisms (GMOs) would not easily destroy the diversity, quantity, and quality of Africa’s genetic resources;
  • Invest heavily in transforming and expanding the African pharmaceutical industry, including nuclear medicine to free Africa from scourges of communicable diseases;
  • Strengthen both domestic and regional financial markets, boosting resource mobilization and broadening access to financial

 

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